Working on a longer post of questions for @P_Fortenberry (get ready brotha) to sort of reset where we are after what IMO was a wildly successful OC Day. In the meantime, in case anyone GAF I thought I'd give my thoughts on the seven 2017 commitments we got yesterday as well as what the others are saying about their experience.
To be clear, I am not a talent scout. To me what matters in judging a prospect is the following, in order:
1) Did we offer him? Self-evident for commitments, but IMO Butch/Welton and co. have earned a ton of leeway fro armchair fans when it comes to talent evaluation. Not only have we had a ton of formely less-heralded prospects shoot up the rankings and then receive other big offers, but there are numerous guys Butch has signed (and developed, another big strength of CBJ's) that came in with less fanfare and have contributed already and are projected to do even more for a championship contender in 2016 and beyond.
2) Who else has offered him? Obviously you want other bigtime programs offering your commitments, as that validates that other coaches who are competing for championships think THIS kid can help them do that.
3) Recruiting industry experts opinions, both rankings and written evals. I think both Rivals and 247 do a great job getting out and seeing a ton of kids. What I find interesting is that while Rivals pretty explicitly uses a kid's current measurables and ranks them accordingly (e.g., E. Moseley), 247 does a lot more projecting in their rankings. I don't think either method is necessarily better than the other, so I find it helpful to sort of put them together, especially when you can read evaluations. I also think Brent and Paul in particular are good talent evaluators even though they don't get to see as many kids as say a Woody or Friedman, and they are also really good at thinking about how a kid might fit into a Debord offense or a Shoop defense.
Ok that was long winded, sorry. Below are my thoughts on our 7 new 2017 commitments:
1) Jackson: Long; looks like he might be able to ply either CB or S; camped more than a few times in front of coaches; comes from program that produced both Justin Martin and Ugo Amadi; has an LSU offer, was going to camp at ND this past weekend and earn an offer but came to OC Day instead to commit; think he would have picked up a ton more offers had he held out and would be surprised if he doesn't get a bump before NSD, if not by a full star then to a higher 3-star.
2) Fant: hasn't been healthy but is very athletic - 6-2, 215 pounds and posted a 37 inch, a 4.2 shuttle and a 4.64 40 vertical at The Opening Columbus. LSU, OM, Miami offers, and again hasn't been healthy so I am going to assume his offer list will explode with those measurables if he does and produces like he should this season. Another Midstate kid as well, which is always a plus. Was a 4-star until recent out of nowhere downgrade - think some people would feel differently but for that, even though he's the same prospect.
3) Bumphus: stud, what else is there to say. Nationwide offer list, tons of room to grow as a prospect at either DE (everyone's preference but maybe his, for now) or TE.
4) Lawson: criminally underrated, IMO, due to his measurables (he's massive and has long-ass arms) and what kind of ceiling he has. This is reflected in offers from FSU, USC, OM, and So Car (think WIll Muschamp, not the crappy program itself). Again, I'm not a film watcher bc I don't know enough, but when I watch him he looks pretty darn active to me. My guess is that when Paul says he has to smooth out some rough edges it's that his technique isn't super refined. That's a problem if you need him to come in and play right away. But we don't, and you take that kind of height/weight/athleticism combo all day, IMO.
5) Coleman: Referencing up top, I'll roll with Brett Bielema's RB evals any day. Don't know that he is going to get an LSU offer unless they miss out on their other top targets (incidentally, IMO it's going to be us and LSU for Akers), but he was definitely on their radar and close to an offer. Also, a TOS writer for LSU said that at his size Coleman could project at several other positions from receiver to safety, and possibly even linebacker. That's not another VQ poster moving a prospect to another position, either. Same dude said that OU was on him pretty good. Obviously the staff likes him enough to take him now not knowing what either Akers or Chandler are going to do. That tells me that, especially with the recent good vibes coming from both of them, they really like Coleman and are willing to take him either as a 3rd RB in the class (which I would rather have than a QB at this point from a needs perspective) or simply as an ATH. For the rankings dudes, wouldn't shock me to see him put up monster numbers this season and get bumped up.
6) Henderson: again, criminally underrated, IMO. LSU/UCLA offers among others. To Paul's point more than once on him, he fits exactly what we're looking for at LB in that he can run, cover, and is physical. Remember, he was a Safety prospect not that long ago, and will fit the LB/S mold Shoop uses so well. The very close connection to Holloman is not to be dismissed either - Holloman to me is 1B behind Higgins.
7) Tucker: this is the only one that made me wonder a bit, especially considering what the OL board looks like. He's obviously massive, and I assume that Mahoney likes how he moves and is projecting that he can mold him, as we have been recruiting him for a while. Offer list isn't great, so this is one where I feel like I just have to trust our coaches and Welton. I'm more than willing to do that. At the same time, if he doesn't progress like the staff wants him to over the next season then we have shown we are willing to part with guys. And as Orlando Brown showed us, dudes that big have no shortage of teams willing to take a chance even if our staff isn't, so I wouldn't feel bad about it either.
Combine getting those seven guys with the insane amount of talent that also was on campus and you have quite possibly the most successful recruiting day in recent UT history. I'll delve deeper into where we stand with the rest of the class in the post for Paul I mentioned above, but suffice it to say that I am pretty pumped about yesterday's results overall and where we are headed with this class (and 2018!!!!) as a whole.
