In Friday’s column, I empty out the notebook with 10 Things I Think I Think on Tennessee-South Carolina.
1. With JT Shrout slated to make his first-career start Saturday, I’ll be curious early on observing what Jim Chaney does to help his redshirt freshman quarterback. Shrout has taken almost no snaps under center, which naturally shrinks the playbook.
And yet, Tennessee has found success the last two weeks running the ball out of pistol and spread formations. Chaney forced Alabama to tip its hand defensively by oftentimes lining up in empty before shifting a tailback into the backfield. That would be a smart design for Shrout to help simplify his reads via man or zone coverage. The issue here is basic game organization and clock management. Shrout, per folks at UT, has struggled both in the spring and fall with getting calls and checks off in time. In three plays at Alabama, he had one delay of game. In a likely low-scoring, punt-fest, the Vols can’t afford to give away five yards and key field position with unforced penalties. It could be smart to go tempo, fire to empty and then slow the game down with Chaney making the calls from the sideline/box.
The Vols will continue to implement quick RPOs, but Shrout’s best attribute is his ability to chuck it deep. With the Gamecocks likely to play aggressive press-man coverage, when Tennessee does opt to air it out, I expect similar plays like the one at Alabama, where Shrout nearly connected with Josh Palmer if not for a great PBU by Trevon Diggs. Those are safer throws compared to shots down the middle of the field where Shrout would be forced to make more reads/throw into traffic.
2. We discussed it on the Rocky Top Roundtable, but whichever team can avoid 3rd-and-long is probably going to win Saturday.
This is going to be a game with few points and possessions. The Vols rank last in the SEC in scoring offense vs. conference opponents (12.5 ppg), while South Carolina stands in the middle of the pack (21.6), with a couple pick-sixes aided it margin.
Meanwhile, the Vols have the worst third down defense in the SEC, but the Gamecocks rank 13th in the conference in conversions. Tennessee has actually been fairly solid at converting third downs (43%), ranking behind only Alabama, LSU, Auburn, UF and Georgia. As its offensive line has started to click a bit, the Vols have converted third downs at an identical clip (46%) the last two weeks. A similar success rate would go along way in grabbing win No. 3 tomorrow.
3. South Carolina will be without Rico Dowdle, one of the Cocks’ best playmakers. It’s a notable loss, especially considering how heavy Will Muschamp leans on the running game. Dowdle ran for a 140 yards against Tennessee in the win a year ago.
Carolina is the second-most efficient rushing offense in the SEC after Georgia. As a team, it averages 5.58 yards per carry. Tennessee has shored up its rush defense in conference play (7th in the SEC), and it needs a standout performance from Greg Emerson, Darel Middleton, Aubrey Solomon and the rest of the d-line. The Vols should get a boost by the return of Latrell Bumphus, adding another body to the mix. Matthew Butler was critical of his subpar play against Alabama and vowed earlier this week that he would have a bounce-back performance. That would go a long way in helping stymie South Carolina’s go-to attack.
4. I thought Pruitt gave an interesting answer as to why Tennessee’s defense has begun to play much better the last few weeks. The loss to Georgia State remains inexcusable, but according to the head coach, the Vols were forced to “water things down” early in the year because of injuries (Emmitt Gooden and Baylen Buchanan), a suspension (Bryce Thompson) and so much youth. Against GSU and BYU, the Vols allowed 67 points. They’ve given up 38 points defensively against Mississippi State and Alabama.
Pruitt used Quavaris Crouch as an example of someone much more comfortable in the system now, even despite changing positions in the last month.
“We lose three or four players at the beginning of the year. To find our best players, we’ve moved some guys around and it probably made us go backwards defensively. We really had to water down a whole lot,” Pruitt said.
“As we get some of these guys back, it has enabled us to go back to our foundation of what our kids know.
