Long.
Almost waited to make this post until after the Arizona game (edit we beat them!!!) because I was curious how we looked but had some time this morning (our defense is legit). Also in basketball specific games mean almost nothing. Texas Tech game for example. Some said they caused Tennessee problems defensively. The reality was Tennessee had a horrendous shooting night consistently missing open in rhythm shots which means you will get beat 90% of the time.
(I will not publicly go heavy with criticism players games just for the record)
Tennessee breakdown
They can really shoot it. There will be games this year where we run good teams out of the gym. Like we did UNC.
- We have 4 guys who IMO can stroke it- Santi, Powell, Zakai, Kennedy are all really good shooters.
- We have 2 guys who can shoot it- JJJ and ORN
- Wildcard is Victor Bailey. He has rarely looked in sync this year to me. Lot of bad misses. For a kid who can shoot that tells me there is some mechanical things that have popped up. If he is on he will go for 20. If he is off there will be a lot of bad misses.
Point guard play- Kennedy is the best in the conference and will be the best in the country by the end of the year. Incredible player. So advanced for a young guy. Easy 1st round pick. If he was 6'3 he would go in the Top 5-10.
Depth- over the course of a grueling SEC schedule this will be a big deal. There are 3-4 good SEC teams who are playing 7-8 guys. That adds up in March. We should be much more fresh than a lot of teams. Also helps us with foul trouble.
Defensively- Tennessee IMO is pretty clearly the best defensive team in the SEC. The guard on ball defense is tremendous. We are keeping people in front at a high level. The team defense with JJJ, Fulky and ORN (really improved in this area) is strong. This is what they will have to rely on when shots aren't falling. Like the Texas Tech game had we not shot historically bad our defense would have won that game even though we couldn't throw it in the ocean from 3 or the FT line.
IMO their defense is not being talked about enough. We are absolutely clamping teams up this year. Its not sexy but it gives you a floor of 20 wins when you can stifle teams. We have 2 losses this year. A Top 5 Nova team scored 70 and Texas Tech scored 57 in OT with FTs late. Those losses we shoot horrendously but when you do that defense can give you a shot. This is an elite defensive team.
X Factor- easy. BHH. He can do things no one else can do from a physicality perspective, scoring and rebounding. The coaches will have to balance mistakes, being an 18 year old kid in practice with his upside.
2nd X Factor- Powell. He is a guy who can make plays off the bounce which is something no one else over 6 feet on this roster can truly do when it comes to getting to the rim.
Questions:
1) Who can get to the rim? Powell is really the only one and coaches aren't in love with him right now. If he and the coaches can get synced up he gives us an element that is desperately needed. A wing who can attack off the bounce and playmake. When shots aren't falling you need someone to slash.
2) Post scoring- Fulky has struggled this year. He will have to start playing with finesse instead of trying to play through guys. Again BHH gives you a chance to score down low.
Summary- This Tennessee team isn't perfect. Few teams ever are. But they have guard play, they can shoot, they defend and they have depth which will pay dividends late in the year when some teams are running on fumes. This is a new and a young team. They will look much better in February than they have until now. It is taking time to bring on freshman, reclass guys and transfers with returning guys in new roles. Because of their defense they have a floor which will have them as a 5 seed IMO. The top end ceiling because of guard play and defense is one of the last 2 seeds or a 3 seed. Defense and guard play is as nice of a combo as it gets in hoops.
The best way to combat teams who space the floor to play 1 on 1 and kick to hit 3s (Bama) is to be able to keep guys in front. Tennessee does that extremely well with their guards.
Rest of the SEC
I will throw a ranking and blurb about each team
Top half
1) Alabama- keeping them #1 for now in-spite of a rough stretch. They have a really good coach. They have really good guard play. Quinerly and Shackelford are pretty elite 1 on 1 players and when they are cooking it will be rough for you that night. They are not what they were last year. Not even close defensively. They combined being an elite defensive team with really really good versatile offense. Not as much this year but don't get lulled to sleep. They can go even if they have hit a rough patch which every team hits outside of the uber elite teams (Top 2-3 in the country).
