We’re just eight days away from Tennessee’s 2019 opener against Georgia State.
Week 1 prep starts today, so here’s a rundown of 10 Things I Think I Think as the Vols wrap up preseason camp.
1. One of the more interesting discussions this offseason has been the variance of advanced analytics in projecting Tennessee’s 2019 season. ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols around a 50 percent chance to win nine games, while S&P+ and Vegas both see 7-5 or 6-6 seasons. Phil Steele, who isn’t using advanced metrics with his data, is a bit higher on Tennessee’s chances.
In my opinion, a major factor in the variance of projections is how you evaluate the fact Tennessee returns so many players from last season.
Per two different sites, Tennessee ranks No. 2 in the country in returning production.
On the one hand, that would suggest more continuity. A Year 2 leap. And yet, many of the guys who were major factors in 2018 might be resorted to the bench this fall considering how many 2019 signees (more on them in a moment) are expected to contribute. It’s the old Vandy corollary (pre James Franklin). Does it really matter how many guys you have back if many aren’t very good?
How does that calculus tip or sway the balance in the season projections?
To me, the Vols have a higher ceiling this falll with newcomers like Darnell Wright, Quavaris Crouch, Henry To’oto’o, Eric Gray and others, plus the natural growth in Pruitt’s second season. But the team’s floor is lower. It’s easy to just say, ‘Oh, we went 5-7 a year ago and should’ve beat South Carolina, so why won’t we win eight games this year?”
That’s just not the way it works.
We’ll release our season projections next week, but I’ve maintained I believe this is a 7-5 team. Could they win eight games? Sure, but with the unknowns, as Pruitt said himself earlier this week, 6-6 is just as likely.
“My dad has always had a saying, ‘For every freshman you play is a loss that you should have on your record.’ That’s the way he looks at it in high school and if you look at it along the way (in college) it’s probably about right.”
2. At this point, Monday’s depth chart for the offensive line might as well just list who isn’t in the mix right now. As position coach Will Friend said this week, “They’ve all had their days.”
Pruitt believes eight to 10 guys “deserve to play,” but Friend admitted that’s partly because “nobody has jumped out and said, ‘I’m the guy. You can’t take me off the field.’”
The Vols have worked about every combination imaginable, with Ryan Johnson even turning some heads at right tackle. During the final scrimmage last weekend, Marcus Tatum actually played more at left tackle than both Wanya Morris or Jahmir Johnson. Freshman Darnell Wright got the most snaps at right tackle, per sources.
And yet, it wouldn’t be a real surprise to anyone if Tatum opened the Georgia State game back at right tackle and Wright was on the bench. The Vols have rotated three guys all camp at right guard, with K’Rojhn Calbert looking like a starter one day only for Jerome Carvin to take his spot the next.
I expect the situation to play out over the course of the first three weeks of the season. The Vols will likely ride whatever “hot hand” during the games, evaluate the film and ideally, settle on a group when they head to Gainesville.
If they don’t know their best five then? Well, that means they don’t have five guys who can truly answer Friend (and Jim Chaney’s) most important factor for playing time.
“Who can play clean?” Who is going to make the least amount of mistakes?”
As Chaney said himself earlier this fall, “I don’t believe it’s possible (to coach around an offensive line). You can’t hide them.”
Tennessee’s season could depend on how quickly it can settle on a consistent group. It’s why Chaney has spent so much time with the unit this preseason. He can’t be some “savior” for the offense if the Vols can’t block again.
3. At defensive line, there appears to be a bit more separation. The Vols will also rotate plenty of bodies here, too, but Darel Middleton, Greg Emerson and Aubrey Solomon have worked more with the 1s than any other threesome and are set to start Week 1 — with the caveat we still don’t know Solomon’s status but it could be resolved as soon as today. If there’s no answer from the NCAA by Tuesday, look for Savion Williams or Matthew Butler to bump up into the first-team base unit.
4. Tennessee’s depth chart (or organizational chart or whatever Pruitt wants to call it) will be overanalyzed on Monday. That’s a given. But when we talk above or below the line (in terms of who will contribute on Day 1), here’s my current thinking on Tennessee’s freshmen:
Right now, eight guys are absolutely above the line.
Obviously, To’oto’o is slated to start, while both freshman offensive tackles (Wanya Morris and Darnell Wright) will figure prominently in the rotation. Eric Gray is in line for lots of touches early, especially if he can hold onto the football. Meanwhile, Warren Burrell is already the team’s No. 3 cornerback and both Quavaris Crouch and Roman Harrison will have situational roles to start the season. Finally, Elijah Simmons is the backup nose tackle.
