*** Copied/Pasted from TOS - Original thread created at 2:25 p.m. (October 27th, 2015) ***
The Kentucky Wildcats and the Tennessee Volunteers face off on Saturday in Lexington in SEC college football action.
The Kentucky Wildcats are 4-3 this season but have lost their last two and games and three of their four SEC games. The Kentucky offense is averaging 24.7 points and 392.6 yards per game and they have turned the ball over 11 times. UK QB Patrick Towles has completed 60.3 percent of his passes with eight touchdowns and nine interceptions. Stanlehy Wilson leads the Wildcats in rushing with 551 yards and three touchdowns and Dorian Baker is the top receiver with 37 catches and three touchdowns and Garrett Johnson has 33 catches and a touchdown. The Kentucky defense is allowing 25.9 points and 405 yards per game with five interceptions, one fumble recovery, and 12 sacks. Josh Forrest leads Kentucky with 64 tackles, Cory Johnson has 46 tackles, and Marcus McWilson has 44 tackles. Kentucky hasn’t shown an ability to elevate their game.
The Tennessee Volunteers are 3-4 this season and they are coming off of a loss to Alabama last week. The Tennessee offense is averaging 33.9 points and 415.9 yards per game with six turnovers. VOl QB Joshua Dobbs has completed 58.1 percent of his passes with nine touchdowns and two interceptions and he has rushed for 387 yards and five touchdowns. Jalen Hurd leads the Tennessee ground attack with 664 yards and eight touchdowns and Josh Malone and Alvin Kamara each have 19 receptions. THe Tennessee defense is allowing 24.7 points and 411.1 yards per game with five interceptions, four fumble recoveries, and 14 sacks. Jalen Reeves-Maybin leads the Volunteers with 67 tackles, Brian Randolph has 41 tackles, and Derek Barnett has 34 tackles. Tennessee has blown several late leads and have been in each of their games.
Kentucky is 8-21 against the spread in their last 29 SEC games, 3-8 against the spread following a loss, and 1-5 against the spread in their last six home games. Tennessee is 5-2 against the spread following a loss, 7-1 against the spread in their last eight games against Kentucky, and 8-20-1 against the spread following a game that they didn’t cover the point spread. The favorite has covered the point spread in six of the last seven meetings of these two.
Opening Vegas Line: -7 Tennessee
Current Vegas Line: -7.5 to - 8.5 Tennessee
Projected Total: 55
I do not usually do this, but this week warrants an explanation into how I end up talking these. I usually try to go to 5-6 sportsbooks that produce their own lines. Westgate, Mirage, South Point, The Wynn, Hard Rock Casino, The M resort, and Green Valley Ranch cover the spectrum. Sometimes you get guys to talk, other guys not so much, especially if they have no interest in the game. For lack of better words, my conversations have deemed this game "The cannot miss game" for this week. I did not meet anyone, or have to prompt anyone as to who they were taking. Everyone said they are taking Tennessee on the spread, and even with them not being at home, this spread should have been around 11 or 12. With that being said, I am going to put the analysis down for the same 5 sharps as last week.
Lets begin
Sharp #1
I think Tennessee opened the eyes of the nation when they played Alabama. High NFL draft picks all over the place, and Tennessee did more than hold their own. They made an offense break tendencies that in turn might have hurt Tennessee in the end. I do not think people realized how much Alabama through out of sets they have never thrown out of. I also think people do not realize that if Coker had thrown the ball where he wanted to on a few plays, Tennessee would be sitting with another victory right now. All of that was to say that Tennessee is no fluke and there probably is not a one team in this nation that would want to see them right now. This is not a trap game them, this is a proving ground. This is a very appropriate time for people to realize just how young this team is. Everybody has a program defining recruiting class, and as much as Hurd and Barnett have contributed, the class that is going to propel Tennessee to the top is this freshman class. Dobbs has finally played a full calendar year as the starter. The play calling looks like it is getting on track. The defense looked very strong against Alabama. Tennessee out rushed Alabama in total yards and yards per attempt. This is a game where cross over to the elite, put this team away and let the young guys get more experience. This sharp believes all of that will happen. Too much youth getting comfortable playing at an elite level.
