I empty out the notebook with 10 Things I Think I Think: Kentucky.
1. Let’s start with this: Saturday night isn’t a must-win for Tennessee, but it’s darn close to it, in my opinion.
It’s important for both 2019 — and the future.
In the present, a win Saturday would put Tennessee on the precipice of a bowl game, something unimaginable after its 0-2 start. It would also be another indicator of the Vols climbing out of the SEC East cellar-dweller and moving up toward the middle of the standings. There’s value in that. As former Auburn coach Gene Chizik told me this summer, Tennessee needs to worry about beating the South Carolinas, Kentuckys and Vandys of the world first before it turns it sights on Alabama and Georgia.
Well, the Vols destroyed South Carolina and have a chance to leapfrong another SEC midsize sedan Saturday.
On the flip side, a loss could be devastating to the team’s rebound this fall. The Vols could still make a bowl game, obviously, but the proposition becomes much dicier. Despite Mizzou’s strange season, that game will not be a layup — no matter what happens with the Tigers the next two weeks against Georgia and Florida. Could they lay down for the Vols? Maybe, but I don’t see Kelly Bryant and Barry Odom just quitting. Mizzou has been a totally different team at home vs. on the road, and spoiling Tennessee’s postseason hopes in a hypothetical must-win for the Vols could be easy motivation for a program that isn’t eligible for the postseason anyways.
The Vols have confidence right now, and are playing, on the whole, better than Kentucky. They need to find a way to win Saturday night, continue that momentum into the bye week, and have two chances to win one to ensure they get those much-needed 15 extra practices and all the goodwill that will come from making a bowl game after a disastrous start to the season.
2. Jeremy Pruitt has had success slowing down Kentucky the last few seasons, and while the Vols suffocated a better ‘Cats team just a year ago, I do think it’s a little apples and oranges comparing the two Kentucky offenses.
Terry Wilson was a reluctant runner. Lynn Bowden is not.
The ‘Cats are going to challenge Tennessee to maintain gap integrity and tackle in space — something neither Arkansas or Missouri could do. Georgia State had success against the Vols with some short speed option, and while that Tennessee defense didn’t have Daniel Bituli or Bryce Thompson, don’t be surprised if UK tries some similar runs.
Bowden is tough to tackle — he leads the SEC in yards per carry — but Tennessee should have confidence in stopping UK’s one-dimensional gadget attack. The Vols have been playing much faster to date, with the defensive line and linebackers in sync. They bottled up Kylin Hill (11 carries for 13 yards), who has run on everybody. South Carolina needed 30 runs to gain fewer than 80 yards. UAB did nothing on the ground.
Pruitt was pretty clear this week that the gameplan really won’t be any different than usual — despite Kentucky likely relying on a receiver at quarterback.
“We need to win the line of scrimmage,” Pruitt said. “This will be a line-of-scrimmage game. We need to keep edges on the defense. When the ball is out in space, we need to be able to tackle one-on-one. We cannot give up one-on-one to a blocker defensively, you have to make two guys block you. And we can’t let the ball be thrown over our heads. We have to eliminate explosive plays. We have to find a way to get some turnovers. It really doesn’t change every week, it’s kind of the same thing. Maybe what the other team does changes, but our philosophy is never going to change on how we want to play defense.”
3. You can run on Kentucky, but will Tennessee be able to?
The ‘Cats rank second-to-last in the SEC in rush defense, allowing close to 175 yards per game. They’ve also given up 17 rushing touchdowns, third-most in the conference.
But Tennessee has been particularly inefficient running the ball, particularly the last few weeks. Ty Chandler has sprinkled in some solid runs, but just a week ago, the Vols had 16 carries that went for one yard or fewer. Brandon Kennedy struggled against a massive nose tackle, and as left guard Trey Smith noted this week, Kentucky has two very similar players to UAB’s Tony Fair. The Wildcats have a 365-pound nose guard in Quinton Bohanna, while strongside ends Josh Paschal (6-3, 285) and Calvin Taylor (6-9, 305) are big space-eaters as well.
Can Tennessee’s OL buck up and create some movement up front? It could be the difference between leaving Lexington with a win or a frustrating loss.
4. I’m not sure how much Kentucky plans to throw it Saturday, but Tennessee’s cornerbacks must be fundamentally sound against UK’s jumpball magnet.
Former Iowa basketball player Ahmad Wagner is 6-5, 235 pounds, and on 29 targets this season, has 13 receptions (averaging 19.2 yards a catch) and eight drawn pass interference penalties. He has zero drops this season, too.
With so much focus on Bowden and the Wildcat rushing attack, Tennessee’s corners will likely be on island and they face a stiff challenge defending Wagner 1-on-1, especially in the red zone.
5. These two teams are quite similar in a slew of stats…
Tennessee’s scoring margin (points allowed vs. points scored) is .6
Kentucky’s is 0.
Both offenses average exactly 5.46 yards per play.
They rank 12th (UK at 40%) and 13th (Tennessee at 41.5%), respectively, in third down defense among SEC teams.
They’ve scored the second and third-fewest touchdowns in the red zone in the conference.
But despite their similarities, I picked the Vols to win on the road Saturday because Kentucky is terrible at getting takeaways and Tennessee has a significant advantage at kicker (UK has missed 5 of 11 field goal attempts). In a pick’em game, that could be all the matters.