According to Tennessee’s head coach, the final step for the defense is being able to do everything Pruitt and Derrick Ansley want to call on third down. We saw many of those exotic blizes out of the dime rabbits package (Ja’Quain Blakeley as the lone DL) against Mississippi State, but with Daniel Bituli ejected for targeting and Henry To’oto’o out the first half, the Vols had to simply the package at Alabama.
Will a full compliment of personnel this weekend, will Pruitt go back to being aggressive in his third down calls?
“As the season has progressed here, we are able to do a little bit more,” Pruitt said.
“But probably, from a schematics standpoint, especially on third down which is probably where you see the biggest part that we have watered down, is moving guys back and fourth and really not having enough depth. Just plug and play at each position.”
5. A couple individual matchups in the trenches to keep an eye on Saturday will be DJ Wonnum vs. Wanya Morris and Trey Smith or Brandon Kennedy going heads-up against Javon Kinlaw. Wonnum gave Marcus Tatum fits in this game a year ago (two sacks, three hurries), while Kinlaw, a 6-6, 315-pound potential Top 20 pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, helped spearhead the upset over Georgia earlier this season by completely disrupting the interior OL. If the Vols can holdup against Carolina’s defensive line, then they can find some holes in the Gamecocks defense (they’ve allowed third-most 20+ yard plays in SEC).
6. A couple personnel predictions: I think Tennessee starts the same five offensive lineman (Morris, Smith, Kennedy, Jerome Carvin and Darnell Wright), but I don’t think the unit sees every snap together like it did last week. Jahmir Johnson will likely see time, and I wouldn’t be stunned if Riley Locklear got some action, too.
Meanwhile, it wasn’t an accident that Jaylen McCollough spoke with the media this week. He’s a smart and confident freshman who is seriously pushing Theo Jackson for the starting spot. He’ll play a lot this weekend, and could potentially start.
7. Tennessee’s special teams must be up to the task Saturday. South Carolina ranks No. 2 nationally in net punting, so the Vols cannot giveaway field position with poor punts of their own by Paxton Brooks or Joe Doyle.
8. A single Saturday is rarely the difference in whether a prospect chooses a school or not, but this is a big weekend for Tennessee recruiting. There’s no sugarcoating that. The Vols not only need a solid showing on the field, but they need to cement themselves with several key targets. This could be the last time Omari Thomas comes to campus before a decision. Can Pruitt & Co., make Thomas’ family feel secure enough in the distance from Memphis? Elsewhere, will Thieu Jones-Bell decide to take an official visit with Tennessee in December? Are Jay Hardy and Tyler Baron ready to be done with the process? There’s lots of questions that could be potentially answered coming out of this weekend.
9. My favorite quote of the week goes to the head coach, who displayed as much media savviness in a couple appearances this week as he’s had in his entire run thus far as the Vols’ coach.
Pruitt was asked a rather pointed question Wednesday about Tennessee fans potentially booing quarterback Jarrett Guarantano this weekend.
This is a really quality soundbite: “In my time here at the University of Tennessee as a coach and in my time as a coach participating against the University of Tennessee and in my time as a player, you are not going to find a more passionate fan base than the fans here at Tennessee. I have a hard time believing that when it comes down to game time, everybody is wanting to win and I think they trust the fact that we’re going to play the players that give us the best chance to win and have success. I think when South Carolina comes on the field they’ll probably be booing and I think when South Carolina has the ball they’ll be loud just like they have every game. They’ll support our players and continue to do that.”
10. In terms of gambling information on the game, Tennessee remains a 4.5-point home underdog. The line really hasn’t moved despite the uncertainty at quarterback for the Vols. The total has also sat around 47.5, which honestly, seems a bit high considering that both teams will likely take the air out of the football.
Nearly 60% of the public bets are on South Carolina.
SP+ predicts Tennessee to cover but lose 26-22. The Vols have a 43% win probability, per Bill Connelly. FPI is slightly higher on the Gamecocks’ chances, giving them a 61.2% win probability.
