[Warning: Long; you've been warned].
This is my opinion; I have no inside info; and the following is my analysis based on inputs in the public domain:
CBJ faces perhaps the most important coaching decision of his career this spring, QD or JG. At first glance, the choice is between a more experienced Jr. and a Rs. Fr. with a lot of promise and hype, but it's deeper than that. CBJ has to both set the tone for this season and the rest of his tenure at UT with this pick, right now, and for that reason, I believe it will be JG.
CBJ not only needs victories, but he needs excitement and a future to sell at a point in time where all eyes are on the football program to resurrect, not only UT football, but UT athletics generally. CBJ needs a cohesive, packaged message that clearly conveys the direction of the program and the goals he's set for it. He also needs decisions he is making now to support decisions and strategic choices he's made in the past.
Part of CBJ's early appeal to recruits and the Vol faithful alike was the promise of a better tomorrow. Without that appeal, Butch became an average in-game coach with well above-average recruiting ability. Currently, he's a high-level recruiter with limited ammo relegated to watching sexier, newer head coaches occupy his once prime real estate of "new best thing in the SEC East." But structurally, he's rebuilt the program so a relatively small catalyst could give the program the energy it needs to climb back into SEC prominence.
This year, CBJ has to do what's in CBJ's best interests, which is find a way to win, find a way to generate excitement, and then build it to last so that his position is firmly solidified. The QB battle is the epicenter of the answer to CBJ's 2017 problems, and because I believe Butch will see the competition through the lens I've described above and below, I believe he'll pick JG.
My reasoning:
CBJ will pick JG because the selection will strengthen and reinforce decisions he's already made. He brought in JG to be the QB of the future; everyone knows it. He recruited him because he is the perfect mold for CBJ's system; and he will select him because doing so demonstrates a coherent plan to overhaul UT football. It reinforces his offensive scheme; it sends a clear message to recruits like Fields, Jones, and Rogers that they fit the mold; and it helps guard against him having to face criticism for his offensive scheme, whether because of his recruited personnel or because of the competition/schemes in the SEC in general.
CBJ will pick JG because the selection will bring excitement to the fanbase and increase energy prior to next season. Fans are expecting a slump from our Vols this year, but if JG can be half of what he's billed to be, fans will clamor to fill the stadium and bring their excitement with them. This will be a significant part of the equation.
CBJ will pick JG because it will give him the excuse of youth once more. Anyone who's watched Butch knows his oft-quoted line about Team 119 being the "youngest team from Mars" or whatever; the same couldn't be said about Team 120. But don't look, with a Freshmen at the helm (and mark it down; notice how "redshirt" will get dropped off the front of JG's name often with Butch) and with so many new faces in the WR corps and at RB, this offense will look young in deed. The "Youth Excuse" can make a comeback, if Butch needs it.
Picking JG gives Butch more leeway if the season goes South. By picking the Rs. Fr. over the Jr., CBJ will be sending a clear message that he will live or die this season with a Rs. Fr's mistakes. Once CBJ makes JG the starter, he has to manage it right and he shouldn't pull JG except under the most egregious of circumstances. But the Vol faithful will also recognize that a Rs. Fr. is at the helm. We are unlikely to hold CBJ to the same standard as when he had a Senior QB at the helm. This could benefit him while also giving JG time to grow and develop into the program builder we desire. In the event the season goes South, all CBJ has to say is "well, we had a Rs. Fr. at the helm, but look how good he did and the future is bright." With a schedule that sets up nicely for another 8-4 season (including slip ups), CBJ has a solid message here that will likely resonate among the Vol faithful.
Picking JG seemingly bucks Butch's (well-earned) perception for being conservative. The Rs. Fr over the veteran Jr. definitely isn't a conservative pick, so again, the pick itself conveys a message to the fanbase and to the rest of the league that Butch is turning aggressive. How it'll be received and to what extent it matters, are TBD.
Picking JG can help mask many of the offensive deficiencies we may have going into this season. With Malone gone and J. Smith undergoing surgeries, there are no proven WRs on the roster other than JJ and maybe Byrd, if you call his last year's production "proven." While I'll give him that description, at best, we have JJ and Byrd as go-tos at the moment. QD is more athletic than people give him credit for but he's nowhere close to Dobbs and likely nowhere near JG in terms of running ability. The lack of experience at WR combined with a lessened run threat will likely mean that the passing game may be limited initially by design. A QB who can make something happen when options 1-3 are gone thus becomes a valuable commodity.
Picking JG helps CBJ sell a narrative of building all-in for the long-haul while allowing him to best address his short term needs of winning this year. A JG selection means CBJ sees himself as being here longer than one or two years. You would expect him to be here as long as JG is here, which would be three years, and for CBJ to be here for three years, that would require a contract extension which would likely box both him and the university into a deal longer than 3 years with a more symmetrical buyout to incent both parties to remain faithful to the agreement. Given CBJ's close relationship with JG's family, it's not out of the realm of possibility that JG would leave if Butch were to leave. Currie may keep this in mind when negotiating with CBJ or setting expectations for this season.
Conclusion: With the right choice and under the right circumstances, CBJ's decision will be seen as his single, most important decision point during his time here. He's got to get it right, and that's why it all points towards JG. QD is probably a great QB, but to pick QD, I think you have to believe you have a better chance of winning the SEC this year or next year, than next year or the year after with JG. The reports coming out of the complex are that they are pretty even, even if one has an edge in this attribute or another. But if they are even, IMO, it should be JG for all the beneficial reasons to Butch and UT that I've stated above.