1. Let’s start with this: Saturday night isn’t a must-win for Tennessee, but it’s darn close to it, in my opinion.
It’s important for both 2019 — and the future.
In the present, a win Saturday would put Tennessee on the precipice of a bowl game, something unimaginable after its 0-2 start. It would also be another indicator of the Vols climbing out of the SEC East cellar-dweller and moving up toward the middle of the standings. There’s value in that. As former Auburn coach Gene Chizik told me this summer, Tennessee needs to worry about beating the South Carolinas, Kentuckys and Vandys of the world first before it turns it sights on Alabama and Georgia.
Well, the Vols destroyed South Carolina and have a chance to leapfrong another SEC midsize sedan Saturday.
On the flip side, a loss could be devastating to the team’s rebound this fall. The Vols could still make a bowl game, obviously, but the proposition becomes much dicier. Despite Mizzou’s strange season, that game will not be a layup — no matter what happens with the Tigers the next two weeks against Georgia and Florida. Could they lay down for the Vols? Maybe, but I don’t see Kelly Bryant and Barry Odom just quitting. Mizzou has been a totally different team at home vs. on the road, and spoiling Tennessee’s postseason hopes in a hypothetical must-win for the Vols could be easy motivation for a program that isn’t eligible for the postseason anyways.
The Vols have confidence right now, and are playing, on the whole, better than Kentucky. They need to find a way to win Saturday night, continue that momentum into the bye week, and have two chances to win one to ensure they get those much-needed 15 extra practices and all the goodwill that will come from making a bowl game after a disastrous start to the season.
2. Jeremy Pruitt has had success slowing down Kentucky the last few seasons, and while the Vols suffocated a better ‘Cats team just a year ago, I do think it’s a little apples and oranges comparing the two Kentucky offenses.
Terry Wilson was a reluctant runner. Lynn Bowden is not.
The ‘Cats are going to challenge Tennessee to maintain gap integrity and tackle in space — something neither Arkansas or Missouri could do. Georgia State had success against the Vols with some short speed option, and while that Tennessee defense didn’t have Daniel Bituli or Bryce Thompson, don’t be surprised if UK tries some similar runs.
Bowden is tough to tackle — he leads the SEC in yards per carry — but Tennessee should have confidence in stopping UK’s one-dimensional gadget attack. The Vols have been playing much faster to date, with the defensive line and linebackers in sync. They bottled up Kylin Hill (11 carries for 13 yards), who has run on everybody. South Carolina needed 30 runs to gain fewer than 80 yards. UAB did nothing on the ground.
Pruitt was pretty clear this week that the gameplan really won’t be any different than usual — despite Kentucky likely relying on a receiver at quarterback.
“We need to win the line of scrimmage,” Pruitt said. “This will be a line-of-scrimmage game. We need to keep edges on the defense. When the ball is out in space, we need to be able to tackle one-on-one. We cannot give up one-on-one to a blocker defensively, you have to make two guys block you. And we can’t let the ball be thrown over our heads. We have to eliminate explosive plays. We have to find a way to get some turnovers. It really doesn’t change every week, it’s kind of the same thing. Maybe what the other team does changes, but our philosophy is never going to change on how we want to play defense.”
3. You can run on Kentucky, but will Tennessee be able to?
The ‘Cats rank second-to-last in the SEC in rush defense, allowing close to 175 yards per game. They’ve also given up 17 rushing touchdowns, third-most in the conference.
But Tennessee has been particularly inefficient running the ball, particularly the last few weeks. Ty Chandler has sprinkled in some solid runs, but just a week ago, the Vols had 16 carries that went for one yard or fewer. Brandon Kennedy struggled against a massive nose tackle, and as left guard Trey Smith noted this week, Kentucky has two very similar players to UAB’s Tony Fair. The Wildcats have a 365-pound nose guard in Quinton Bohanna, while strongside ends Josh Paschal (6-3, 285) and Calvin Taylor (6-9, 305) are big space-eaters as well.
Can Tennessee’s OL buck up and create some movement up front? It could be the difference between leaving Lexington with a win or a frustrating loss.
4. I’m not sure how much Kentucky plans to throw it Saturday, but Tennessee’s cornerbacks must be fundamentally sound against UK’s jumpball magnet.
Former Iowa basketball player Ahmad Wagner is 6-5, 235 pounds, and on 29 targets this season, has 13 receptions (averaging 19.2 yards a catch) and eight drawn pass interference penalties. He has zero drops this season, too.
With so much focus on Bowden and the Wildcat rushing attack, Tennessee’s corners will likely be on island and they face a stiff challenge defending Wagner 1-on-1, especially in the red zone.
5. These two teams are quite similar in a slew of stats…
Tennessee’s scoring margin (points allowed vs. points scored) is .6
Kentucky’s is 0.
Both offenses average exactly 5.46 yards per play.
They rank 12th (UK at 40%) and 13th (Tennessee at 41.5%), respectively, in third down defense among SEC teams.
They’ve scored the second and third-fewest touchdowns in the red zone in the conference.
But despite their similarities, I picked the Vols to win on the road Saturday because Kentucky is terrible at getting takeaways and Tennessee has a significant advantage at kicker (UK has missed 5 of 11 field goal attempts). In a pick’em game, that could be all the matters.
