If these wind shear numbers are correct and the sun comes out after the morning storms, this will need to be watched.
NWS for tomorrow….
Later in the morning, a second round of showers and thunderstorms
is expected to develop that could pose a severe threat to the
area. This activity is shown by the hi-res models to initiate
across N AL and the eastern portions of Middle TN around 12-14Z,
then intensify as it moves east. Increasing MLCAPE through the
day peaks around 1500 J/kg around 18Z, along with 0-3km SRH
values of 400-500 and 0-1km SRH around 200. This will be
conducive to supercells, as shown by the updraft helicity product
of the HREF, and with LCL heights under 1000m, a tornado threat
will be possible. A greater threat is expected from large hail, as
midlevel lapse rates will be steepening and the WBZ height
falling through the afternoon as the upper low approaches. Some
midlevel dry air and surface to midlevel theta-E difference of
25-30 deg C suggests a damaging wind threat as well. Bottom line,
we expect an active severe weather day tomorrow, mainly between
the hours of 10 AM and 6 PM. Some uncertainties with this severe
potential are how the early morning precip may limit
destabilization later in the morning, and if convective
development in GA will have an upstream stabilizing effect and
suppress the northward spread of low level moisture.
NWS for tomorrow….
Later in the morning, a second round of showers and thunderstorms
is expected to develop that could pose a severe threat to the
area. This activity is shown by the hi-res models to initiate
across N AL and the eastern portions of Middle TN around 12-14Z,
then intensify as it moves east. Increasing MLCAPE through the
day peaks around 1500 J/kg around 18Z, along with 0-3km SRH
values of 400-500 and 0-1km SRH around 200. This will be
conducive to supercells, as shown by the updraft helicity product
of the HREF, and with LCL heights under 1000m, a tornado threat
will be possible. A greater threat is expected from large hail, as
midlevel lapse rates will be steepening and the WBZ height
falling through the afternoon as the upper low approaches. Some
midlevel dry air and surface to midlevel theta-E difference of
25-30 deg C suggests a damaging wind threat as well. Bottom line,
we expect an active severe weather day tomorrow, mainly between
the hours of 10 AM and 6 PM. Some uncertainties with this severe
potential are how the early morning precip may limit
destabilization later in the morning, and if convective
development in GA will have an upstream stabilizing effect and
suppress the northward spread of low level moisture.
