News-Sentinel did a story on his “study.” None of the guy’s numbers are realistic unless he thinks our state’s population is north of 30 million. He says 132,000 lives saved in the state by a 3-month shutdown that doesn’t even suppress the virus. Keep in mind that the worst case for studies with no mitigation efforts had about 10 times that number total dead in the entire USA. TN has about 2% of the country’s people. Craziness.
No clicks for knoxnews peddling fake news.
No clicks for knoxnews peddling fake news.
Economists at the University of Tennessee Knoxville are calling foul on the debate over reopening the economy.
They say the fight between preventing the spread of COVID-19 and maintaining a healthy economy is a “false dichotomy.”
The bottom line, they report in a new economic impact analysis, is that if nonessential businesses are left open as the disease is circulating, Tennessee’s economy will lose $214 billion — that's 56.2% of the state's GDP.
This is their most conservative estimate. Their other projections are far worse.
“We cannot have a healthy economy in the face of COVID-19 and its accelerating rate of infection,” they write. “A completely open economy means extensive person-to-person contact and mass spread of the disease and its consequences.”
During the COVID-19 pandemic, there have been many calls to keep nonessential businesses open. In a USA TODAY op-ed, for example, Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson called for the majority of businesses to remain open to keep the economy afloat.
Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee has made similar overtures until very recently. He eventually issued a statewide stay-at-home order closing nonessential businesses. The governor had concerns about further damaging the economy's health.
"This was not motivated by Gov. Lee per se," explained study author and economist Dr. Matthew Murray. "It was really more focused on the general issue of the potential trade-offs."
It is true that closure orders have economic impacts. But an analysis from the Baker Center for Public Policy says that not doing enough to halt the spread of COVID-19 will have a tremendous, long-lasting impact to people and the economy.
"We cherish individual self-interest, but it can have negative consequences" said Murray. "This is a a classic case where self-interest can be disadvantageous to society."
The study looks at different outcomes for Tennessee, weighing the potential death rate, infectivity and different levels of closure or social distancing. None of the scenarios look good for the overall economy.
Here's what the study found:
They say the fight between preventing the spread of COVID-19 and maintaining a healthy economy is a “false dichotomy.”
The bottom line, they report in a new economic impact analysis, is that if nonessential businesses are left open as the disease is circulating, Tennessee’s economy will lose $214 billion — that's 56.2% of the state's GDP.
This is their most conservative estimate. Their other projections are far worse.
“We cannot have a healthy economy in the face of COVID-19 and its accelerating rate of infection,” they write. “A completely open economy means extensive person-to-person contact and mass spread of the disease and its consequences.”
During the COVID-19 pandemic, there have been many calls to keep nonessential businesses open. In a USA TODAY op-ed, for example, Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson called for the majority of businesses to remain open to keep the economy afloat.
Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee has made similar overtures until very recently. He eventually issued a statewide stay-at-home order closing nonessential businesses. The governor had concerns about further damaging the economy's health.
"This was not motivated by Gov. Lee per se," explained study author and economist Dr. Matthew Murray. "It was really more focused on the general issue of the potential trade-offs."
It is true that closure orders have economic impacts. But an analysis from the Baker Center for Public Policy says that not doing enough to halt the spread of COVID-19 will have a tremendous, long-lasting impact to people and the economy.
"We cherish individual self-interest, but it can have negative consequences" said Murray. "This is a a classic case where self-interest can be disadvantageous to society."
The study looks at different outcomes for Tennessee, weighing the potential death rate, infectivity and different levels of closure or social distancing. None of the scenarios look good for the overall economy.
Here's what the study found:
- Murray’s team forecasts that if 100,000 Tennesseans die in an “open economy” scenario, the state will lose more than double its GDP before accounting for the stress on the health care system and social factors.
- Each life was weighted at $9.4 million dollars. The figure was based on a U.S. government statistical estimate for the value of a human life from 2006, adjusted for inflation. Each death from COVID-19 was basically calculated as a $9 million hit to the state economy.
- Even though these numbers are grim, there is hope to be found. Murray’s team says that any social policy that saves more than 10,000 lives would “ensure the value of life exceeds the social cost of reduced economic output.”
- In other words, doing the most a state can to save lives would be more cost-effective than doing nothing, they say.
- The study projects that if social distancing policies are extended for three months, 132,000 lives would be saved. That is, according to the economists, $1.2 trillion worth of human life saved, or 3.3 times the state GDP.