This ranking is TBD. But keeping them #1 for now.
2) Auburn- They have maybe the best player in college basketball in Jabari Smith. Bruce is a great coach (I know some on here hate that but its true). They are tough. Kessler shouldn't have gone to Auburn but he and Smith protect the rim better than any team in the country. Erasers. KD Johnson from UGA has been great for them. Allen Flanigan is supposed to be back this week which gives them a stud. Biggest area they lack is true guard play.
3) LSU- pains me to put them here. Pains me Will Wade is allowed to coach. But they are extremely talented (paying guys helps), they are tough and his teams can just score. CAN NOT STAND THEM.
4) Tennessee- best chance to have the most complete team offensively with guard play, shooting and defense. This is dependent on BHH coming on strong and playing 25-30 minutes. You aren't beating those teams above with some of the rotation we have played in the post. (Thought it was huge that Barnes rolled with Powell for the Zona game. Now need BHH to continue coming on strong).
5) Kentucky- reputation and preseason ranking can influence. But they have looked so "meh" to me. Calipari didn't give them a gauntlet like he normally does in the pre conference. But they just don't look very good to me. They don't have the insane talent and athletes they normally have. They are better than last year but outside of the center who is a stud they just aren't great. They are solid but their center forces them to play slower and they have no depth. They needed TyTy Washington to be a Top 10-15 pick and he isn't. He is good but they needed great. They will benefit from the bottom half of the SEC being pretty bad.
6) Arkansas- Team of transfers. Takes them some time to gel. Really good coach and they are going to play really fast. They are still an unknown having played a light schedule.
Clear drop off
7) Florida- no depth. They play 7 guys. They can beat you but overall they aren't that good.
8) Miss State- same as above but less overall talent than UF.
Another drop off
South Carolina and Ole Miss- aren't very good but each has a guy who can get it going. 2 good coaches.
Drop off
Vandy, UGA and Mizzou are all miserable. If Vandy didn't have Pippen Jr they are a 6-7 win Power 5 team.
Go Vols
Almost waited to make this post until after the Arizona game (edit we beat them!!!) because I was curious how we looked but had some time this morning (our defense is legit). Also in basketball specific games mean almost nothing. Texas Tech game for example. Some said they caused Tennessee problems defensively. The reality was Tennessee had a horrendous shooting night consistently missing open in rhythm shots which means you will get beat 90% of the time.
(I will not publicly go heavy with criticism players games just for the record)
Tennessee breakdown
They can really shoot it. There will be games this year where we run good teams out of the gym. Like we did UNC.
- We have 4 guys who IMO can stroke it- Santi, Powell, Zakai, Kennedy are all really good shooters.
- We have 2 guys who can shoot it- JJJ and ORN
- Wildcard is Victor Bailey. He has rarely looked in sync this year to me. Lot of bad misses. For a kid who can shoot that tells me there is some mechanical things that have popped up. If he is on he will go for 20. If he is off there will be a lot of bad misses.
Point guard play- Kennedy is the best in the conference and will be the best in the country by the end of the year. Incredible player. So advanced for a young guy. Easy 1st round pick. If he was 6'3 he would go in the Top 5-10.
Depth- over the course of a grueling SEC schedule this will be a big deal. There are 3-4 good SEC teams who are playing 7-8 guys. That adds up in March. We should be much more fresh than a lot of teams. Also helps us with foul trouble.
Defensively- Tennessee IMO is pretty clearly the best defensive team in the SEC. The guard on ball defense is tremendous. We are keeping people in front at a high level. The team defense with JJJ, Fulky and ORN (really improved in this area) is strong. This is what they will have to rely on when shots aren't falling. Like the Texas Tech game had we not shot historically bad our defense would have won that game even though we couldn't throw it in the ocean from 3 or the FT line.
IMO their defense is not being talked about enough. We are absolutely clamping teams up this year. Its not sexy but it gives you a floor of 20 wins when you can stifle teams. We have 2 losses this year. A Top 5 Nova team scored 70 and Texas Tech scored 57 in OT with FTs late. Those losses we shoot horrendously but when you do that defense can give you a shot. This is an elite defensive team.