Tennessee 38 Kentucky 21
Sharp #2
This is not a great matchup for Kentucky. They have a really good player in Williams but he probably wont see much space to run in this game. Towles is going to have to carry the load and make play after play after play. This will only feed into Tennessee's new found pass rush. This sharp also does not see Kentucky stopping the Vols rushing attack or even coming close. Bowling Green has given up less rushing yards than Kentucky. Not a good sign. Take that into account that Kentucky is not a very good tackling team. This sharp does not see them being able to score enough to keep up with Tennessee. Might be close in the first half but Tennessee takes over second half.
Tennessee 33 Kentucky 18
Sharp #3
This sharp says this game means about as much to Kentucky as the Georgia game did to Tennessee. For that reason he was expecting a close game until the vols pull away for a 2 score victory. He was very adamant that this line was just wrong. The coaches will come in with a solid game plan that the vols can execute but heavy doses of the run game should be expected. The improvement that has been seen from the defensive line is rare, and you have to think that Kentucky cannot keep them at bay all game. This sharp said it last week and he emphasized it again, the young offensive linemen are getting better. No one is talking about 55. He is having a very good year. Another surprise was to see receivers fighting for the ball. If this continues to happen, there is not a team left on the schedule that should play within 14 points of the vols. This sharp still thinks Kentucky makes it interesting.
Tennessee 35 Kentucky 25
Sharp #4
At this point in the season, teams that are not competing for a championship have to find something to play for. Tennessee has something to play for. A conference title is slim, but they are preparing for a championship in 2016 right now. They are playing for the hopes that they get matched up with some heavyweight that slips up (He mentioned Florida St several times), and falls to a bowl game that Tennessee can reach. The young guys are improving at a rapid rate, and this team gets better every week. They are not stagnant. Really interested to see how much time the give to 8 on defense. He solidified a shaky half of the secondary in the Bama game. Kentucky does not have in its arsenal the ability to stop a team like Tennessee from scoring 28 or more points, and This sharp does not believe Kentucky has the firepower to get to 28 points. Their usage of Boom Williams is atrocious at times and he still makes them look good. Kentucky just is not good enough to keep this game close enough to have a chance.
Tennessee 42 Kentucky 24
Sharp #5
Tennessee has the ability to rush for 300 yards this game, and anytime that can happen, that means a serious loss is coming. The only reason I think this game might stay close or get close towards the end is because of the experience these coaches are going to want to get young Tennessee players. This sharp can also see Tennessee adding wrinkles to their passing game. He thinks that they should get the receivers involved early to soften up the defense early and then let the three headed rushing attack begin. Miss St is one the best passing teams in the conference, and Tennessee should take note to that blueprint against Kentucky. If you had asked this sharp two weeks ago about the score, he would have said that Kentucky would put some serious points on the board, but he also believes that Tennessee will make them one dimensional. Has no confidence that Kentucky can keep up in this game with only passing.
Tennessee 37 Kentucky 23
Sharp #1 is sharp #1 from UGA: he predicted Tenn cover but loss to Bama, UGA, FL, and OU would win and cover
Sharp #2 is the sharp from Ark: He predicted Bama would win and cover Ark would win and cover
Sharp #3 is sharp #3 from Fl: Picked the Over for Bama, OU over, and FL under
Sharp #4 is Sharp #2 from UGA: He picked Tenn cover vs bama but loss, also picked OU would cover and win and Tenn to cover and Win vs UGA
Sharp #5 is sharp #3 from UGA: Predicted Tenn cover vs Bama but loss, also picked UGA to cover and win
Very general discriptions for the most part on the day, but I think many are in shock at what the line is. A constant theme was the bye week being perfectly placed. So much experience and rest at the right time, and a good test right off the break. Another thing no one seem to put too much emphasis on was kicking. These last games should help him get his confidence up, but rather have the misses this season than next. Also, the trends are in favor of Tennessee.
