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10 Things I Think I Think: Alabama

Jesse_Simonton

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Aug 27, 2016
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Some Friday afternoon thoughts on Tennessee's showdown with No. 1 Alabama tomorrow...

1. Jeremy Pruitt isn’t one to usually pay lip service, so when he believes that this Alabama team — through six games — is the best one he’s ever seen on film?!?! Well, that’s saying something. Pruitt has coached against Alabama one time in his career, a 38-10 blowout loss as Georgia’s defensive coordinator in 2015. The Bulldogs allowed 379 yards to Alabama — which actually was the Tide’s second-fewest yardage mark of the season. Who held the Tide to their lowest total in 2015? That’d be Tennessee, in a 19-14 loss (364)

2. Tennessee doesn't have a realistic path to victory Saturday, but I expect the Vols to give the Tide their toughest test yet. Pruitt's inside information on Alabama's team should help some (although that deal go both ways), but there's no reason to expect Tennessee won’t be well-prepared. The Vols had a great game-plan against Auburn and should have a sound plan tomorrow vs. Alabama.

3. I don't believe Tennessee can challenge Alabama for four quarters (at this point, can any team in the country?) but the Vols could at least make the game interesting if they can force a few turnovers early/generate some splash plays. That means blocking a punt or recording a couple defensive touchdowns. Obviously, that’s asking a lot. But that's what it's going to take to keep this game competitive. You're not going to out-execute Alabama.

4. I'm going hard against evidence here, but I think Tennessee will be the first team to hold Alabama without an opening drive offensive touchdown. Alabama can cover a four-touchdown spread by accident, mainly because of its quick-strike attack. Their offense is led by Zeus at quarterback with 10 vicious vipers behind him. It’s insane and something we haven’t seen from them before. On the season, they had three opening drive touchdowns under 45 seconds. But here’s betting Pruitt finds a way to make them earn it a bit more Saturday.

5. Now, that won’t be easy because while West Virginia and Georgia have real receiver talent, Alabama touts the most impressive collection of pass-catchers Tennessee will face all year. Jerry Jeudy, DeVonta Smith and Henry Ruggs can all fly and are all averaging north of 19 yards a catch.

Bryce Thompson and Alontae Taylor have played really well for freshman, but they’ll have to be really disciplined against Alabama’s RPO game. Tua Tagovailoa has been lethally accurate on such throws, many going for long touchdowns.

6. Similarly, Alabama presents all sorts of problems for Tennessee’s linebackers and safeties, especially with Daniel Bituli out of the first half and Micah Abernathy likely missing the game. Tide tight end Irv Smith is a mismatch nightmare for anyone, and the Vols haven’t been good at covering tight ends, anyways. On the season, Smith already has three catches over 45 yards.

Tagovailoa’s overall numbers are stupid (14.1 yards per attempt, 21 TDs to 0 INTs), but as I tweeted earlier today, the sophomore has been particularly absurd throwing between the hashes (again: Alabama’s RPO game is ridiculous), going 55 of 65 for 1,147 yards (21 ypa) and 11 touchdowns.

7. Pruitt will no doubt devise some pressure looks for Tagovailoa, but thus far, blitzing hasn’t worked against the sophomore gunslinger, either. Per PFF, Tagovailoa is completing 67 percent of his attempts vs. a blitz for 532 yards and six touchdowns. I do wonder if Tennessee changes up some coverages and plays more zone Saturday. One major key to Tagovailoa’s success this season has been impeccable pass protection. He’s been sacked just three times all year.

8. Both of these teams are a bit dinged up, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Jalen Hurts end up playing the majority of snaps at quarterback for Alabama. With a bye week and then LSU, Alabama certainly won’t risk running Tua but it may decide its not even worth it to play him much past the first 15-20 minutes of the game.

9. Pruitt, Brian Niedermeyer and Chris Weinke all have strong insight into Alabama’s defensive personnel, so when it comes to attacking the Tide, I expect Tennessee to try and target JUCO corner Savion Smith and safety Xavier McKinney on the perimeter.

Now, both are quality players and proven ballhawks (5 combined interceptions this season), but they’ve also been flagged five times for pass interference and have allowed a couple touchdowns. McKinney has two PBUs and two INTs, but the other 14 targets thrown his way have all been completed. Meanwhile, Smith is allowing a team-high 18.1 yards per catch.

For a WR group that just recorded a bunch of back-shoulder catches against Auburn, that’s an enticing matchup. Tennessee is going to get 1-on-1 opportunities, so it must take advantage for the second straight week.

10. One recruiting thought: Tennessee is hosting a nice collection of 2020 prospects Saturday, but it is notable that 2019 RB Eric Gray also plans to be back in town. Ole Miss is also expecting Gray tomorrow, so his travel plans are worth monitoring.

Still, if Gray visits Tennessee, it will mark the second visit for the Michigan tailback commit in the last month. I don’t believe Gray ends up in Ann Arbor. He secured a spot, but the Memphis native is very likely to stay in the South. Ole Miss and Mississippi State are factors, but we’ll see what happens if Tennessee decides to go all in on another tailback for the 2019 class.
 
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