Let me preface by saying sorry this got long and that this is my opinion and only that. But many of you know that in my work, I deal with managing liability and helping companies with crisis management. This is right up that alley, and here's what I'd advise currently on how to play college football with COVID, balancing safety and revenue needs:
First, there's too much money in football to not try and have the season. Since the bulk of that money is in TV revenue, and since people are starved for live sports, schools with positive earnings on their football program will play. Period. Companies will fall over themselves to get ads during SEC football games with the number of people likely to tune in. The TV money can soften the blow of COVID to university balance sheets while having the events safely. Since the virus is passed predominantly through aerosols and players wear equipment, there's also some technical/equipment ways to limit the spread as well while having the events.
How the game is played is the question IMO. It has to be at the conference level IMO. So the way we have football is by having just an SEC league.
The central focus of every school should be player, personnel and staff safety. It's gonna be a given that no positive-testing player can play until a negative test. This is gonna be difficult for roster management purposes, and it will require a higher degree of regulation than what the current system will allow, but the conference level will likely permit. You'd have to develop interim rules for testing and for what happens after a positive test. What if someone has COVID and plays but shouldn't have. Is the game forfeit? What happens? That would have to be ironed out.
Regarding safety, the current data suggests that reopening schools smartly is a pretty safe option. This is mainly because, as we know, the virus is less deadly and its symptoms less severe in younger people. This is relevant because if students are not on campus, except for athletes and other categories of students, that further reduces transmission possibilities and helps the school manage quarantine for athletes. This is workable. You'd basically create a college bubble that only a select class of student would be allowed to be in. It should operate similar to the initial quarantine in depressing numbers, as well as allow for herd immunity to quickly take root in those campuses that are exposed.
To that end, I would advise, like many have suggested, to eliminate out of conference games. [Note: The OU-UT game may be the exception depending on the structure of the deal, but it could be amended to better allocate the loss OU is likely to suffer from no Tennessee fans in the stands in Norman or at best, a reduced amount. It is a home and home so that factors.]
The SEC teams are geographically close, which is good for managing the virus. There's also a central commissioner that can make rules for the teams and the league. It is not beyond reason to just have a conference league this year, spread out the games to help manage the virus and then crown the conference champion using the same rules.
You can worry about the playoff once other conferences determine their strategy, but the SEC's unique geographic concentration should be of great benefit to it in coordinating a response here and limiting exposure.
Finally, regarding liability, every player must be given the option to maintain their scholarship for the next year but not play. I would also imagine it would be workable to give students a COVID-19 stipend to help offset some of the costs of protecting themselves and their peers.
Just some musings about how to play this Fall.
First, there's too much money in football to not try and have the season. Since the bulk of that money is in TV revenue, and since people are starved for live sports, schools with positive earnings on their football program will play. Period. Companies will fall over themselves to get ads during SEC football games with the number of people likely to tune in. The TV money can soften the blow of COVID to university balance sheets while having the events safely. Since the virus is passed predominantly through aerosols and players wear equipment, there's also some technical/equipment ways to limit the spread as well while having the events.
How the game is played is the question IMO. It has to be at the conference level IMO. So the way we have football is by having just an SEC league.
The central focus of every school should be player, personnel and staff safety. It's gonna be a given that no positive-testing player can play until a negative test. This is gonna be difficult for roster management purposes, and it will require a higher degree of regulation than what the current system will allow, but the conference level will likely permit. You'd have to develop interim rules for testing and for what happens after a positive test. What if someone has COVID and plays but shouldn't have. Is the game forfeit? What happens? That would have to be ironed out.
Regarding safety, the current data suggests that reopening schools smartly is a pretty safe option. This is mainly because, as we know, the virus is less deadly and its symptoms less severe in younger people. This is relevant because if students are not on campus, except for athletes and other categories of students, that further reduces transmission possibilities and helps the school manage quarantine for athletes. This is workable. You'd basically create a college bubble that only a select class of student would be allowed to be in. It should operate similar to the initial quarantine in depressing numbers, as well as allow for herd immunity to quickly take root in those campuses that are exposed.
To that end, I would advise, like many have suggested, to eliminate out of conference games. [Note: The OU-UT game may be the exception depending on the structure of the deal, but it could be amended to better allocate the loss OU is likely to suffer from no Tennessee fans in the stands in Norman or at best, a reduced amount. It is a home and home so that factors.]
The SEC teams are geographically close, which is good for managing the virus. There's also a central commissioner that can make rules for the teams and the league. It is not beyond reason to just have a conference league this year, spread out the games to help manage the virus and then crown the conference champion using the same rules.
You can worry about the playoff once other conferences determine their strategy, but the SEC's unique geographic concentration should be of great benefit to it in coordinating a response here and limiting exposure.
Finally, regarding liability, every player must be given the option to maintain their scholarship for the next year but not play. I would also imagine it would be workable to give students a COVID-19 stipend to help offset some of the costs of protecting themselves and their peers.
Just some musings about how to play this Fall.