Hope you guys enjoy
The Kentucky Wildcats and the Tennessee Volunteers face off on Saturday in Lexington in SEC college football action.
The Kentucky Wildcats are 4-3 this season but have lost their last two and games and three of their four SEC games. The Kentucky offense is averaging 24.7 points and 392.6 yards per game and they have turned the ball over 11 times. UK QB Patrick Towles has completed 60.3 percent of his passes with eight touchdowns and nine interceptions. Stanlehy Wilson leads the Wildcats in rushing with 551 yards and three touchdowns and Dorian Baker is the top receiver with 37 catches and three touchdowns and Garrett Johnson has 33 catches and a touchdown. The Kentucky defense is allowing 25.9 points and 405 yards per game with five interceptions, one fumble recovery, and 12 sacks. Josh Forrest leads Kentucky with 64 tackles, Cory Johnson has 46 tackles, and Marcus McWilson has 44 tackles. Kentucky hasn’t shown an ability to elevate their game.
The Tennessee Volunteers are 3-4 this season and they are coming off of a loss to Alabama last week. The Tennessee offense is averaging 33.9 points and 415.9 yards per game with six turnovers. VOl QB Joshua Dobbs has completed 58.1 percent of his passes with nine touchdowns and two interceptions and he has rushed for 387 yards and five touchdowns. Jalen Hurd leads the Tennessee ground attack with 664 yards and eight touchdowns and Josh Malone and Alvin Kamara each have 19 receptions. THe Tennessee defense is allowing 24.7 points and 411.1 yards per game with five interceptions, four fumble recoveries, and 14 sacks. Jalen Reeves-Maybin leads the Volunteers with 67 tackles, Brian Randolph has 41 tackles, and Derek Barnett has 34 tackles. Tennessee has blown several late leads and have been in each of their games.
Kentucky is 8-21 against the spread in their last 29 SEC games, 3-8 against the spread following a loss, and 1-5 against the spread in their last six home games. Tennessee is 5-2 against the spread following a loss, 7-1 against the spread in their last eight games against Kentucky, and 8-20-1 against the spread following a game that they didn’t cover the point spread. The favorite has covered the point spread in six of the last seven meetings of these two.
Opening Vegas Line: -7 Tennessee
Current Vegas Line: -7.5 to - 8.5 Tennessee
Projected Total: 55
I do not usually do this, but this week warrants an explanation into how I end up talking these. I usually try to go to 5-6 sportsbooks that produce their own lines. Westgate, Mirage, South Point, The Wynn, Hard Rock Casino, The M resort, and Green Valley Ranch cover the spectrum. Sometimes you get guys to talk, other guys not so much, especially if they have no interest in the game. For lack of better words, my conversations have deemed this game "The cannot miss game" for this week. I did not meet anyone, or have to prompt anyone as to who they were taking. Everyone said they are taking Tennessee on the spread, and even with them not being at home, this spread should have been around 11 or 12. With that being said, I am going to put the analysis down for the same 5 sharps as last week.
Lets begin
Sharp #1
I think Tennessee opened the eyes of the nation when they played Alabama. High NFL draft picks all over the place, and Tennessee did more than hold their own. They made an offense break tendencies that in turn might have hurt Tennessee in the end. I do not think people realized how much Alabama through out of sets they have never thrown out of. I also think people do not realize that if Coker had thrown the ball where he wanted to on a few plays, Tennessee would be sitting with another victory right now. All of that was to say that Tennessee is no fluke and there probably is not a one team in this nation that would want to see them right now. This is not a trap game them, this is a proving ground. This is a very appropriate time for people to realize just how young this team is. Everybody has a program defining recruiting class, and as much as Hurd and Barnett have contributed, the class that is going to propel Tennessee to the top is this freshman class. Dobbs has finally played a full calendar year as the starter. The play calling looks like it is getting on track. The defense looked very strong against Alabama. Tennessee out rushed Alabama in total yards and yards per attempt. This is a game where cross over to the elite, put this team away and let the young guys get more experience. This sharp believes all of that will happen. Too much youth getting comfortable playing at an elite level.
