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SIAP: Vegas Rankings of the Top 25 - Vols #7, UF #29

dagley07

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Mar 15, 2007
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Alabama remains the No. 1 team, increasing its lead over every other team. Right now, the Crimson Tide are about four points better than any other team on a neutral field. The only teams within seven points of Alabama's ranking are Florida State, Ohio State and Michigan.

Note: All futures odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.


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1. Alabama Crimson Tide (Last week: No. 1)

Nick Saban might not be impressed with the Crimson Tide, but the Vegas rankings are. They are the No. 1 team by a wide margin according to Phil Steele and Gold Sheet. FPI, however, ranks Alabama as the No. 2 team. Alabama travels to Ole Miss this week as a double-digit road favorite, despite losing to the Rebels each of the last two seasons.


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2. Florida State Seminoles (Last week: No. 2)

Florida State is the No. 1 team in FPI, which is the only metric that doesn't place Alabama No. 1. This week could be Florida State's toughest test. FPI gives the Seminoles a 55 percent chance to beat Louisville, their lowest winning percentage in a single game all season. They are currently favored by 2.5 points on the road.

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3. Ohio State Buckeyes (Last week: No. 4)

Similar to Florida State, FPI predicts Week 3 to be Ohio State's toughest matchup this season -- in fact, FPI projects Oklahoma as a 54 percent favorite to beat Ohio State. Vegas disagrees, as the Buckeyes are currently a 2.5-point favorite. If the line flips, Ohio State is 6-0 outright as an underdog under Urban Meyer. The Buckeyes have covered their first two games by over 28 points more than the spread, most in the nation.

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4. Michigan Wolverines (Last week: No. 5)

For the second straight week, Michigan covered a spread of over 35 points. However, this did little to move their ratings either way. The Wolverines face their first Power 5 opponent of the season as it hosts Colorado, which is also 2-0 overall and against the spread.

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5. Clemson Tigers (Last week: No. 3)

A closer-than-expected game against Troy dropped the Tigers down the rankings, though they did remain in the top three in the Massey-Peabody ratings. Clemson gets another tune-up this week against FCS opponent South Carolina State before traveling to Georgia Tech the following Thursday. The Tigers' futures odds remain 7-1, but their power rating dropped over three points.

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6. Louisville Cardinals (Last week: No. 11)

Lamar Jackson and the Cardinals have covered their two games by 17.2 points per game over the spread, eighth best in the nation. They currently have 25-1 odds to win the College Football Playoff after opening at 60-1. Jackson's Heisman odds have also skyrocketed, as they are now 8-1 after opening at 100-1.

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7. Tennessee Volunteers (Last week: No. 6)

The Volunteers fell behind early against Virginia Tech, but they came back to easily cover the 11-point spread. Despite the win, they dropped slightly in two of the three ratings. The Volunteers will face Ohio this week before facing four consecutive ranked SEC opponents.

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8. LSU Tigers (Last week: No. 8)

LSU failed to cover for a second straight week, this time against FCS Jacksonville State. The Tigers opens their SEC schedule this week as a double-digit favorite against Mississippi State. LSU is 19-12-1 ATS as a road favorite under Les Miles.

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9. Oklahoma Sooners (Last week: No. 7)

After dispatching Louisiana-Monroe by 42 points last week (but not covering), Oklahoma now faces Ohio State as a home underdog. The last time Oklahoma was a home underdog was in 2000 against then-No. 1 Nebraska -- and Oklahoma won that game 31-14. However, FPI favors the Sooners to get the upset, favoring the Sooners with a 54 percent chance to win.

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10. Washington Huskies (Last week: No. 9)

The Huskies covered another large spread this week, and the futures odds have noticed. They are now 12-1 to win the title after opening at 40-1. FPI gives Washington an eight percent chance to enter bowl season undefeated, the fourth-best odds in FBS behind Boise State, Florida State and Michigan.

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11. Ole Miss Rebels (Last week: No. 12)

Ole Miss cruised to a 25-point win over Wofford, but it dropped to 0-2 against the spread. The Rebels take on No. 1 Alabama this week. Ole Miss has defeated Alabama outright each of the last two seasons as an underdog, including as a nine-point underdog in Tuscaloosa last season.

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12. Notre Dame Fighting Irish(Last week: No. 21)

Notre Dame bounced back from its loss to Texas by covering a 27.5-point spread against Nevada. The Irish now rank in the top 16 in all three ratings systems after being the composite No. 21 team last week. Notre Dame is an eight-point road favorite at Michigan State this week. It will be the first meeting between the two teams since 2013.

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13. Stanford Cardinal (Last week: No. 10)

After a bye week, Stanford hosts USC for Week 3. The Cardinal beat the Trojans twice last year, including in the Pac-12 Championship game. They covered the spread each time. Phil Steele is by far the highest on Stanford in our three metrics, ranking the Cardinal as the No. 5 team in FBS.

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14. Wisconsin Badgers (Last week: No. 18)

One week after beating LSU as a double-digit underdog, the Badgers easily covered a 21.5-point spread against Akron. They are now up to No. 11 in Phil Steele's rankings, but FPI is more bearish, slotting them at No. 20. Wisconsin is now a 33.5-point favorite against Georgia State. After that, the Badgers face four straight ranked teams.

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15. Auburn Tigers (Last week: No. 26)

A dominant win and cover over Arkansas State moves the Tigers up a few points in the rankings. Auburn covered a 20.5-point spread with a 51-14 win. They are the highest-ranked team in this week's ratings that were outside the top 25 last week.

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16. Baylor Bears (Last week: No. 15)

Baylor concludes its non-conference schedule this Friday at Rice. The Bears are currently a 30-point favorite. Last season when these teams met, the Bears led 42-10 at halftime and won 70-17.

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17. Georgia Bulldogs (Last week: No. 13)

Georgia's ratings are all over the board after beating middling FCS team Nicholls by just two points in Week 2. Massey-Peabody still trusts the Bulldogs, ranking them as the No. 8 team in FBS. However, neither of the other metrics rank Georgia higher than No. 30. Georgia visits Missouri this week as a six-point favorite, though FPI gives Georgia just a 52 percent chance to win.
 
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