If this were any other team, we would not be anywhere near this afraid of the game on Saturday. That’s a fact. In reality, I think this has been the biggest stumbling block in the Vols/Gators series. It isn’t that they are so much better than us, they aren’t, its that our team enters the game hoping to win while they expect to win. There is a lack of confidence that has to change if we are ever going to reverse the fortunes in this series.
But the fact is, this Florida team, no matter what the rankings say, is not a top 10 team. They are very fortunate to be 3-0 and not 1-3 just like us. They have done what they seem to always do, which is find a way to win even when they aren’t very good. They may do that again on Saturday as they have done in 2014, 2015, and 2017. This is a close game on paper, just as it was in those 3 years, years which the Vols should have won, but the Gators found a way to win in the end, mostly because of mistakes by Tennessee.
The Matchups:
When Florida Runs:
Florida is not good at running the football. In fact, they’re terrible at running the football. And if they hadn’t ran the ball in garbage time and racked up stats against UT Martin, they would look even worse in the stat department in running the football. Against Miami, FL ran for 50 yards. Against UK, the Gators ran for 138 yards. That sounds really good, until you actually investigate that stat. The last FL play of the game was a run, where KY blew it defensively, and FL picked up 76 yards on that one play. Without that run, the Gators ran for a measly 62 yards against Kentucky.
Now, nobody is arguing that the Vols are the 85 bears. The weakest part of the Volunteer defense has been defending the run. Yet, there are questions there. First, how much of that is fool’s gold? Yes, GSU ran for a lot of yards. But go back to that game and ask, how much of that was due to all of the ridiculous lineup issues that we had on defense in that game? In fact, that was story, defensively, from that game, how much we struggled to line up and GSU took advantage of it. BYU only ran for 107 yards against us, and that with a much better offensive line than Florida in this writer’s opinion. Further, the Vols get much needed help defensively with Daniel Bituli back on defense. This should take care of the lineup issues as well as add a playmaker in the middle of the defense. I don’t expect the Vols to be completely different against the run, but they will stop this FL team from running the ball. I’d be shocked if FL achieved 100 yards on the ground on Saturday. Won’t happen, in my opinion. And I would argue, that if we were playing Florida Tech with the same players, most would agree with this assessment.
Edge: Tennessee
When Florida Passes:
This is the most difficult matchup to project in my opinion. The reason is, we just do not know what we are getting out of Florida’s Quarterback Kyle Trask. This is a kid who hasn’t started a football game since he was a freshman in high school. That is unbelievable to me. Further, does Emory Jones play some? Only Dan Mullen knows the answer to that. What are we going to get out of their passing attack? Kyle Trask looked really good against UK when he came in. There is a caveat to that however, in that UK had stopped bringing pressure and were playing soft coverage as they entered a “play not to lose” mode against Florida because they had the lead. Therefore, we haven’t seen Kyle Trask with pressure in his face and thus we do not know how he will react to said pressure. He did see the field well and he delivered accurate balls to his receivers. In fact, he’s probably a better passer than Felipe Franks.
To add to that, the best part of Florida’s offense are their wide receivers. They have ballers at that position who have good speed and playmaking ability. The Volunteer secondary will be tested.
The Vols meanwhile, rank 23rd in passing defense, but I don’t think there is much to take from that. We’ve played GSU, who ran successfully for most of game, and Chattanooga who, well, is Chattanooga. BYU passed for 232 yards against us, albeit 64 yards of that was due to Alontae Taylor’s defensive bust in the 4th quarter. So Tennessee has looked pretty good against the pass thus far, but we haven’t played a team with the skill players of Florida. Their receivers are far better and much faster than those of BYU. Further, the Vols are shuffling their corners around as it seems that Alontae Taylor is in the doghouse after having a sophomore slump. Warren Burrell has also made a number of mistakes in coverage as well which has led to some receivers being left very open. Further, does Bryce Thompson play? If so, how does he perform in his first game of the season? These are questions which make this difficult to project.