Tennessee 38 Kentucky 21
Sharp #2
This is not a great matchup for Kentucky. They have a really good player in Williams but he probably wont see much space to run in this game. Towles is going to have to carry the load and make play after play after play. This will only feed into Tennessee's new found pass rush. This sharp also does not see Kentucky stopping the Vols rushing attack or even coming close. Bowling Green has given up less rushing yards than Kentucky. Not a good sign. Take that into account that Kentucky is not a very good tackling team. This sharp does not see them being able to score enough to keep up with Tennessee. Might be close in the first half but Tennessee takes over second half.
Tennessee 33 Kentucky 18
Sharp #3
This sharp says this game means about as much to Kentucky as the Georgia game did to Tennessee. For that reason he was expecting a close game until the vols pull away for a 2 score victory. He was very adamant that this line was just wrong. The coaches will come in with a solid game plan that the vols can execute but heavy doses of the run game should be expected. The improvement that has been seen from the defensive line is rare, and you have to think that Kentucky cannot keep them at bay all game. This sharp said it last week and he emphasized it again, the young offensive linemen are getting better. No one is talking about 55. He is having a very good year. Another surprise was to see receivers fighting for the ball. If this continues to happen, there is not a team left on the schedule that should play within 14 points of the vols. This sharp still thinks Kentucky makes it interesting.
Tennessee 35 Kentucky 25
Sharp #4
At this point in the season, teams that are not competing for a championship have to find something to play for. Tennessee has something to play for. A conference title is slim, but they are preparing for a championship in 2016 right now. They are playing for the hopes that they get matched up with some heavyweight that slips up (He mentioned Florida St several times), and falls to a bowl game that Tennessee can reach. The young guys are improving at a rapid rate, and this team gets better every week. They are not stagnant. Really interested to see how much time the give to 8 on defense. He solidified a shaky half of the secondary in the Bama game. Kentucky does not have in its arsenal the ability to stop a team like Tennessee from scoring 28 or more points, and This sharp does not believe Kentucky has the firepower to get to 28 points. Their usage of Boom Williams is atrocious at times and he still makes them look good. Kentucky just is not good enough to keep this game close enough to have a chance.
Tennessee 42 Kentucky 24
Sharp #5
Tennessee has the ability to rush for 300 yards this game, and anytime that can happen, that means a serious loss is coming. The only reason I think this game might stay close or get close towards the end is because of the experience these coaches are going to want to get young Tennessee players. This sharp can also see Tennessee adding wrinkles to their passing game. He thinks that they should get the receivers involved early to soften up the defense early and then let the three headed rushing attack begin. Miss St is one the best passing teams in the conference, and Tennessee should take note to that blueprint against Kentucky. If you had asked this sharp two weeks ago about the score, he would have said that Kentucky would put some serious points on the board, but he also believes that Tennessee will make them one dimensional. Has no confidence that Kentucky can keep up in this game with only passing.
Tennessee 37 Kentucky 23
Sharp #1 is sharp #1 from UGA: he predicted Tenn cover but loss to Bama, UGA, FL, and OU would win and cover
Sharp #2 is the sharp from Ark: He predicted Bama would win and cover Ark would win and cover
Sharp #3 is sharp #3 from Fl: Picked the Over for Bama, OU over, and FL under
Sharp #4 is Sharp #2 from UGA: He picked Tenn cover vs bama but loss, also picked OU would cover and win and Tenn to cover and Win vs UGA
Sharp #5 is sharp #3 from UGA: Predicted Tenn cover vs Bama but loss, also picked UGA to cover and win
Very general discriptions for the most part on the day, but I think many are in shock at what the line is. A constant theme was the bye week being perfectly placed. So much experience and rest at the right time, and a good test right off the break. Another thing no one seem to put too much emphasis on was kicking. These last games should help him get his confidence up, but rather have the misses this season than next. Also, the trends are in favor of Tennessee.
Hope you guys enjoy
