In Friday’s column, I empty out the notebook with 10 Things I Think I Think on Tennessee-Mississippi State.
1. Two weeks ago, Mississippi State got blitzed on the road at Auburn. Last weekend, Tennessee was bulldozed in the final few minutes before halftime against Georgia. Both programs are looking to stop the bleeding in a Year 2 that hasn’t gone according to script thus far.
Saturday is truly crossroads game for two desperate teams. The Vols have No. 1 Alabama coming up. State hosts LSU with several other tough SEC West games remaining. This is a game that Jeremy Pruitt needs to find a way to win. Throw the kitchen sink. Whatever it takes. If the Vols start the season 1-6 with another tossup game coming against South Carolina then the national noise surrounding Pruitt, fairly or not, will start to reach a fever pitch.
2. Tennessee is likely to start its fifth different offensive line combination in six games Saturday. With Riley Locklear still not 100% after last weekend’s concussion, the expectation is Ryan Johnson will start at right guard. Both freshman tackles (Wanya Morris and Darnell Wright) have been solid at times in pass protection, mainly in first halves, but it will be their play in the run game that could have a big impact on Tennessee’s offensive success Saturday.
Going back over Auburn’s blowout win over Mississippi State — 578 total yards at 8.38 per play — the Tigers had a ton of success running wide. According to PFF, Auburn had four runs over 10 yards off tackle, and 164 of its 220 rush yards were to the outside. These were off counters, jet sweeps, typical off tackle runs and toss sweeps.
Now, Tennessee has not had much success running the ball at all this season, but in its best game against BYU, the Vols did well getting to the perimeter. Wright has graded out as the league’s worst run blocker as a starting offensive lineman, per PFF. He needs to play with more physicality this weekend. Same for Morris.
3. Overall, State’s defense is bad, ranking No. 13 in the SEC in total yardage (401.4) and yards per play (6.21). The Bulldogs are 10th in the conference against the pass, and they allowed Bo Nix to actually look like a 5-star quarterback with his best performance of the season. When the Tigers weren’t running wide, they were chucking the ball deep. Nix was an astounding 5 of 6 for 172 yards and two touchdowns on throws over 20 yards against Mississippi State, many wide open shots. This was Tennessee’s strategy last weekend against Georgia, as Brian Maurer had eight attempts over 20 yards. I would expect a similar gameplan against a suspect State defense.
It should be noted that much of MSU’s lackluster production in 2019 is without several of its best players. Linebacker Willie Gay and defensive tackle Lee Autry have both played in just one game this season. Is this a weekend the a la carte suspended players play? It would change the outlook of Bob Shoop’s unit, as Gay is the team's best defensive player. One defensive stat — and it’s an important one — where Shoop has dialed up the right plays are on third down. The Bulldogs are tied with UGA in opponent third down conversions, ahead of teams like Alabama, South Carolina and Florida.
4. How Tennessee defends Mississippi State early on should be telling about what they think of the Bulldogs’ attack, regardless of who plays quarterback. Last weekend against Georgia, the Vols played a bunch of 2-high safeties — for two reasons really. They didn’t want Jake Fromm to throw it over their heads, but they also didn’t want a 10-15 yard to turn into a 50-yard run.
But State presents a different challenge. For one, freshman quarterback Garrett Shrader rarely throws it deep. As mentioned previously, Maurer, in his first-career start, took eight deep shots. In four games, Shrader has just 13 such attempts, completing just three of those passes. Even if Penn State grad transfer Tommy Stevens gets some real playing time, he doesn’t throw the ball vertically much either. In four games, Stevens has just 11 throws over 20 yards.
Most of Shrader’s attempts come off RPOs. They’re quick digs, slants and bubbles. Tennessee is obviously going to be dialed into MSU’s run game, (more on that in a moment) and we saw in practice this week all the different pressure packages to disrupt the zone-read, QB power stuff, so I wonder if the Vols are going to play much more Cover-1 and robber coverage than they typically do under Jeremy Pruitt. Nigel Warrior could use a second straight strong performance.
5. Kylin Hill is legit, with Brent Hubbs even deeming the junior the most underrated tailback in the SEC. Hill leads the conference in rushing with 596 yards — with 344 yards coming after contact, per PFF. He has 21 runs over 10 yards. Comparatively, Ty Chandler has 320 total rushing yards this season, and as a team, Tennessee has 15 runs over 10 yards.
Hill is a workhorse tailback, with 108 carries already this season. Shrader (46 for 312 yards and two scores) has just 10 fewer attempts than Chandler this season from the quarterback position.
Tackling has been a major emphasis this week. The Vols didn’t miss many against Georgia, but they got knocked back a bunch, and that’s concerning concerning they were coming off the bye when their legs were the freshest. Now, Tennessee is tasked with stopping the league’s second-best runner in yards after contact coming off an idle date. It’s a big test.
6. After Hill, Tennessee must identify where No. 5 is on the field at all times. The Bulldogs pretty much only throw it to one guy. Osirus Mitchell is MSU’s lone wideout with more than 9 catches this season. He’s big and physical (6-5, 215 pounds) and does a lot of damage after the catch. On the year, Mitchell has 19 receptions for 277 yards and four scores. It will be interesting to see who draws that assignment for UT: Bryce Thompson, Kenneth George or Alontae Taylor?