The positive aspect of Tennessee’s pass defense is their ability to rush the passer. While the Vol’s defensive line has been disappointing to say the least, Tennessee has been able to rush the passer successfully in their blitz packages. Tennessee sacked BYU’s QB 4 times and hurried him another 7. Again, I believe that the BYU offensive line is much better than Florida’s so I believe that TN will have success rushing the passer on Saturday. How will Trask react to pressure? That is anyone’s guess.
Edge: Slightly Florida
When Tennessee Runs:
This is yet another matchup that is difficult to project. Tennessee has been very good at running the football so far this year. But is that fool’s gold? It doesn’t matter what we did against GSU and Chattanooga, even though it is true that in years past we haven’t even been able to run the ball against teams like this. The Vols also ran for 242 yards against BYU which has a decent defensive front, but they also play in a 3-3-5 defense which is not what Tennessee will see on Saturday. Further, they do not have the athletes at linebacker that Florida has which made it easier for Tennessee to get the edge against them.
But, the Vols do have the best offensive line they have had in years. On that line is a lot of size and a lot of guys who are capable of running over defenses. In fact, its what they do best. Tennessee will try hard to establish the run behind this new look offensive line on Saturday. Running the ball are two very good running backs as well in Chandler and Gray.
Florida, on the other hand, ranks 35th in the country in rushing defense, by far the toughest test we have faced up until this point from an offensive perspective. They are very stout at the line of scrimmage against the run. Tennessee will have to have success in the passing game in order to open up the run.
Edge: Florida
When Tennessee Passes:
It is no secret that Jarrett Guarantano has been playing the worst football of his career this season. This is a shocking development being that he is a redshirt junior and is arguably receiving the best coaching of his career from Jim Chaney. He has been off this season in ways that he has been strong in the past. Coming in, everyone knew that getting the ball out quickly and reading the defense were his biggest weaknesses. But, he also had strengths. Last year Guarantano was very accurate with the football and he also took care of the ball only having 3 interceptions on the year. This season it appears that he is trying to do too much and is forcing the ball into double and triple coverage. He has already had multiple interceptions and should have had several more. There is no question that if JG plays like he did last year, the Vols would have beaten a pretty good BYU team by multiple touchdowns. Alas, he had one of the worst performances of his entire career and the Vols ended up losing. However, it does appear that JG gained some confidence against Chattanooga. How much can we take from that performance is yet to be seen.
But, the strength of the Volunteer offense are the wide receivers. The Vols have dudes at the receiver position and they can and will make plays against this banged up Florida secondary if their quarterback can give them the opportunity.
As to Florida, their pass defense ranks 70th in the country. That is very surprising considering they have faced two very inexperienced QB’s in Miami’s Williams and Kentucky’s Smith. Their secondary has greatly struggled this year, partly because their best corner, Henderson, has been injured. There is a chance that he doesn’t play Saturday either and Florida will be missing their starting safety for the first half as well. Further, their best edge rusher, Zuniga is also banged up and will not practice this week. It is yet to be stated whether or not he will play.
It’s no secret that JG has to play better in order to have success passing the football on Saturday. We all know he is better than he showed in the BYU game. For this reason, and Florida’s injuries, I believe that Tennessee’s receivers will make plays against this Gator secondary.
Edge: Slightly Tennessee
Special Teams:
This one isn’t even up for debate.
Edge: Tennessee
Who’s going to win? On paper, it is anyone’s game in my opinion. If this were Florida Tech, with the same Florida players, I think we’d be a lot more confident in a win. But, it is Florida, and there is history. Tennessee has to play this game believing and expecting the win and not hoping to win. If they do that, they can win. Barring turnovers like last year, this game should be a game that comes down to the wire in the 4th quarter just as 4 of the last 5 games have been.
It’s a noon kick, the Vols are improving and, I believe, they’re mad. Vols change the narrative of the season on Saturday and win 24-20.
