@Matt4RockyTop @Potato_Quest
This is Thursday of next week and needs to be watched closely. It’s very rare for the SPC to go with a 15% area covering that much land this far out. All weather hazards are possible including tornadoes.
also this is just the start of what most experts believe will be a very active severe season in the Mid South
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a strong shortwave trough will drop southward from the Pacific Northwest into southern CA on D4/Monday and D5/Tuesday. This shortwave is then expected to eject eastward across the Southwest/northern Mexico into the southern Plains on D6/Wednesday before continuing northeastward across the Mid MS Valley and Lower/Middle OH Valley on D7/Thursday.
Very strong mid-level flow will accompany the shortwave, with strong low-level flow anticipated throughout the warm sector ahead of the shortwave as well. This strong low-level flow will contribute to robust moisture advection, with upper 50s dewpoints into southern OK and low 60s dewpoints through much of central TX by early D6/Wednesday evening. This moisture advection will continue on D7/Thursday, with upper 50s dewpoints likely reaching into the middle OH Valley by D7/Thursday evening.
The combination of lift, strong vertical shear, low-level moisture, and buoyancy will likely result in severe thunderstorms. Current guidance indicates the most probable location for severe storms on D6/Wednesday is from central TX northeastward across eastern OK, central/western AR, and northwest LA. For D7/Thursday, the severe risk extends from the Lower MS Valley through the Mid-South into the Lower OH Valley
This is Thursday of next week and needs to be watched closely. It’s very rare for the SPC to go with a 15% area covering that much land this far out. All weather hazards are possible including tornadoes.
also this is just the start of what most experts believe will be a very active severe season in the Mid South
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a strong shortwave trough will drop southward from the Pacific Northwest into southern CA on D4/Monday and D5/Tuesday. This shortwave is then expected to eject eastward across the Southwest/northern Mexico into the southern Plains on D6/Wednesday before continuing northeastward across the Mid MS Valley and Lower/Middle OH Valley on D7/Thursday.
Very strong mid-level flow will accompany the shortwave, with strong low-level flow anticipated throughout the warm sector ahead of the shortwave as well. This strong low-level flow will contribute to robust moisture advection, with upper 50s dewpoints into southern OK and low 60s dewpoints through much of central TX by early D6/Wednesday evening. This moisture advection will continue on D7/Thursday, with upper 50s dewpoints likely reaching into the middle OH Valley by D7/Thursday evening.
The combination of lift, strong vertical shear, low-level moisture, and buoyancy will likely result in severe thunderstorms. Current guidance indicates the most probable location for severe storms on D6/Wednesday is from central TX northeastward across eastern OK, central/western AR, and northwest LA. For D7/Thursday, the severe risk extends from the Lower MS Valley through the Mid-South into the Lower OH Valley