X Factor- easy. BHH. He can do things no one else can do from a physicality perspective, scoring and rebounding. The coaches will have to balance mistakes, being an 18 year old kid in practice with his upside.
2nd X Factor- Powell. He is a guy who can make plays off the bounce which is something no one else over 6 feet on this roster can truly do when it comes to getting to the rim.
Questions:
1) Who can get to the rim? Powell is really the only one and coaches aren't in love with him right now. If he and the coaches can get synced up he gives us an element that is desperately needed. A wing who can attack off the bounce and playmake. When shots aren't falling you need someone to slash.
2) Post scoring- Fulky has struggled this year. He will have to start playing with finesse instead of trying to play through guys. Again BHH gives you a chance to score down low.
Summary- This Tennessee team isn't perfect. Few teams ever are. But they have guard play, they can shoot, they defend and they have depth which will pay dividends late in the year when some teams are running on fumes. This is a new and a young team. They will look much better in February than they have until now. It is taking time to bring on freshman, reclass guys and transfers with returning guys in new roles. Because of their defense they have a floor which will have them as a 5 seed IMO. The top end ceiling because of guard play and defense is one of the last 2 seeds or a 3 seed. Defense and guard play is as nice of a combo as it gets in hoops.
The best way to combat teams who space the floor to play 1 on 1 and kick to hit 3s (Bama) is to be able to keep guys in front. Tennessee does that extremely well with their guards.
Rest of the SEC
I will throw a ranking and blurb about each team
Top half
1) Alabama- keeping them #1 for now in-spite of a rough stretch. They have a really good coach. They have really good guard play. Quinerly and Shackelford are pretty elite 1 on 1 players and when they are cooking it will be rough for you that night. They are not what they were last year. Not even close defensively. They combined being an elite defensive team with really really good versatile offense. Not as much this year but don't get lulled to sleep. They can go even if they have hit a rough patch which every team hits outside of the uber elite teams (Top 2-3 in the country).
This ranking is TBD. But keeping them #1 for now.
2) Auburn- They have maybe the best player in college basketball in Jabari Smith. Bruce is a great coach (I know some on here hate that but its true). They are tough. Kessler shouldn't have gone to Auburn but he and Smith protect the rim better than any team in the country. Erasers. KD Johnson from UGA has been great for them. Allen Flanigan is supposed to be back this week which gives them a stud. Biggest area they lack is true guard play.
3) LSU- pains me to put them here. Pains me Will Wade is allowed to coach. But they are extremely talented (paying guys helps), they are tough and his teams can just score. CAN NOT STAND THEM.
4) Tennessee- best chance to have the most complete team offensively with guard play, shooting and defense. This is dependent on BHH coming on strong and playing 25-30 minutes. You aren't beating those teams above with some of the rotation we have played in the post. (Thought it was huge that Barnes rolled with Powell for the Zona game. Now need BHH to continue coming on strong).
5) Kentucky- reputation and preseason ranking can influence. But they have looked so "meh" to me. Calipari didn't give them a gauntlet like he normally does in the pre conference. But they just don't look very good to me. They don't have the insane talent and athletes they normally have. They are better than last year but outside of the center who is a stud they just aren't great. They are solid but their center forces them to play slower and they have no depth. They needed TyTy Washington to be a Top 10-15 pick and he isn't. He is good but they needed great. They will benefit from the bottom half of the SEC being pretty bad.
6) Arkansas- Team of transfers. Takes them some time to gel. Really good coach and they are going to play really fast. They are still an unknown having played a light schedule.
Clear drop off
7) Florida- no depth. They play 7 guys. They can beat you but overall they aren't that good.
8) Miss State- same as above but less overall talent than UF.
Another drop off
South Carolina and Ole Miss- aren't very good but each has a guy who can get it going. 2 good coaches.
Drop off
Vandy, UGA and Mizzou are all miserable. If Vandy didn't have Pippen Jr they are a 6-7 win Power 5 team.
Go Vols
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