This is my opinion; I have no inside info; and the following is my analysis based on inputs in the public domain:
CBJ faces perhaps the most important coaching decision of his career this spring, QD or JG. At first glance, the choice is between a more experienced Jr. and a Rs. Fr. with a lot of promise and hype, but it's deeper than that. CBJ has to both set the tone for this season and the rest of his tenure at UT with this pick, right now, and for that reason, I believe it will be JG.
CBJ not only needs victories, but he needs excitement and a future to sell at a point in time where all eyes are on the football program to resurrect, not only UT football, but UT athletics generally. CBJ needs a cohesive, packaged message that clearly conveys the direction of the program and the goals he's set for it. He also needs decisions he is making now to support decisions and strategic choices he's made in the past.
Part of CBJ's early appeal to recruits and the Vol faithful alike was the promise of a better tomorrow. Without that appeal, Butch became an average in-game coach with well above-average recruiting ability. Currently, he's a high-level recruiter with limited ammo relegated to watching sexier, newer head coaches occupy his once prime real estate of "new best thing in the SEC East." But structurally, he's rebuilt the program so a relatively small catalyst could give the program the energy it needs to climb back into SEC prominence.
This year, CBJ has to do what's in CBJ's best interests, which is find a way to win, find a way to generate excitement, and then build it to last so that his position is firmly solidified. The QB battle is the epicenter of the answer to CBJ's 2017 problems, and because I believe Butch will see the competition through the lens I've described above and below, I believe he'll pick JG.
My reasoning:
CBJ will pick JG because the selection will strengthen and reinforce decisions he's already made. He brought in JG to be the QB of the future; everyone knows it. He recruited him because he is the perfect mold for CBJ's system; and he will select him because doing so demonstrates a coherent plan to overhaul UT football. It reinforces his offensive scheme; it sends a clear message to recruits like Fields, Jones, and Rogers that they fit the mold; and it helps guard against him having to face criticism for his offensive scheme, whether because of his recruited personnel or because of the competition/schemes in the SEC in general.
CBJ will pick JG because the selection will bring excitement to the fanbase and increase energy prior to next season. Fans are expecting a slump from our Vols this year, but if JG can be half of what he's billed to be, fans will clamor to fill the stadium and bring their excitement with them. This will be a significant part of the equation.
CBJ will pick JG because it will give him the excuse of youth once more. Anyone who's watched Butch knows his oft-quoted line about Team 119 being the "youngest team from Mars" or whatever; the same couldn't be said about Team 120. But don't look, with a Freshmen at the helm (and mark it down; notice how "redshirt" will get dropped off the front of JG's name often with Butch) and with so many new faces in the WR corps and at RB, this offense will look young in deed. The "Youth Excuse" can make a comeback, if Butch needs it.
Picking JG gives Butch more leeway if the season goes South. By picking the Rs. Fr. over the Jr., CBJ will be sending a clear message that he will live or die this season with a Rs. Fr's mistakes. Once CBJ makes JG the starter, he has to manage it right and he shouldn't pull JG except under the most egregious of circumstances. But the Vol faithful will also recognize that a Rs. Fr. is at the helm. We are unlikely to hold CBJ to the same standard as when he had a Senior QB at the helm. This could benefit him while also giving JG time to grow and develop into the program builder we desire. In the event the season goes South, all CBJ has to say is "well, we had a Rs. Fr. at the helm, but look how good he did and the future is bright." With a schedule that sets up nicely for another 8-4 season (including slip ups), CBJ has a solid message here that will likely resonate among the Vol faithful.
Picking JG seemingly bucks Butch's (well-earned) perception for being conservative. The Rs. Fr over the veteran Jr. definitely isn't a conservative pick, so again, the pick itself conveys a message to the fanbase and to the rest of the league that Butch is turning aggressive. How it'll be received and to what extent it matters, are TBD.
Picking JG can help mask many of the offensive deficiencies we may have going into this season. With Malone gone and J. Smith undergoing surgeries, there are no proven WRs on the roster other than JJ and maybe Byrd, if you call his last year's production "proven." While I'll give him that description, at best, we have JJ and Byrd as go-tos at the moment. QD is more athletic than people give him credit for but he's nowhere close to Dobbs and likely nowhere near JG in terms of running ability. The lack of experience at WR combined with a lessened run threat will likely mean that the passing game may be limited initially by design. A QB who can make something happen when options 1-3 are gone thus becomes a valuable commodity.
Picking JG helps CBJ sell a narrative of building all-in for the long-haul while allowing him to best address his short term needs of winning this year. A JG selection means CBJ sees himself as being here longer than one or two years. You would expect him to be here as long as JG is here, which would be three years, and for CBJ to be here for three years, that would require a contract extension which would likely box both him and the university into a deal longer than 3 years with a more symmetrical buyout to incent both parties to remain faithful to the agreement. Given CBJ's close relationship with JG's family, it's not out of the realm of possibility that JG would leave if Butch were to leave. Currie may keep this in mind when negotiating with CBJ or setting expectations for this season.
Conclusion: With the right choice and under the right circumstances, CBJ's decision will be seen as his single, most important decision point during his time here. He's got to get it right, and that's why it all points towards JG. QD is probably a great QB, but to pick QD, I think you have to believe you have a better chance of winning the SEC this year or next year, than next year or the year after with JG. The reports coming out of the complex are that they are pretty even, even if one has an edge in this attribute or another. But if they are even, IMO, it should be JG for all the beneficial reasons to Butch and UT that I've stated above.