7. Mississippi State has some rangy corners and safeties — with four starters north of 6-foot-1. Cameron Dantzler (6-2, 185 pounds) is a legit NFL prospect, allowing just four completions on 12 targets with a pick and five pass breakups this year. But the rest of MSU’s secondary is suspect. Expect the Vols to target Brian Cole, who has already allowed 19 receptions this season, nickel corner Maurice Smitherman, six receptions allowed on eight targets, and safety CJ Morgan, who does have a pick but has also surrendered 16 catches through five games.
8. Pruitt has talked incessantly, and with good reason, on how important it is for Tennessee to take care of the football. Mississippi State is actually good at forcing turnovers, ranking No. 2 in the SEC.
In 12 games against Power 5 teams and one independent the last two seasons, Tennessee has a -7 turnover margin.
9. Despite starting just two games, sophomore cornerback Alontae Taylor has actually logged the most snaps at outside cornerback for the Vols this season (252). Still, Taylor’s play has been very up and down, and the staff continues to challenge his down-to-down confidence and consistency. In my favorite quote of the week, Pruitt outlined Taylor’s development thus far:
“He’s learning how to be a defensive back. Had an opportunity to play last year. Played a lot of football, and at times played really well. At times, he was probably a little lost, just being new to the position. He’s a guy that works extremely hard every single day. He’s gifted athletically. He has the want-to.
"But the one thing about that position is if you ever mess up there, everybody knows. Even your momma. It’s not very forgiving. You mess up at three-technique nobody knows. You mess up at inside backer, very few people know. If you mess up at corner, the whole world knows. That’s a position you have to got to have a short memory and go back and go to work. I think he’s tried to do that.”
10. In a bit of a surprise (at least to me), Tennessee is a 7-point underdog against MSU. The line opened at +6.5 before it was quickly bet up to a touchdown. It hasn’t moved since, neither has the over/under (53). Thus far, 65% of the tickets are on the Bulldogs.
Part of the reason Mississippi State is a significant road favorite despite its shoddy 3-2 record is because of the disparity between the two teams in most analytical power rankings. For instance, Sagarin has the Bulldogs has 26th nationally, while the Vols check in at 90. Now, ESPN’s FPI is still fairly high on the Vols, ranking them 50th overall, but the Bulldogs are in the same zip code at No. 27.
In Bill Connelly’s computer SP+ projections, he sees Tennessee covering the spread but losing 31-25.
Enjoy the game everybody.
1. Two weeks ago, Mississippi State got blitzed on the road at Auburn. Last weekend, Tennessee was bulldozed in the final few minutes before halftime against Georgia. Both programs are looking to stop the bleeding in a Year 2 that hasn’t gone according to script thus far.
Saturday is truly crossroads game for two desperate teams. The Vols have No. 1 Alabama coming up. State hosts LSU with several other tough SEC West games remaining. This is a game that Jeremy Pruitt needs to find a way to win. Throw the kitchen sink. Whatever it takes. If the Vols start the season 1-6 with another tossup game coming against South Carolina then the national noise surrounding Pruitt, fairly or not, will start to reach a fever pitch.
2. Tennessee is likely to start its fifth different offensive line combination in six games Saturday. With Riley Locklear still not 100% after last weekend’s concussion, the expectation is Ryan Johnson will start at right guard. Both freshman tackles (Wanya Morris and Darnell Wright) have been solid at times in pass protection, mainly in first halves, but it will be their play in the run game that could have a big impact on Tennessee’s offensive success Saturday.
Going back over Auburn’s blowout win over Mississippi State — 578 total yards at 8.38 per play — the Tigers had a ton of success running wide. According to PFF, Auburn had four runs over 10 yards off tackle, and 164 of its 220 rush yards were to the outside. These were off counters, jet sweeps, typical off tackle runs and toss sweeps.
Now, Tennessee has not had much success running the ball at all this season, but in its best game against BYU, the Vols did well getting to the perimeter. Wright has graded out as the league’s worst run blocker as a starting offensive lineman, per PFF. He needs to play with more physicality this weekend. Same for Morris.
3. Overall, State’s defense is bad, ranking No. 13 in the SEC in total yardage (401.4) and yards per play (6.21). The Bulldogs are 10th in the conference against the pass, and they allowed Bo Nix to actually look like a 5-star quarterback with his best performance of the season. When the Tigers weren’t running wide, they were chucking the ball deep. Nix was an astounding 5 of 6 for 172 yards and two touchdowns on throws over 20 yards against Mississippi State, many wide open shots. This was Tennessee’s strategy last weekend against Georgia, as Brian Maurer had eight attempts over 20 yards. I would expect a similar gameplan against a suspect State defense.
It should be noted that much of MSU’s lackluster production in 2019 is without several of its best players. Linebacker Willie Gay and defensive tackle Lee Autry have both played in just one game this season. Is this a weekend the a la carte suspended players play? It would change the outlook of Bob Shoop’s unit, as Gay is the team's best defensive player. One defensive stat — and it’s an important one — where Shoop has dialed up the right plays are on third down. The Bulldogs are tied with UGA in opponent third down conversions, ahead of teams like Alabama, South Carolina and Florida.