Notably, the last eight games in this series have been decided by a single score.
1. With JT Shrout slated to make his first-career start Saturday, I’ll be curious early on observing what Jim Chaney does to help his redshirt freshman quarterback. Shrout has taken almost no snaps under center, which naturally shrinks the playbook.
And yet, Tennessee has found success the last two weeks running the ball out of pistol and spread formations. Chaney forced Alabama to tip its hand defensively by oftentimes lining up in empty before shifting a tailback into the backfield. That would be a smart design for Shrout to help simplify his reads via man or zone coverage. The issue here is basic game organization and clock management. Shrout, per folks at UT, has struggled both in the spring and fall with getting calls and checks off in time. In three plays at Alabama, he had one delay of game. In a likely low-scoring, punt-fest, the Vols can’t afford to give away five yards and key field position with unforced penalties. It could be smart to go tempo, fire to empty and then slow the game down with Chaney making the calls from the sideline/box.
The Vols will continue to implement quick RPOs, but Shrout’s best attribute is his ability to chuck it deep. With the Gamecocks likely to play aggressive press-man coverage, when Tennessee does opt to air it out, I expect similar plays like the one at Alabama, where Shrout nearly connected with Josh Palmer if not for a great PBU by Trevon Diggs. Those are safer throws compared to shots down the middle of the field where Shrout would be forced to make more reads/throw into traffic.
2. We discussed it on the Rocky Top Roundtable, but whichever team can avoid 3rd-and-long is probably going to win Saturday.
This is going to be a game with few points and possessions. The Vols rank last in the SEC in scoring offense vs. conference opponents (12.5 ppg), while South Carolina stands in the middle of the pack (21.6), with a couple pick-sixes aided it margin.
Meanwhile, the Vols have the worst third down defense in the SEC, but the Gamecocks rank 13th in the conference in conversions. Tennessee has actually been fairly solid at converting third downs (43%), ranking behind only Alabama, LSU, Auburn, UF and Georgia. As its offensive line has started to click a bit, the Vols have converted third downs at an identical clip (46%) the last two weeks. A similar success rate would go along way in grabbing win No. 3 tomorrow.
3. South Carolina will be without Rico Dowdle, one of the Cocks’ best playmakers. It’s a notable loss, especially considering how heavy Will Muschamp leans on the running game. Dowdle ran for a 140 yards against Tennessee in the win a year ago.
Carolina is the second-most efficient rushing offense in the SEC after Georgia. As a team, it averages 5.58 yards per carry. Tennessee has shored up its rush defense in conference play (7th in the SEC), and it needs a standout performance from Greg Emerson, Darel Middleton, Aubrey Solomon and the rest of the d-line. The Vols should get a boost by the return of Latrell Bumphus, adding another body to the mix. Matthew Butler was critical of his subpar play against Alabama and vowed earlier this week that he would have a bounce-back performance. That would go a long way in helping stymie South Carolina’s go-to attack.
4. I thought Pruitt gave an interesting answer as to why Tennessee’s defense has begun to play much better the last few weeks. The loss to Georgia State remains inexcusable, but according to the head coach, the Vols were forced to “water things down” early in the year because of injuries (Emmitt Gooden and Baylen Buchanan), a suspension (Bryce Thompson) and so much youth. Against GSU and BYU, the Vols allowed 67 points. They’ve given up 38 points defensively against Mississippi State and Alabama.
Pruitt used Quavaris Crouch as an example of someone much more comfortable in the system now, even despite changing positions in the last month.
“We lose three or four players at the beginning of the year. To find our best players, we’ve moved some guys around and it probably made us go backwards defensively. We really had to water down a whole lot,” Pruitt said.
“As we get some of these guys back, it has enabled us to go back to our foundation of what our kids know.
