https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-d...-growth-in-western-countries-april-13-update/
Toward the end:
OK then. Let’s change the subject slightly. Earlier today I mentioned a few anomalies about the COVID-19 death tolls. I could have added some others too. This plus a few other things has put a thought in my head that’s been rolling around for several days—a thought that I’m afraid to state publicly even though my opinion obviously has no effect on anything.
But here it is: I’ve started to wonder if you can account for the anomalies with two assumptions: (1) the initial models were just plain too high, for reasons we don’t yet understand, and (2) the value of social distancing has been overestimated. A strong social distancing regimen reduces death rates by around a third or a half, not 5x or 10x.
This is why the United States is doing fairly well even though our response was lousy and late. It’s why South Korea did well with no countermeasures at all except for testing and tracing. It’s why Sweden is doing only a bit worse than other Nordic countries and about the same as the rest of Europe even with very light countermeasures. It’s why nearly every Western country is on a surprisingly similar trendline. It’s why grocery workers are dying at only a moderately higher rate than the general population. It’s why red states that have resisted lockdowns haven’t suffered much for it. It’s why New York is doing so much worse than the Pacific coast states even though it lagged by only a few days in ordering lockdowns. A few days simply can’t account for a 20x difference. It has to be something else. Maybe just bad luck.
Now, this is just a dilettante guess. There are obviously plenty of other possibilities. And it’s worth acknowledging that it’s hard to compare different countries because they all have different age distributions; different health profiles; different weather; different health systems; etc. etc. I also realize that no one wants to say anything that downplays the effect of countermeasures because it might provide people with a reason to demand an end to social distancing before we’ve truly stamped out the virus. There are some who might even consider it irresponsible to so much as broach the subject. Still, I wonder.
Toward the end:
OK then. Let’s change the subject slightly. Earlier today I mentioned a few anomalies about the COVID-19 death tolls. I could have added some others too. This plus a few other things has put a thought in my head that’s been rolling around for several days—a thought that I’m afraid to state publicly even though my opinion obviously has no effect on anything.
But here it is: I’ve started to wonder if you can account for the anomalies with two assumptions: (1) the initial models were just plain too high, for reasons we don’t yet understand, and (2) the value of social distancing has been overestimated. A strong social distancing regimen reduces death rates by around a third or a half, not 5x or 10x.
This is why the United States is doing fairly well even though our response was lousy and late. It’s why South Korea did well with no countermeasures at all except for testing and tracing. It’s why Sweden is doing only a bit worse than other Nordic countries and about the same as the rest of Europe even with very light countermeasures. It’s why nearly every Western country is on a surprisingly similar trendline. It’s why grocery workers are dying at only a moderately higher rate than the general population. It’s why red states that have resisted lockdowns haven’t suffered much for it. It’s why New York is doing so much worse than the Pacific coast states even though it lagged by only a few days in ordering lockdowns. A few days simply can’t account for a 20x difference. It has to be something else. Maybe just bad luck.
Now, this is just a dilettante guess. There are obviously plenty of other possibilities. And it’s worth acknowledging that it’s hard to compare different countries because they all have different age distributions; different health profiles; different weather; different health systems; etc. etc. I also realize that no one wants to say anything that downplays the effect of countermeasures because it might provide people with a reason to demand an end to social distancing before we’ve truly stamped out the virus. There are some who might even consider it irresponsible to so much as broach the subject. Still, I wonder.