Bring on the debate. Tell me where you think I’m wrong and where you agree. Try to do better than "they're Florida!" or "we lost to GSU".
I did your job for you @Rob Lewis
But the fact is, this Florida team, no matter what the rankings say, is not a top 10 team. They are very fortunate to be 3-0 and not 1-3 just like us. They have done what they seem to always do, which is find a way to win even when they aren’t very good. They may do that again on Saturday as they have done in 2014, 2015, and 2017. This is a close game on paper, just as it was in those 3 years, years which the Vols should have won, but the Gators found a way to win in the end, mostly because of mistakes by Tennessee.
The Matchups:
When Florida Runs:
Florida is not good at running the football. In fact, they’re terrible at running the football. And if they hadn’t ran the ball in garbage time and racked up stats against UT Martin, they would look even worse in the stat department in running the football. Against Miami, FL ran for 50 yards. Against UK, the Gators ran for 138 yards. That sounds really good, until you actually investigate that stat. The last FL play of the game was a run, where KY blew it defensively, and FL picked up 76 yards on that one play. Without that run, the Gators ran for a measly 62 yards against Kentucky.
Now, nobody is arguing that the Vols are the 85 bears. The weakest part of the Volunteer defense has been defending the run. Yet, there are questions there. First, how much of that is fool’s gold? Yes, GSU ran for a lot of yards. But go back to that game and ask, how much of that was due to all of the ridiculous lineup issues that we had on defense in that game? In fact, that was story, defensively, from that game, how much we struggled to line up and GSU took advantage of it. BYU only ran for 107 yards against us, and that with a much better offensive line than Florida in this writer’s opinion. Further, the Vols get much needed help defensively with Daniel Bituli back on defense. This should take care of the lineup issues as well as add a playmaker in the middle of the defense. I don’t expect the Vols to be completely different against the run, but they will stop this FL team from running the ball. I’d be shocked if FL achieved 100 yards on the ground on Saturday. Won’t happen, in my opinion. And I would argue, that if we were playing Florida Tech with the same players, most would agree with this assessment.
Edge: Tennessee
When Florida Passes:
This is the most difficult matchup to project in my opinion. The reason is, we just do not know what we are getting out of Florida’s Quarterback Kyle Trask. This is a kid who hasn’t started a football game since he was a freshman in high school. That is unbelievable to me. Further, does Emory Jones play some? Only Dan Mullen knows the answer to that. What are we going to get out of their passing attack? Kyle Trask looked really good against UK when he came in. There is a caveat to that however, in that UK had stopped bringing pressure and were playing soft coverage as they entered a “play not to lose” mode against Florida because they had the lead. Therefore, we haven’t seen Kyle Trask with pressure in his face and thus we do not know how he will react to said pressure. He did see the field well and he delivered accurate balls to his receivers. In fact, he’s probably a better passer than Felipe Franks.
To add to that, the best part of Florida’s offense are their wide receivers. They have ballers at that position who have good speed and playmaking ability. The Volunteer secondary will be tested.
The Vols meanwhile, rank 23rd in passing defense, but I don’t think there is much to take from that. We’ve played GSU, who ran successfully for most of game, and Chattanooga who, well, is Chattanooga. BYU passed for 232 yards against us, albeit 64 yards of that was due to Alontae Taylor’s defensive bust in the 4th quarter. So Tennessee has looked pretty good against the pass thus far, but we haven’t played a team with the skill players of Florida. Their receivers are far better and much faster than those of BYU. Further, the Vols are shuffling their corners around as it seems that Alontae Taylor is in the doghouse after having a sophomore slump. Warren Burrell has also made a number of mistakes in coverage as well which has led to some receivers being left very open. Further, does Bryce Thompson play? If so, how does he perform in his first game of the season? These are questions which make this difficult to project.
