Some may ridicule this, but others will like it. (Yes, I have too much free time.)
Background:
I’m a stats nerd, so I copied all the 2002-17 Composite team rankings from 24/7 into a spreadsheet. (Pre-2002 info excluded because it appeared incomplete and unreliable.) I prefer to multiply each class’ Average by its Points (“A*P” for short) because it gives consideration to quantity (Points) and quality (Average) of the class. Sometimes it makes a difference; sometimes it doesn’t, but I personally like it.
E.g., Tennessee’s 2017 class, per 24/7 Composite, is:
Disclaimers:
Obviously, recruiting stats don’t account for busts, transfers, early NFL departures, overachievers, etc. This is a high-level snapshot of the talent level of a single class or roster (“roster” = four consecutive recruiting classes; e.g., a team’s “2017 roster” = the 2014-17 classes combined). I know this analysis isn’t fool-proof because success “on paper” doesn’t always translate to the field. I’m just having fun with numbers.
Observations:
Going back to 2005, almost every national champion has had the following characteristics: (1) A four-year recruiting rank in the top-8, and/or a QB who was invited to the Heisman ceremony. (2) At least five Composite 5* players.
By A*P Composite roster (i.e., 4-year sum) rankings, Tennessee was behind Florida and Georgia every season from 2006-16, but the Vols will pull ahead of Florida and close the gap with Georgia in 2017.
Georgia is the worst offender in the country of doing less with more, and Florida’s future rosters will be noticeably less talented than previous ones.
As shown above, Alabama might not have the most talent in total for the 2002-17 timeframe, but when you rank all rosters and all years, those seven consecutive #1 classes bear fruit.
The SEC has completely dominated recruiting since 2002. When combining all players signed by a conference since that time, the SEC has signed significantly more 5* and 4* players than any other single conference.
That was a lot of information. Hopefully, it was an interesting read.
Background:
I’m a stats nerd, so I copied all the 2002-17 Composite team rankings from 24/7 into a spreadsheet. (Pre-2002 info excluded because it appeared incomplete and unreliable.) I prefer to multiply each class’ Average by its Points (“A*P” for short) because it gives consideration to quantity (Points) and quality (Average) of the class. Sometimes it makes a difference; sometimes it doesn’t, but I personally like it.
E.g., Tennessee’s 2017 class, per 24/7 Composite, is:
- 17th by Points
- 21st by Average
- 17th by A*P
Disclaimers:
Obviously, recruiting stats don’t account for busts, transfers, early NFL departures, overachievers, etc. This is a high-level snapshot of the talent level of a single class or roster (“roster” = four consecutive recruiting classes; e.g., a team’s “2017 roster” = the 2014-17 classes combined). I know this analysis isn’t fool-proof because success “on paper” doesn’t always translate to the field. I’m just having fun with numbers.
Observations:
Going back to 2005, almost every national champion has had the following characteristics: (1) A four-year recruiting rank in the top-8, and/or a QB who was invited to the Heisman ceremony. (2) At least five Composite 5* players.
- There are two exceptions to the top-8 rule: 2010 Auburn was ranked 14th but had a Heisman QB, and 2016 Clemson was ranked 12th, but had a 2x Heisman finalist QB.
- 2010 Auburn is the only exception to the “five 5*” rule; they only had two, but one just happened to be Cam Newton, a generational talent.
- As you’ll see, further down, Tennessee is top-8 for 2017, but we will only have two Composite 5* players (Khalil and Trey).
By A*P Composite roster (i.e., 4-year sum) rankings, Tennessee was behind Florida and Georgia every season from 2006-16, but the Vols will pull ahead of Florida and close the gap with Georgia in 2017.
- The 2005 Tennessee roster was stockpiled with talent. Sure, the losing seasons in ’08 and the Dooley years were tough, but the 2005 Vols had the most talented roster in the SEC and 5th-most in the nation. What a wasted opportunity. (What if Cutcliffe had showed up one year earlier?)
- When looking at each year’s roster rank for Tennessee, Florida, and Georgia, the Vols were 3rd out of the three for 12 straight seasons, but that changes for the 2017 season. The gap was at its worst around 2008-09.
- Currently, Tennessee has overtaken Florida and will dramatically closed the gap with Georgia from 2016 to 2017. As you can see in the chart, the Vols’ 2017 roster comes in at 8th. Florida’s drop is the result of replacing 2013’s single class rank of 3rd with 2017’s single class rank of 12th.
Georgia is the worst offender in the country of doing less with more, and Florida’s future rosters will be noticeably less talented than previous ones.
- Not only have Georgia’s 4-year national roster ranks been 3rd-7th for 11 of the last 13 years (as shown in the Vols-Florida-Georgia chart, above), but when all the 2002-17 classes are summed together for each team, Georgia is 5th in A*P Composite. In other words, in total, UGA has signed the 5th most talented crop of players in the country, over the last 16 years. Yet they are the only team in the top-12 that doesn’t have a national championship in the BCS/CFP era.
- Surprisingly, Alabama only ranks 7th on this list—despite seven consecutive #1 classes—and has signed the third-most 5* Composite players (behind USC and FSU). This is primarily due to lackluster classes in the pre-Saban era
- For nine straight seasons (2006-14), Florida rode the Urban Meyer recruiting wave—which Muschamp continued—to teams that were ranked top-4 in the nation in A*P Composite roster ranks (see Vols-Florida-Georgia chart, above).
- In fact, the 2010 Florida class was, on paper, the most talented single class signed by any team in any year, since 2002. It included an astounding 3 of the top-6 in Composite player rankings (Ronald Powell, Dominique Easley, and Sharrif Floyd) and 14 (!) of the top-50 players (including Matt Elam, Chris Dunkley, Chaz Green, etc.).
- However, Swamp Donkey has not kept the momentum going. His recent single-class A*P Composite rankings have been 20th (2015 class) and 12th (2016 class), which caused Florida’s A*P Composite roster ranking to slide out of the top-10 (11th) in 2016, the first time it has done so.
- The data only goes back as far as the 2005 roster (i.e., 2002-05 classes combined), and 2016 was the first time in that span that Florida has not been top-7. As shown below, they will be 13th in 2017 roster rankings.
As shown above, Alabama might not have the most talent in total for the 2002-17 timeframe, but when you rank all rosters and all years, those seven consecutive #1 classes bear fruit.
- The top-50 rosters since 2005 are Alabama- and USC-heavy at the top, and Texas, Florida, LSU, and Ohio State make several appearances as well.
- Believe it or not, Tennessee’s highest appearance on this list is the 2014-17 classes (next year’s team) at #86. The 2013-16 classes (last year’s team) came in at #109.
- Since 2002, the SEC has signed more Composite 5* players than the next two highest conferences combined.
- The same is almost--but not quite--true of 4* players.
- Interestingly, two other conferences (ACC and B1G) have signed more 3* players since ’02.
- The SEC’s Average rating is also more than a point and a half higher than the Pac-12’s, who’s second in Average.
- Looking at only the 2017 rosters (i.e., 2014-17 classes combined) for the conferences, the SEC still totally dominates. The SEC has signed 60 Composite 5* players during the last four years, more than the remaining P5 schools combined (56).
That was a lot of information. Hopefully, it was an interesting read.
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