Bill, I read the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team report as well as this explanation in a historical context.
Essentially, it says that by doing nothing, 4 million Americans die. Through the mitigation strategy - i.e. social distancing and "flattening the curve" - it says that 1.1-2 million Americans will die. However, it also says that the suppression strategy, or "shutting everything down for 18 months" - will lead to only a few thousand people dying.
Do you agree with these numbers, and if so, is there any excuse for not immediately issuing a shelter in place order for the entire country?
Essentially, it says that by doing nothing, 4 million Americans die. Through the mitigation strategy - i.e. social distancing and "flattening the curve" - it says that 1.1-2 million Americans will die. However, it also says that the suppression strategy, or "shutting everything down for 18 months" - will lead to only a few thousand people dying.
Do you agree with these numbers, and if so, is there any excuse for not immediately issuing a shelter in place order for the entire country?
- thisisbillgates [S] 3069 points an hour ago
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Fortunately it appears the parameters used in that model were too negative. The experience in China is the most critical data we have. They did their "shut down" and were able to reduce the number of cases. They are testing widely so they see rebounds immediately and so far there have not been a lot. They avoided widespread infection. The Imperial model does not match this experience. Models are only as good as the assumptions put into them. People are working on models that match what we are seeing more closely and they will become a key tool. A group called Institute for Disease Modeling that I fund is one of the groups working with others on this.- thisisbillgates [S] 1127 points an hour ago
One tool that is helping us is looking at the genetics of the virus to understand the tree of infection.
- thisisbillgates [S] 1127 points an hour ago
- Link to full AMA on Reddit:
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