According to Tennessee’s head coach, the final step for the defense is being able to do everything Pruitt and Derrick Ansley want to call on third down. We saw many of those exotic blizes out of the dime rabbits package (Ja’Quain Blakeley as the lone DL) against Mississippi State, but with Daniel Bituli ejected for targeting and Henry To’oto’o out the first half, the Vols had to simply the package at Alabama.
Will a full compliment of personnel this weekend, will Pruitt go back to being aggressive in his third down calls?
“As the season has progressed here, we are able to do a little bit more,” Pruitt said.
“But probably, from a schematics standpoint, especially on third down which is probably where you see the biggest part that we have watered down, is moving guys back and fourth and really not having enough depth. Just plug and play at each position.”
5. A couple individual matchups in the trenches to keep an eye on Saturday will be DJ Wonnum vs. Wanya Morris and Trey Smith or Brandon Kennedy going heads-up against Javon Kinlaw. Wonnum gave Marcus Tatum fits in this game a year ago (two sacks, three hurries), while Kinlaw, a 6-6, 315-pound potential Top 20 pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, helped spearhead the upset over Georgia earlier this season by completely disrupting the interior OL. If the Vols can holdup against Carolina’s defensive line, then they can find some holes in the Gamecocks defense (they’ve allowed third-most 20+ yard plays in SEC).
6. A couple personnel predictions: I think Tennessee starts the same five offensive lineman (Morris, Smith, Kennedy, Jerome Carvin and Darnell Wright), but I don’t think the unit sees every snap together like it did last week. Jahmir Johnson will likely see time, and I wouldn’t be stunned if Riley Locklear got some action, too.
Meanwhile, it wasn’t an accident that Jaylen McCollough spoke with the media this week. He’s a smart and confident freshman who is seriously pushing Theo Jackson for the starting spot. He’ll play a lot this weekend, and could potentially start.
7. Tennessee’s special teams must be up to the task Saturday. South Carolina ranks No. 2 nationally in net punting, so the Vols cannot giveaway field position with poor punts of their own by Paxton Brooks or Joe Doyle.
8. A single Saturday is rarely the difference in whether a prospect chooses a school or not, but this is a big weekend for Tennessee recruiting. There’s no sugarcoating that. The Vols not only need a solid showing on the field, but they need to cement themselves with several key targets. This could be the last time Omari Thomas comes to campus before a decision. Can Pruitt & Co., make Thomas’ family feel secure enough in the distance from Memphis? Elsewhere, will Thieu Jones-Bell decide to take an official visit with Tennessee in December? Are Jay Hardy and Tyler Baron ready to be done with the process? There’s lots of questions that could be potentially answered coming out of this weekend.
9. My favorite quote of the week goes to the head coach, who displayed as much media savviness in a couple appearances this week as he’s had in his entire run thus far as the Vols’ coach.
Pruitt was asked a rather pointed question Wednesday about Tennessee fans potentially booing quarterback Jarrett Guarantano this weekend.
This is a really quality soundbite: “In my time here at the University of Tennessee as a coach and in my time as a coach participating against the University of Tennessee and in my time as a player, you are not going to find a more passionate fan base than the fans here at Tennessee. I have a hard time believing that when it comes down to game time, everybody is wanting to win and I think they trust the fact that we’re going to play the players that give us the best chance to win and have success. I think when South Carolina comes on the field they’ll probably be booing and I think when South Carolina has the ball they’ll be loud just like they have every game. They’ll support our players and continue to do that.”
10. In terms of gambling information on the game, Tennessee remains a 4.5-point home underdog. The line really hasn’t moved despite the uncertainty at quarterback for the Vols. The total has also sat around 47.5, which honestly, seems a bit high considering that both teams will likely take the air out of the football.
Nearly 60% of the public bets are on South Carolina.
SP+ predicts Tennessee to cover but lose 26-22. The Vols have a 43% win probability, per Bill Connelly. FPI is slightly higher on the Gamecocks’ chances, giving them a 61.2% win probability.
Notably, the last eight games in this series have been decided by a single score.