To be clear, I am not a talent scout. To me what matters in judging a prospect is the following, in order:
1) Did we offer him? Self-evident for commitments, but IMO Butch/Welton and co. have earned a ton of leeway fro armchair fans when it comes to talent evaluation. Not only have we had a ton of formely less-heralded prospects shoot up the rankings and then receive other big offers, but there are numerous guys Butch has signed (and developed, another big strength of CBJ's) that came in with less fanfare and have contributed already and are projected to do even more for a championship contender in 2016 and beyond.
2) Who else has offered him? Obviously you want other bigtime programs offering your commitments, as that validates that other coaches who are competing for championships think THIS kid can help them do that.
3) Recruiting industry experts opinions, both rankings and written evals. I think both Rivals and 247 do a great job getting out and seeing a ton of kids. What I find interesting is that while Rivals pretty explicitly uses a kid's current measurables and ranks them accordingly (e.g., E. Moseley), 247 does a lot more projecting in their rankings. I don't think either method is necessarily better than the other, so I find it helpful to sort of put them together, especially when you can read evaluations. I also think Brent and Paul in particular are good talent evaluators even though they don't get to see as many kids as say a Woody or Friedman, and they are also really good at thinking about how a kid might fit into a Debord offense or a Shoop defense.
Ok that was long winded, sorry. Below are my thoughts on our 7 new 2017 commitments:
1) Jackson: Long; looks like he might be able to ply either CB or S; camped more than a few times in front of coaches; comes from program that produced both Justin Martin and Ugo Amadi; has an LSU offer, was going to camp at ND this past weekend and earn an offer but came to OC Day instead to commit; think he would have picked up a ton more offers had he held out and would be surprised if he doesn't get a bump before NSD, if not by a full star then to a higher 3-star.
2) Fant: hasn't been healthy but is very athletic - 6-2, 215 pounds and posted a 37 inch, a 4.2 shuttle and a 4.64 40 vertical at The Opening Columbus. LSU, OM, Miami offers, and again hasn't been healthy so I am going to assume his offer list will explode with those measurables if he does and produces like he should this season. Another Midstate kid as well, which is always a plus. Was a 4-star until recent out of nowhere downgrade - think some people would feel differently but for that, even though he's the same prospect.
3) Bumphus: stud, what else is there to say. Nationwide offer list, tons of room to grow as a prospect at either DE (everyone's preference but maybe his, for now) or TE.
4) Lawson: criminally underrated, IMO, due to his measurables (he's massive and has long-ass arms) and what kind of ceiling he has. This is reflected in offers from FSU, USC, OM, and So Car (think WIll Muschamp, not the crappy program itself). Again, I'm not a film watcher bc I don't know enough, but when I watch him he looks pretty darn active to me. My guess is that when Paul says he has to smooth out some rough edges it's that his technique isn't super refined. That's a problem if you need him to come in and play right away. But we don't, and you take that kind of height/weight/athleticism combo all day, IMO.
5) Coleman: Referencing up top, I'll roll with Brett Bielema's RB evals any day. Don't know that he is going to get an LSU offer unless they miss out on their other top targets (incidentally, IMO it's going to be us and LSU for Akers), but he was definitely on their radar and close to an offer. Also, a TOS writer for LSU said that at his size Coleman could project at several other positions from receiver to safety, and possibly even linebacker. That's not another VQ poster moving a prospect to another position, either. Same dude said that OU was on him pretty good. Obviously the staff likes him enough to take him now not knowing what either Akers or Chandler are going to do. That tells me that, especially with the recent good vibes coming from both of them, they really like Coleman and are willing to take him either as a 3rd RB in the class (which I would rather have than a QB at this point from a needs perspective) or simply as an ATH. For the rankings dudes, wouldn't shock me to see him put up monster numbers this season and get bumped up.
6) Henderson: again, criminally underrated, IMO. LSU/UCLA offers among others. To Paul's point more than once on him, he fits exactly what we're looking for at LB in that he can run, cover, and is physical. Remember, he was a Safety prospect not that long ago, and will fit the LB/S mold Shoop uses so well. The very close connection to Holloman is not to be dismissed either - Holloman to me is 1B behind Higgins.
7) Tucker: this is the only one that made me wonder a bit, especially considering what the OL board looks like. He's obviously massive, and I assume that Mahoney likes how he moves and is projecting that he can mold him, as we have been recruiting him for a while. Offer list isn't great, so this is one where I feel like I just have to trust our coaches and Welton. I'm more than willing to do that. At the same time, if he doesn't progress like the staff wants him to over the next season then we have shown we are willing to part with guys. And as Orlando Brown showed us, dudes that big have no shortage of teams willing to take a chance even if our staff isn't, so I wouldn't feel bad about it either.
Combine getting those seven guys with the insane amount of talent that also was on campus and you have quite possibly the most successful recruiting day in recent UT history. I'll delve deeper into where we stand with the rest of the class in the post for Paul I mentioned above, but suffice it to say that I am pretty pumped about yesterday's results overall and where we are headed with this class (and 2018!!!!) as a whole.
