As a preface, this is all speculation, obviously. He may be all-world; he may be worse than last week; he may be the same. Who knows, and we won't know until the lights come on, so there's that off the top for all the NegaVols.
But here's what gives me optimism based on the actual matchup.
First, Pitt is going to want to play man defense and press our WRs. I think our WRs are better athletes than their DBs; the question is can they get off press coverage. I think we can. IMO, that means that Milton will be typically reading 1 on 1 coverage, where his arm strength can make a huge difference. If you are throwing an out route against man coverage, the timing is generally different (and easier IMO) than finding holes in zones. There's less "reading" of coverages, which will help him if they are having him read one side of the field until he gets more comfortable with the entire playbook. While he is a veteran player, the playbook will still be relatively new. I'm not so down on his ability to read coverages, as much as I am on his decision-making to take the easier play vs. the "wow" play, which I think Joe wanted to do in his first game quite a bit (just count the number of times he flicked the right trigger (that one's for my Madden players) or in other words, pointed to his WR to send them deep for a wow throw.
I think Milton will roast them in man coverage.
Second, I think Milton is pretty good at the deep ball and I think he hits on a couple this weekend. What was seen in camp with deep balls was the truth; the question is can he duplicate it. I think he does because he has. Deep balls weren't his problem at UM, nor was velocity. He's not a serial overthrower so much as a serial "trust my arm strength" and hold onto it too long guy. I think coaching can fix that pretty easily with good prep and good playcalling.
Third, I have a hard time believing the middle of the field won't be wide open. A look at Milton's tape from UM shows he works the middle pretty well. With Velus, Calloway, and Hyatt all speedsters, combined with the increased amount of man coverage, I expect to see many more slants, drags and digs.
Fourth, I think we see more of the playbook Milton has been repping this summer. I think that translates to him knowing where his receivers are going to be and his receivers knowing where they should be.
Fifth, I think we see Milton on the rollout more this week and the RBs featuring in the passing game more. This, to me, means it's more likely that he gets into a rhythm.
Sixth, I think Heupel has a better feel for Milton after Week 1 and how to help him and keep him in a rhythm. I never put a lot of stake on spring games or game 1s because it's just different in live contact against another team. BGSU dropped a ton of people in coverage and dared Milton to find the zone holes. He didn't many times, but that's not necessarily what he's gonna face this weekend or against SEC opponents. My gut tells me the tighter the window, the better he'll actually be, as weird as that sounds and that's based on watching each of his snaps from UM a year ago before his injury.
Seventh, Milton has made big time plays before, just hasn't done it consistently enough. You can go back and watch his game tape from UM and see a ton of good. You can see errors, of course, but most of it is pretty good. I'm willing to bet we get closer to Joe Milton vs. Minnesota this week than we get Joe Milton vs. BGSU. That's just my bet.
Finally, I think Milton is a competitor. I think he's heard the chatter, knows disappointment and realizes this is his shot to make it to the league. Maybe he doesn't turn the corner; maybe Hooker or Bailey are our guy in the long-run, but I'd be shocked if Joe doesn't step up against Pitt. Maybe I'm being overly optimistic, but it felt to me that Milton and the offense didn't take BGSU too seriously and we're playing some sandlot ball last week. What Milton was doing, playing loose and clowning around at times, was not something he ever did at UM. This leads me to think the opponent and lowest of stakes had something to do with a lack of focus. That's not good, in and of itself, but I think it could be a reality.
That's my take. If he doesn't improve or take that next step, you definitely give Hooker and then Bailey a chance. I trust Heupel with QBs, so I'm generally not worried, and I believe in both Hooker and Bailey, so what comes will come.
I think we get a breakout performance from Milton though, and I am changing my prediction to the following: VOLS win 38-20. Milton throws from 250+ and has 2 passing TDs, 1 rushing TD. We'll see!
But here's what gives me optimism based on the actual matchup.
First, Pitt is going to want to play man defense and press our WRs. I think our WRs are better athletes than their DBs; the question is can they get off press coverage. I think we can. IMO, that means that Milton will be typically reading 1 on 1 coverage, where his arm strength can make a huge difference. If you are throwing an out route against man coverage, the timing is generally different (and easier IMO) than finding holes in zones. There's less "reading" of coverages, which will help him if they are having him read one side of the field until he gets more comfortable with the entire playbook. While he is a veteran player, the playbook will still be relatively new. I'm not so down on his ability to read coverages, as much as I am on his decision-making to take the easier play vs. the "wow" play, which I think Joe wanted to do in his first game quite a bit (just count the number of times he flicked the right trigger (that one's for my Madden players) or in other words, pointed to his WR to send them deep for a wow throw.
I think Milton will roast them in man coverage.
Second, I think Milton is pretty good at the deep ball and I think he hits on a couple this weekend. What was seen in camp with deep balls was the truth; the question is can he duplicate it. I think he does because he has. Deep balls weren't his problem at UM, nor was velocity. He's not a serial overthrower so much as a serial "trust my arm strength" and hold onto it too long guy. I think coaching can fix that pretty easily with good prep and good playcalling.
Third, I have a hard time believing the middle of the field won't be wide open. A look at Milton's tape from UM shows he works the middle pretty well. With Velus, Calloway, and Hyatt all speedsters, combined with the increased amount of man coverage, I expect to see many more slants, drags and digs.
Fourth, I think we see more of the playbook Milton has been repping this summer. I think that translates to him knowing where his receivers are going to be and his receivers knowing where they should be.
Fifth, I think we see Milton on the rollout more this week and the RBs featuring in the passing game more. This, to me, means it's more likely that he gets into a rhythm.
Sixth, I think Heupel has a better feel for Milton after Week 1 and how to help him and keep him in a rhythm. I never put a lot of stake on spring games or game 1s because it's just different in live contact against another team. BGSU dropped a ton of people in coverage and dared Milton to find the zone holes. He didn't many times, but that's not necessarily what he's gonna face this weekend or against SEC opponents. My gut tells me the tighter the window, the better he'll actually be, as weird as that sounds and that's based on watching each of his snaps from UM a year ago before his injury.
Seventh, Milton has made big time plays before, just hasn't done it consistently enough. You can go back and watch his game tape from UM and see a ton of good. You can see errors, of course, but most of it is pretty good. I'm willing to bet we get closer to Joe Milton vs. Minnesota this week than we get Joe Milton vs. BGSU. That's just my bet.
Finally, I think Milton is a competitor. I think he's heard the chatter, knows disappointment and realizes this is his shot to make it to the league. Maybe he doesn't turn the corner; maybe Hooker or Bailey are our guy in the long-run, but I'd be shocked if Joe doesn't step up against Pitt. Maybe I'm being overly optimistic, but it felt to me that Milton and the offense didn't take BGSU too seriously and we're playing some sandlot ball last week. What Milton was doing, playing loose and clowning around at times, was not something he ever did at UM. This leads me to think the opponent and lowest of stakes had something to do with a lack of focus. That's not good, in and of itself, but I think it could be a reality.
That's my take. If he doesn't improve or take that next step, you definitely give Hooker and then Bailey a chance. I trust Heupel with QBs, so I'm generally not worried, and I believe in both Hooker and Bailey, so what comes will come.
I think we get a breakout performance from Milton though, and I am changing my prediction to the following: VOLS win 38-20. Milton throws from 250+ and has 2 passing TDs, 1 rushing TD. We'll see!
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