Required reading before you give up everything based on a model.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...e-a-good-covid-19-model/?ex_cid=story-twitter
https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...e-a-good-covid-19-model/?ex_cid=story-twitter
From 538: Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model
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