That’s nearly as many seniors who are in line for situational or starting roles in 2019: Jauan Jennings, Daniel Bituli, Brandon Kennedy, Marquez Callaway, Dominick Wood-Anderson, Brandon Johnson, Nigel Warrior and Tyler Byrd.
That stat alone illustrates the youth movement already taking place this fall. By midseason, even more newcomers could become factors. Again, there’s lots of promise with this group but playing this many freshman doesn’t come without potential peril.
5. I think the the next group of freshmen will likely play some, especially against Georgia State and Chattanooga, but belong in the camp Pruitt discussed late last week — they might not see a ton of snaps the first month of the year but by midseason they could be starting — guys like Jaylen McCollough and Ramel Keyton.
I’m skeptical that Keyton truly cracks the wideout rotation, but he’s generated some buzz behind the scenes this week. Could he be coming on late in camp?
As for the rest of the rookies in the 2019 class, several will factor on special teams (Jerrod Means, Aaron Beasley and possibly Tyus Fields), while it remains to be seen what role tight ends Sean Brown and Jackson Lowe have. Neither have separated themselves much this preseason and are working behind backups like Austin Pope and Andrew Craig.
Brian Maurer belongs in his own category here, as the Sunshine State native should see time in several games, likely preserving a redshirt season, but his entire role could change if something were to happen to Guarantano.
6. One storyline I thought got lost in the shuffle this week was Pruitt essentially saying the playcalling duties defensively won’t be “any different than it was before.”
Last season, Kevin Sherrer made many of the calls for Tennessee, with Pruitt holding final say-so. This offseason, much was made about Pruitt’s decision to hand over primary play-calling duties to new coordinator Derrick Ansley, but the Vols’ head coach is sticking with last season’s philosophy — If he likes a call, he’ll go with it. If not, he’ll change it.
“Why am I the head coach at Tennessee? Probably because I was a good play-caller at one time, right?” Pruitt said, rhetorically.
“So I think me completely just getting out of it wouldn’t be very smart. Derrick has a great feel — and I’ve watched him in camp and in spring — of what we want to get accomplished. I mean, he’ll do a good job with it.
“And if he needs some help, I’ll help him, right?”
Makes sense to me.
Week 1 prep starts today, so here’s a rundown of 10 Things I Think I Think as the Vols wrap up preseason camp.
1. One of the more interesting discussions this offseason has been the variance of advanced analytics in projecting Tennessee’s 2019 season. ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols around a 50 percent chance to win nine games, while S&P+ and Vegas both see 7-5 or 6-6 seasons. Phil Steele, who isn’t using advanced metrics with his data, is a bit higher on Tennessee’s chances.
In my opinion, a major factor in the variance of projections is how you evaluate the fact Tennessee returns so many players from last season.
Per two different sites, Tennessee ranks No. 2 in the country in returning production.
On the one hand, that would suggest more continuity. A Year 2 leap. And yet, many of the guys who were major factors in 2018 might be resorted to the bench this fall considering how many 2019 signees (more on them in a moment) are expected to contribute. It’s the old Vandy corollary (pre James Franklin). Does it really matter how many guys you have back if many aren’t very good?
How does that calculus tip or sway the balance in the season projections?
To me, the Vols have a higher ceiling this falll with newcomers like Darnell Wright, Quavaris Crouch, Henry To’oto’o, Eric Gray and others, plus the natural growth in Pruitt’s second season. But the team’s floor is lower. It’s easy to just say, ‘Oh, we went 5-7 a year ago and should’ve beat South Carolina, so why won’t we win eight games this year?”
That’s just not the way it works.
We’ll release our season projections next week, but I’ve maintained I believe this is a 7-5 team. Could they win eight games? Sure, but with the unknowns, as Pruitt said himself earlier this week, 6-6 is just as likely.
“My dad has always had a saying, ‘For every freshman you play is a loss that you should have on your record.’ That’s the way he looks at it in high school and if you look at it along the way (in college) it’s probably about right.”
2. At this point, Monday’s depth chart for the offensive line might as well just list who isn’t in the mix right now. As position coach Will Friend said this week, “They’ve all had their days.”
Pruitt believes eight to 10 guys “deserve to play,” but Friend admitted that’s partly because “nobody has jumped out and said, ‘I’m the guy. You can’t take me off the field.’”
