Back after a rough night. It happens. Gus sticks to the run, where Louisville had a hard time stopping them, and I still think it covers.
But that's the beauty of football, and was at least a fun game to watch, albeit with an upsetting outcome for me. See below for today's picks and reasoning.
On the Season: 0-1 (Winning Percentage: 0.00%)
Today's Picks:
Michigan State @ Miami (-6.5)
As mentioned yesterday, I love value. Miami is coming off a blowout loss to Alabama as an almost-20 point dog, and then narrowly escaped an App. St. team (2 point win) as a 7-point favorite. No one here needs to be told to ignore the Bama loss -- they can do what they did to Miami to almost anyone. They looked flat against App. St., but still squeaked out a win and come into this one 1-1.
Michigan St. is hot: They were a 3-point dog against Northwestern and won by 28, and also covered their 27-point line against Youngstown St. last week. But they're coming off a 2-5 season in which they averaged 18 ppg and gave up 35 ppg; to think that they're going to average what they have so far, which is 40 ppg while only giving up 17 ppg, feels like an overreaction. If you go back to their impressive win against Northwestern, you'll see that Northwestern was able to get 400 yards of total offense against them... the same Northwestern team that only managed 275 against Indiana St.
MSU is a run-first team, going up against a strong Miami front seven (even if down a couple of members right now). Miami is only giving up 3.6 ypc, and only gave up 3.9 ypc against the best team in the country. If they can stop MSU's run, forcing the Spartans to pass, it could get ugly quick.
The pick: Miami -6.5
Boston College (-14.5) @ Temple
Going to play the total line here. I believe it's lower than it should be since starting QB Phil Jurkovec is out, with Dennis Grosel starting in his place. He came in relief for Jukovec last week, and went 11-14 for 199 yards in the win over UMass. He also started in last year's finale against UVA, where he went 32 of 46 for 520 yards and 4 TDs.
Temple's defense is bad. While only giving up 365 total yards to Rutgers, they still managed to give up 61 total points. As bad as Akron is -- who couldn't score a single point against Auburn until the final moments of the game -- they managed 24 points against Temple when the two met. And the Rutgers offense that put up 61 against Temple... they managed just 17 points and 195 total yards against Syracuse last week.
I believe BC can score at least 40 points in this game, which means I need Temple to just do a bit more. I personally see this game in the 60s, so will ride the 55.5 over here.
The pick: Over 55.5
USC (-8) @ Washington State
Another buy low opportunity. USC just fired its coach after losing a game where they were a 17 point favorite. Almost no one will be backing USC in this spot. Insert Donte Williams, who will be the first black coach in USC history.... don't think that won't mean something to many of these kids. He's also not Clay Helton, so LA fans will get behind him for the time being. As for Washington State, it's unfortunate that we won't see JG (would feel even better about the pick), but still don't see them keeping this game close. Worst than USC's bad loss to Stanford, Washington State lost to a Utah STate team they were an 18-point favorite against.
Last year, USC beat Washington State by 25, and it really wasn't that close (a touchdown by WSU in the closing minutes got the game under 30).
The Pick: USC -8
Auburn @ Penn St.
Penn State, to me, came into the season underrated, and proved as much with a big road win against Wisconsin. They covered against Ball State last week, in what could be seen as a possible let-down spot (sandwiched between Wisconsin and Auburn), and now they have a white-out game tonight as Auburn rolls into town.
Auburn is 2-0, and if looking at box scores alone, is maybe the best team in the country. Then you realize their 122-10 outscoring of opponents has come against a terrible Akron and Alabama St. team. This will be a *huge* step up in competition. Bo Nix looks great, but he's only 1-6 on the road against ranked opponents, and that's what he faces tonight.
The Pick: Penn State -5
Arizona State (-3.5) @ BYU
Don't have time to give the details here, but like ASU.
The pick: Arizona State -3.5
But that's the beauty of football, and was at least a fun game to watch, albeit with an upsetting outcome for me. See below for today's picks and reasoning.
On the Season: 0-1 (Winning Percentage: 0.00%)
Today's Picks:
Michigan State @ Miami (-6.5)
As mentioned yesterday, I love value. Miami is coming off a blowout loss to Alabama as an almost-20 point dog, and then narrowly escaped an App. St. team (2 point win) as a 7-point favorite. No one here needs to be told to ignore the Bama loss -- they can do what they did to Miami to almost anyone. They looked flat against App. St., but still squeaked out a win and come into this one 1-1.
Michigan St. is hot: They were a 3-point dog against Northwestern and won by 28, and also covered their 27-point line against Youngstown St. last week. But they're coming off a 2-5 season in which they averaged 18 ppg and gave up 35 ppg; to think that they're going to average what they have so far, which is 40 ppg while only giving up 17 ppg, feels like an overreaction. If you go back to their impressive win against Northwestern, you'll see that Northwestern was able to get 400 yards of total offense against them... the same Northwestern team that only managed 275 against Indiana St.
MSU is a run-first team, going up against a strong Miami front seven (even if down a couple of members right now). Miami is only giving up 3.6 ypc, and only gave up 3.9 ypc against the best team in the country. If they can stop MSU's run, forcing the Spartans to pass, it could get ugly quick.
The pick: Miami -6.5
Boston College (-14.5) @ Temple
Going to play the total line here. I believe it's lower than it should be since starting QB Phil Jurkovec is out, with Dennis Grosel starting in his place. He came in relief for Jukovec last week, and went 11-14 for 199 yards in the win over UMass. He also started in last year's finale against UVA, where he went 32 of 46 for 520 yards and 4 TDs.
Temple's defense is bad. While only giving up 365 total yards to Rutgers, they still managed to give up 61 total points. As bad as Akron is -- who couldn't score a single point against Auburn until the final moments of the game -- they managed 24 points against Temple when the two met. And the Rutgers offense that put up 61 against Temple... they managed just 17 points and 195 total yards against Syracuse last week.
I believe BC can score at least 40 points in this game, which means I need Temple to just do a bit more. I personally see this game in the 60s, so will ride the 55.5 over here.
The pick: Over 55.5
USC (-8) @ Washington State
Another buy low opportunity. USC just fired its coach after losing a game where they were a 17 point favorite. Almost no one will be backing USC in this spot. Insert Donte Williams, who will be the first black coach in USC history.... don't think that won't mean something to many of these kids. He's also not Clay Helton, so LA fans will get behind him for the time being. As for Washington State, it's unfortunate that we won't see JG (would feel even better about the pick), but still don't see them keeping this game close. Worst than USC's bad loss to Stanford, Washington State lost to a Utah STate team they were an 18-point favorite against.
Last year, USC beat Washington State by 25, and it really wasn't that close (a touchdown by WSU in the closing minutes got the game under 30).
The Pick: USC -8
Auburn @ Penn St.
Penn State, to me, came into the season underrated, and proved as much with a big road win against Wisconsin. They covered against Ball State last week, in what could be seen as a possible let-down spot (sandwiched between Wisconsin and Auburn), and now they have a white-out game tonight as Auburn rolls into town.
Auburn is 2-0, and if looking at box scores alone, is maybe the best team in the country. Then you realize their 122-10 outscoring of opponents has come against a terrible Akron and Alabama St. team. This will be a *huge* step up in competition. Bo Nix looks great, but he's only 1-6 on the road against ranked opponents, and that's what he faces tonight.
The Pick: Penn State -5
Arizona State (-3.5) @ BYU
Don't have time to give the details here, but like ASU.
The pick: Arizona State -3.5