The positive aspect of Tennessee’s pass defense is their ability to rush the passer. While the Vol’s defensive line has been disappointing to say the least, Tennessee has been able to rush the passer successfully in their blitz packages. Tennessee sacked BYU’s QB 4 times and hurried him another 7. Again, I believe that the BYU offensive line is much better than Florida’s so I believe that TN will have success rushing the passer on Saturday. How will Trask react to pressure? That is anyone’s guess.
Edge: Slightly Florida
When Tennessee Runs:
This is yet another matchup that is difficult to project. Tennessee has been very good at running the football so far this year. But is that fool’s gold? It doesn’t matter what we did against GSU and Chattanooga, even though it is true that in years past we haven’t even been able to run the ball against teams like this. The Vols also ran for 242 yards against BYU which has a decent defensive front, but they also play in a 3-3-5 defense which is not what Tennessee will see on Saturday. Further, they do not have the athletes at linebacker that Florida has which made it easier for Tennessee to get the edge against them.
But, the Vols do have the best offensive line they have had in years. On that line is a lot of size and a lot of guys who are capable of running over defenses. In fact, its what they do best. Tennessee will try hard to establish the run behind this new look offensive line on Saturday. Running the ball are two very good running backs as well in Chandler and Gray.
Florida, on the other hand, ranks 35th in the country in rushing defense, by far the toughest test we have faced up until this point from an offensive perspective. They are very stout at the line of scrimmage against the run. Tennessee will have to have success in the passing game in order to open up the run.
Edge: Florida
When Tennessee Passes:
It is no secret that Jarrett Guarantano has been playing the worst football of his career this season. This is a shocking development being that he is a redshirt junior and is arguably receiving the best coaching of his career from Jim Chaney. He has been off this season in ways that he has been strong in the past. Coming in, everyone knew that getting the ball out quickly and reading the defense were his biggest weaknesses. But, he also had strengths. Last year Guarantano was very accurate with the football and he also took care of the ball only having 3 interceptions on the year. This season it appears that he is trying to do too much and is forcing the ball into double and triple coverage. He has already had multiple interceptions and should have had several more. There is no question that if JG plays like he did last year, the Vols would have beaten a pretty good BYU team by multiple touchdowns. Alas, he had one of the worst performances of his entire career and the Vols ended up losing. However, it does appear that JG gained some confidence against Chattanooga. How much can we take from that performance is yet to be seen.
But, the strength of the Volunteer offense are the wide receivers. The Vols have dudes at the receiver position and they can and will make plays against this banged up Florida secondary if their quarterback can give them the opportunity.
As to Florida, their pass defense ranks 70th in the country. That is very surprising considering they have faced two very inexperienced QB’s in Miami’s Williams and Kentucky’s Smith. Their secondary has greatly struggled this year, partly because their best corner, Henderson, has been injured. There is a chance that he doesn’t play Saturday either and Florida will be missing their starting safety for the first half as well. Further, their best edge rusher, Zuniga is also banged up and will not practice this week. It is yet to be stated whether or not he will play.
It’s no secret that JG has to play better in order to have success passing the football on Saturday. We all know he is better than he showed in the BYU game. For this reason, and Florida’s injuries, I believe that Tennessee’s receivers will make plays against this Gator secondary.
Edge: Slightly Tennessee
Special Teams:
This one isn’t even up for debate.
Edge: Tennessee
Who’s going to win? On paper, it is anyone’s game in my opinion. If this were Florida Tech, with the same Florida players, I think we’d be a lot more confident in a win. But, it is Florida, and there is history. Tennessee has to play this game believing and expecting the win and not hoping to win. If they do that, they can win. Barring turnovers like last year, this game should be a game that comes down to the wire in the 4th quarter just as 4 of the last 5 games have been.
It’s a noon kick, the Vols are improving and, I believe, they’re mad. Vols change the narrative of the season on Saturday and win 24-20.
Bring on the debate. Tell me where you think I’m wrong and where you agree. Try to do better than "they're Florida!" or "we lost to GSU".
I did your job for you @Rob Lewis
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