4. How Tennessee defends Mississippi State early on should be telling about what they think of the Bulldogs’ attack, regardless of who plays quarterback. Last weekend against Georgia, the Vols played a bunch of 2-high safeties — for two reasons really. They didn’t want Jake Fromm to throw it over their heads, but they also didn’t want a 10-15 yard to turn into a 50-yard run.
But State presents a different challenge. For one, freshman quarterback Garrett Shrader rarely throws it deep. As mentioned previously, Maurer, in his first-career start, took eight deep shots. In four games, Shrader has just 13 such attempts, completing just three of those passes. Even if Penn State grad transfer Tommy Stevens gets some real playing time, he doesn’t throw the ball vertically much either. In four games, Stevens has just 11 throws over 20 yards.
Most of Shrader’s attempts come off RPOs. They’re quick digs, slants and bubbles. Tennessee is obviously going to be dialed into MSU’s run game, (more on that in a moment) and we saw in practice this week all the different pressure packages to disrupt the zone-read, QB power stuff, so I wonder if the Vols are going to play much more Cover-1 and robber coverage than they typically do under Jeremy Pruitt. Nigel Warrior could use a second straight strong performance.
5. Kylin Hill is legit, with Brent Hubbs even deeming the junior the most underrated tailback in the SEC. Hill leads the conference in rushing with 596 yards — with 344 yards coming after contact, per PFF. He has 21 runs over 10 yards. Comparatively, Ty Chandler has 320 total rushing yards this season, and as a team, Tennessee has 15 runs over 10 yards.
Hill is a workhorse tailback, with 108 carries already this season. Shrader (46 for 312 yards and two scores) has just 10 fewer attempts than Chandler this season from the quarterback position.
Tackling has been a major emphasis this week. The Vols didn’t miss many against Georgia, but they got knocked back a bunch, and that’s concerning concerning they were coming off the bye when their legs were the freshest. Now, Tennessee is tasked with stopping the league’s second-best runner in yards after contact coming off an idle date. It’s a big test.
6. After Hill, Tennessee must identify where No. 5 is on the field at all times. The Bulldogs pretty much only throw it to one guy. Osirus Mitchell is MSU’s lone wideout with more than 9 catches this season. He’s big and physical (6-5, 215 pounds) and does a lot of damage after the catch. On the year, Mitchell has 19 receptions for 277 yards and four scores. It will be interesting to see who draws that assignment for UT: Bryce Thompson, Kenneth George or Alontae Taylor?
7. Mississippi State has some rangy corners and safeties — with four starters north of 6-foot-1. Cameron Dantzler (6-2, 185 pounds) is a legit NFL prospect, allowing just four completions on 12 targets with a pick and five pass breakups this year. But the rest of MSU’s secondary is suspect. Expect the Vols to target Brian Cole, who has already allowed 19 receptions this season, nickel corner Maurice Smitherman, six receptions allowed on eight targets, and safety CJ Morgan, who does have a pick but has also surrendered 16 catches through five games.
8. Pruitt has talked incessantly, and with good reason, on how important it is for Tennessee to take care of the football. Mississippi State is actually good at forcing turnovers, ranking No. 2 in the SEC.
In 12 games against Power 5 teams and one independent the last two seasons, Tennessee has a -7 turnover margin.
9. Despite starting just two games, sophomore cornerback Alontae Taylor has actually logged the most snaps at outside cornerback for the Vols this season (252). Still, Taylor’s play has been very up and down, and the staff continues to challenge his down-to-down confidence and consistency. In my favorite quote of the week, Pruitt outlined Taylor’s development thus far:
“He’s learning how to be a defensive back. Had an opportunity to play last year. Played a lot of football, and at times played really well. At times, he was probably a little lost, just being new to the position. He’s a guy that works extremely hard every single day. He’s gifted athletically. He has the want-to.
"But the one thing about that position is if you ever mess up there, everybody knows. Even your momma. It’s not very forgiving. You mess up at three-technique nobody knows. You mess up at inside backer, very few people know. If you mess up at corner, the whole world knows. That’s a position you have to got to have a short memory and go back and go to work. I think he’s tried to do that.”
10. In a bit of a surprise (at least to me), Tennessee is a 7-point underdog against MSU. The line opened at +6.5 before it was quickly bet up to a touchdown. It hasn’t moved since, neither has the over/under (53). Thus far, 65% of the tickets are on the Bulldogs.
Part of the reason Mississippi State is a significant road favorite despite its shoddy 3-2 record is because of the disparity between the two teams in most analytical power rankings. For instance, Sagarin has the Bulldogs has 26th nationally, while the Vols check in at 90. Now, ESPN’s FPI is still fairly high on the Vols, ranking them 50th overall, but the Bulldogs are in the same zip code at No. 27.
In Bill Connelly’s computer SP+ projections, he sees Tennessee covering the spread but losing 31-25.
Enjoy the game everybody.
