story on ESPN. list includes 3 teams our beloved Vols play this year..
http://www.espn.com/college-footbal...momentum-heading-2016-college-football-season
1. utah
2. florida
First four games: 66th percentile; Last four games: 37th percentile
Florida's best games last year didn't actually come in the first four weeks -- it whipped Ole Miss in Week 5 -- but the Gators make our list because of the severe drop-off in their performances down the stretch. The Gators' final four games last year included a 20-14 escape against Florida Atlantic, plus losses to Florida State, Alabama, and Michigan in which Florida managed to score a combined 24 points. The struggles could continue into this season. Tennessee on Sept. 24 (20 percent win likelihood) is a tough early test this year, and our projections give Florida an 88 percent chance of going 8-4 or worse.
3. vandy
First four games: 66th percentile; Last four games: 37th percentile
Vanderbilt faced Western Kentucky, Georgia and Ole Miss in the first four weeks last season and the Commodores' defense kept those games reasonably competitive. Their 1-3 start wasn't great, but their opponent-adjusted efficiency numbers were still above average. The wheels came off late in the year, closing with back-to-back 25-point losses at the hands of Texas A&M and Tennessee. Our projections are pretty bleak for Vandy again this fall: a better than 60 percent win likelihood against only two opponents, and a 93 percent chance of 5-7 record or worse.
4. ok state
5. tulsa
6. texas a&m
First four games: 80th percentile; Last four games: 60th percentile
The Aggies ascended into the top 10 of the AP poll last year after a hot start that included a dominant win in their opener against Arizona State and an overtime win over Arkansas in late September. They lost five of their final eight games to finish 8-5, and though their final four games didn't include any embarrassments, the Aggies quickly regressed from their peak. Our projections anticipate problems again this fall in a brutal SEC West division and a nonconference showdown with UCLA. A&M has the nation's third-toughest projected schedule, according to our ratings.
7. Navy
8. georgia tech
9. boise state
10. cincy
http://www.espn.com/college-footbal...momentum-heading-2016-college-football-season
1. utah
2. florida
First four games: 66th percentile; Last four games: 37th percentile
Florida's best games last year didn't actually come in the first four weeks -- it whipped Ole Miss in Week 5 -- but the Gators make our list because of the severe drop-off in their performances down the stretch. The Gators' final four games last year included a 20-14 escape against Florida Atlantic, plus losses to Florida State, Alabama, and Michigan in which Florida managed to score a combined 24 points. The struggles could continue into this season. Tennessee on Sept. 24 (20 percent win likelihood) is a tough early test this year, and our projections give Florida an 88 percent chance of going 8-4 or worse.
3. vandy
First four games: 66th percentile; Last four games: 37th percentile
Vanderbilt faced Western Kentucky, Georgia and Ole Miss in the first four weeks last season and the Commodores' defense kept those games reasonably competitive. Their 1-3 start wasn't great, but their opponent-adjusted efficiency numbers were still above average. The wheels came off late in the year, closing with back-to-back 25-point losses at the hands of Texas A&M and Tennessee. Our projections are pretty bleak for Vandy again this fall: a better than 60 percent win likelihood against only two opponents, and a 93 percent chance of 5-7 record or worse.
4. ok state
5. tulsa
6. texas a&m
First four games: 80th percentile; Last four games: 60th percentile
The Aggies ascended into the top 10 of the AP poll last year after a hot start that included a dominant win in their opener against Arizona State and an overtime win over Arkansas in late September. They lost five of their final eight games to finish 8-5, and though their final four games didn't include any embarrassments, the Aggies quickly regressed from their peak. Our projections anticipate problems again this fall in a brutal SEC West division and a nonconference showdown with UCLA. A&M has the nation's third-toughest projected schedule, according to our ratings.
7. Navy
8. georgia tech
9. boise state
10. cincy
