Odds from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Aug. 22.
Tennessee Volunteers
National title odds: 12-1
Season win total: 9.5
FPI win total projection: 10.4
Phil Steele
Strengths: The Vols are the most experienced Power 5 team in the country and third overall. They have quarterback Joshua Dobbs, two superb running backs in Jalen Hurd and Alvin Kamara and four returning starters on the offensive line. Every level of the defense has a potential first-round draft pick in defensive end Derek Barnett, linebacker Jalen Reeves-Maybin and cornerback Cameron Sutton. They also have my No. 3-rated special teams.
Weaknesses: I have all eight units ranked in my top 26, but the lowest is receivers. The Tennessee corps has been banged up and needs to stay healthy and improve its productivity. The Vols also need to learn how to finish games after blowing a pair of double-digit fourth-quarter leads vs. Oklahoma and Florida in 2015, and allowing Alabama a game-winning touchdown with 2:24 left.
Over/under: The total of 9.5 appears cheap. Tennessee figures to be a double-digit favorite in eight games, though the Vols have a killer four-game stretch beginning with a home game against Florida followed by road trips to Georgia and Texas A&M before finally hosting Alabama. Still, they could be favored in as many as 11 games this year, so I like the over.
National title: Last season, Tennessee was basically four plays away from being 13-0, as all four losses were a touchdown or less. If they get through the aforementioned four-game stretch with one loss or less, they are legitimate national title contenders. They're worth a small look at 12-1.
"Stanford Steve" Coughlin
This is the year! We've heard about it since Butch Jones took over in Knoxville before the start of the 2013 season. I've always believed that year four is when you can start judging head coaches, and the problem is some coaches don't see a fourth year at their respective schools.
There's so much to like about the Vols this year. They have the schedule, including Alabama and Florida at home. But most importantly, they have the talent, starting with QB Joshua Dobbs. Much has been made about Dobbs' ability behind center, and questions about his deep passing remain the issue. I see nothing but improvement for him, and with RB Jalen Hurd (who rushed for over 1,300 yards last year) and the additional core of returning starters, the Vols look to me like one of the most balanced teams in the country. Still, that 9.5 total is too high for me in a league as stacked as the SEC, and I'll take the under.
CFB Playoff odds: You have to like the fact the Vols get the Gators and Crimson Tide in Knoxville, which gives them the inside track to Atlanta for the SEC title game, and a potential opportunity to play their way in to the playoff.
Tennessee Betting Trends
Statistical data courtesy of college football data analyst Josh Doust, TeamRankings.com, BetLabsSports on SportsInsights and ESPN's Phil Steele.
TOTAL HOME AWAY FAVE UNDERDOG O/U
2015 ATS 8-5 4-5 4-0 4-4 4-1 7-6
5-year ATS 28-32-2 15-20-1 9-12-1 17-16-1 11-15-1 33-26-1
Coach Butch Jones' career ATS 54-42 29-19 22-22 35-23 19-18 56-53
Chris Fallica
O/U: Vols come into the season as a prohibitive favorite in the East, but I think there is too much hype. The Vols should beat Virginia Tech in a non-conference game at Bristol Motor Speedway, meaning their season comes down to how they do in the four-game stretch of Florida, at Georgia, at Texas A&M and Alabama. A split of those four games would be considered a success by most. And I wouldn't rule out losses in both road games and a split of the two home games. Given recent history vs. Florida, Alabama and Georgia, I would play the under, knowing you will know your fate by mid-October.
CFB playoff odds: Too short for my liking. The Vols would likely have to either beat Alabama twice or beat Alabama and LSU in the same season, then win two more CFP games. For a team that hasn't won 10 games in a season since 2004, hasn't been to an upper-tier bowl since 1999 (yes I know there were Cotton Bowl appearances when the game wasn't part of the BCS)nor won the SEC since 1998, that's an awfully short number. Pass.
Tennessee Volunteers
National title odds: 12-1
Season win total: 9.5
FPI win total projection: 10.4
Phil Steele
Strengths: The Vols are the most experienced Power 5 team in the country and third overall. They have quarterback Joshua Dobbs, two superb running backs in Jalen Hurd and Alvin Kamara and four returning starters on the offensive line. Every level of the defense has a potential first-round draft pick in defensive end Derek Barnett, linebacker Jalen Reeves-Maybin and cornerback Cameron Sutton. They also have my No. 3-rated special teams.
Weaknesses: I have all eight units ranked in my top 26, but the lowest is receivers. The Tennessee corps has been banged up and needs to stay healthy and improve its productivity. The Vols also need to learn how to finish games after blowing a pair of double-digit fourth-quarter leads vs. Oklahoma and Florida in 2015, and allowing Alabama a game-winning touchdown with 2:24 left.
Over/under: The total of 9.5 appears cheap. Tennessee figures to be a double-digit favorite in eight games, though the Vols have a killer four-game stretch beginning with a home game against Florida followed by road trips to Georgia and Texas A&M before finally hosting Alabama. Still, they could be favored in as many as 11 games this year, so I like the over.
National title: Last season, Tennessee was basically four plays away from being 13-0, as all four losses were a touchdown or less. If they get through the aforementioned four-game stretch with one loss or less, they are legitimate national title contenders. They're worth a small look at 12-1.
"Stanford Steve" Coughlin
This is the year! We've heard about it since Butch Jones took over in Knoxville before the start of the 2013 season. I've always believed that year four is when you can start judging head coaches, and the problem is some coaches don't see a fourth year at their respective schools.
There's so much to like about the Vols this year. They have the schedule, including Alabama and Florida at home. But most importantly, they have the talent, starting with QB Joshua Dobbs. Much has been made about Dobbs' ability behind center, and questions about his deep passing remain the issue. I see nothing but improvement for him, and with RB Jalen Hurd (who rushed for over 1,300 yards last year) and the additional core of returning starters, the Vols look to me like one of the most balanced teams in the country. Still, that 9.5 total is too high for me in a league as stacked as the SEC, and I'll take the under.
CFB Playoff odds: You have to like the fact the Vols get the Gators and Crimson Tide in Knoxville, which gives them the inside track to Atlanta for the SEC title game, and a potential opportunity to play their way in to the playoff.
Tennessee Betting Trends
Statistical data courtesy of college football data analyst Josh Doust, TeamRankings.com, BetLabsSports on SportsInsights and ESPN's Phil Steele.
TOTAL HOME AWAY FAVE UNDERDOG O/U
2015 ATS 8-5 4-5 4-0 4-4 4-1 7-6
5-year ATS 28-32-2 15-20-1 9-12-1 17-16-1 11-15-1 33-26-1
Coach Butch Jones' career ATS 54-42 29-19 22-22 35-23 19-18 56-53
Chris Fallica
O/U: Vols come into the season as a prohibitive favorite in the East, but I think there is too much hype. The Vols should beat Virginia Tech in a non-conference game at Bristol Motor Speedway, meaning their season comes down to how they do in the four-game stretch of Florida, at Georgia, at Texas A&M and Alabama. A split of those four games would be considered a success by most. And I wouldn't rule out losses in both road games and a split of the two home games. Given recent history vs. Florida, Alabama and Georgia, I would play the under, knowing you will know your fate by mid-October.
CFB playoff odds: Too short for my liking. The Vols would likely have to either beat Alabama twice or beat Alabama and LSU in the same season, then win two more CFP games. For a team that hasn't won 10 games in a season since 2004, hasn't been to an upper-tier bowl since 1999 (yes I know there were Cotton Bowl appearances when the game wasn't part of the BCS)nor won the SEC since 1998, that's an awfully short number. Pass.
