https://www.baldingsworld.com/2020/...ding-and-how-many-undetected-cases-are-there/
Long but well worth the read.
In short, not only are the real number of cases under estimated based upon observed confirmation data, they are likely enormously under estimated. As one can see from the research by in country researchers from Iran to Italy and Japan, there is a range of magnitude but there is significant agreement that the real number is off by at least numerous multiples.
This post has already gone on too long but I wanted to document the logic and the research that supports what I think is happening. The two primary key ideas so far are that corona has spread significantly faster than the WHO estimates and that there are large amounts of undetected cases of corona. So what is the importance of all of this and what does this mean for policy makers?
Long but well worth the read.
In short, not only are the real number of cases under estimated based upon observed confirmation data, they are likely enormously under estimated. As one can see from the research by in country researchers from Iran to Italy and Japan, there is a range of magnitude but there is significant agreement that the real number is off by at least numerous multiples.
This post has already gone on too long but I wanted to document the logic and the research that supports what I think is happening. The two primary key ideas so far are that corona has spread significantly faster than the WHO estimates and that there are large amounts of undetected cases of corona. So what is the importance of all of this and what does this mean for policy makers?