The Vols have worked about every combination imaginable, with Ryan Johnson even turning some heads at right tackle. During the final scrimmage last weekend, Marcus Tatum actually played more at left tackle than both Wanya Morris or Jahmir Johnson. Freshman Darnell Wright got the most snaps at right tackle, per sources.
And yet, it wouldn’t be a real surprise to anyone if Tatum opened the Georgia State game back at right tackle and Wright was on the bench. The Vols have rotated three guys all camp at right guard, with K’Rojhn Calbert looking like a starter one day only for Jerome Carvin to take his spot the next.
I expect the situation to play out over the course of the first three weeks of the season. The Vols will likely ride whatever “hot hand” during the games, evaluate the film and ideally, settle on a group when they head to Gainesville.
If they don’t know their best five then? Well, that means they don’t have five guys who can truly answer Friend (and Jim Chaney’s) most important factor for playing time.
“Who can play clean?” Who is going to make the least amount of mistakes?”
As Chaney said himself earlier this fall, “I don’t believe it’s possible (to coach around an offensive line). You can’t hide them.”
Tennessee’s season could depend on how quickly it can settle on a consistent group. It’s why Chaney has spent so much time with the unit this preseason. He can’t be some “savior” for the offense if the Vols can’t block again.
3. At defensive line, there appears to be a bit more separation. The Vols will also rotate plenty of bodies here, too, but Darel Middleton, Greg Emerson and Aubrey Solomon have worked more with the 1s than any other threesome and are set to start Week 1 — with the caveat we still don’t know Solomon’s status but it could be resolved as soon as today. If there’s no answer from the NCAA by Tuesday, look for Savion Williams or Matthew Butler to bump up into the first-team base unit.
4. Tennessee’s depth chart (or organizational chart or whatever Pruitt wants to call it) will be overanalyzed on Monday. That’s a given. But when we talk above or below the line (in terms of who will contribute on Day 1), here’s my current thinking on Tennessee’s freshmen:
Right now, eight guys are absolutely above the line.
Obviously, To’oto’o is slated to start, while both freshman offensive tackles (Wanya Morris and Darnell Wright) will figure prominently in the rotation. Eric Gray is in line for lots of touches early, especially if he can hold onto the football. Meanwhile, Warren Burrell is already the team’s No. 3 cornerback and both Quavaris Crouch and Roman Harrison will have situational roles to start the season. Finally, Elijah Simmons is the backup nose tackle.
That’s nearly as many seniors who are in line for situational or starting roles in 2019: Jauan Jennings, Daniel Bituli, Brandon Kennedy, Marquez Callaway, Dominick Wood-Anderson, Brandon Johnson, Nigel Warrior and Tyler Byrd.
That stat alone illustrates the youth movement already taking place this fall. By midseason, even more newcomers could become factors. Again, there’s lots of promise with this group but playing this many freshman doesn’t come without potential peril.
5. I think the the next group of freshmen will likely play some, especially against Georgia State and Chattanooga, but belong in the camp Pruitt discussed late last week — they might not see a ton of snaps the first month of the year but by midseason they could be starting — guys like Jaylen McCollough and Ramel Keyton.
I’m skeptical that Keyton truly cracks the wideout rotation, but he’s generated some buzz behind the scenes this week. Could he be coming on late in camp?
As for the rest of the rookies in the 2019 class, several will factor on special teams (Jerrod Means, Aaron Beasley and possibly Tyus Fields), while it remains to be seen what role tight ends Sean Brown and Jackson Lowe have. Neither have separated themselves much this preseason and are working behind backups like Austin Pope and Andrew Craig.
Brian Maurer belongs in his own category here, as the Sunshine State native should see time in several games, likely preserving a redshirt season, but his entire role could change if something were to happen to Guarantano.
6. One storyline I thought got lost in the shuffle this week was Pruitt essentially saying the playcalling duties defensively won’t be “any different than it was before.”
Last season, Kevin Sherrer made many of the calls for Tennessee, with Pruitt holding final say-so. This offseason, much was made about Pruitt’s decision to hand over primary play-calling duties to new coordinator Derrick Ansley, but the Vols’ head coach is sticking with last season’s philosophy — If he likes a call, he’ll go with it. If not, he’ll change it.
“Why am I the head coach at Tennessee? Probably because I was a good play-caller at one time, right?” Pruitt said, rhetorically.
“So I think me completely just getting out of it wouldn’t be very smart. Derrick has a great feel — and I’ve watched him in camp and in spring — of what we want to get accomplished. I mean, he’ll do a good job with it.
“And if he needs some help, I’ll help him, right?”
Makes sense to me.
