hospitals and large gatherings. Essentially, you need places where you'd see and come into close contact with folks you wouldn't normally see. This is especially true of hospitals (and American hospitals) where we have them setup like factory lines and lots of times COVID patients would be mixing with non-COVID patients.
I stole this idea this from an article I read (long read, but very good) but basically, most of us come into contact with the same ~10 or so people every day - and even of these, only a few are in very close proximity on a regular basis.
This is why the virus spreading exponentially (each person infects 2 new people) was never going to be accurate with any form of social distancing present, especially if your circle is fairly closed. And any models relying on that fact were always going to overestimate worst case scenarios.
I stole this idea this from an article I read (long read, but very good) but basically, most of us come into contact with the same ~10 or so people every day - and even of these, only a few are in very close proximity on a regular basis.
This is why the virus spreading exponentially (each person infects 2 new people) was never going to be accurate with any form of social distancing present, especially if your circle is fairly closed. And any models relying on that fact were always going to overestimate worst case scenarios.
