I empty out the notebook with 10 Things I Think I Think: Tennessee-Missouri
1. Tennessee has lost to Missouri by the same 50-17 margin in back-to-back seasons, but if there’s even 50 combined points on Saturday, that would surprise most folks.
The Vols are healthier up front, but they’re still an offense that ranks ahead of only Vandy in the SEC in yards per game. They’re 10th in yards per play (5.53), slightly ahead of Mizzou (5.42).
The Tigers are really scuffling offensively (27 total points during their four-game losing streak) but they’re stingy on defense and have playmakers on that side of the football.
Jeremy Pruitt continues to preach that his team has a lot to prove because they still haven’t played a complete game yet. I don’t think it happens tomorrow night, either. The Vols’ 60-minute performance will come next weekend in a revenge spanking over Vandy. They’ll be doing well if they simply walk out of Tigers Stadium with a W on Saturday night.
2. Jarrett Guarantano is expected to start at quarterback, and he’ll need to play well for the Vols to win. The redshirt junior has excelled as the sixth-man, but in a game where possessions could be limited, the choice to give him the reins from the start makes sense.
Guarantano has little experience against Missouri, though. He was hurt and didn’t play in 2017, and saw just nine snaps a year ago, getting sacked as many times (two) as pass attempts (0 of 2) before leaving the blowout loss.
The Tigers do boast one of the better secondaries in the SEC, so Guarantano must be on point tomorrow.
They rank No. 1 in pass defense and have a trio of long corners (all 6-1) to matchup against Tennessee’s big wideouts. Junior safety Tyree Gillespie is also one of the more underrated defensive backs in the SEC.
3. One area that’s been hammered home this weekend for the Vols is stopping the run. The Tigers have pulverized UT on the ground the last three seasons — 420 yards and four touchdowns in 2016, 433 yards and two scores in 2017 and 227 yards and three touchdowns last year.
Tennessee’s defense line has improved as much as any unit on the team, and Tracy Rocker’s group cannot have a letdown night. They were excellent against Mississippi State, South Carolina and UAB, and while Kentucky had some yards, they mostly shutdown Lynn Bowden after halftime.
Mizzou has a massive OL — second only to Georgia in the SEC East. All five starters weigh over 325 pounds and several lineman were preseason all-conference selections. But the group hasn’t lived up to its potential as purported big bullies. In a one-dimensional offense without the threat of Kelly Bryant’s legs, they’ve struggled to both pass protect or create movement in the run game — advantages for the Vols.
It’s a group that’s still capable though, so Darel Middleton, Aubrey Solomon and others can’t expect to just show up and watch the Tigers roll over. Don’t be surprised if freshman Elijah Simmons enters the rotation in short yardage situations again.
4. If Bryce Thompson (knee) is unable to play, that obviously hurts Tennessee’s defense, but Kenneth George has ascended into a reliable option outside, and is even playing more consistently than Alontae Taylor.
The Tigers don’t have the same playmakers on the perimeter in recent years, either. Jonathan Nance and Kam Scott are fine, but where Mizzou will challenge Tennessee’s defense is between the numbers.
Saturday is a big test for Shawn Shamburger, Nigel Warrior and the inside linebackers.
Almost inexplicably, the Tigers have not thrown a touchdown to a wideout in SEC play. Most targets, especially on third down, go to tight end Albert Okwuegbunam (26 catches and six touchdowns) or tailback Tyler Badie (team-high 30 catches and three scores).
The Vols have barely played against Okwuegbunam, who has been injured most of the the last two meetings. Warrior and Daniel Bituli have made themselves some money this fall, but Saturday night will be their toughest test in coverage since squaring off against UF’s Kyle Pitts, and that matchup did not go well for the Vols (four catches for 62 yards and a score).
5. In a game that’s expected to be cold and low-scoring, two important factors tomorrow night will be third downs and red zone efficiency.
The Tigers have the No. 4 third down defense in the league, allowing conversions just 31% of the time. The Vols rank 13th. Everyone knows about Tennessee’s inability to score touchdowns in the red zone (13th in the SEC), but Mizzou is only slightly better (tied for 10th). In fact, the Tigers’ overall red zone offense is worse than the Vols (13th overall) due to several missed kicks and goal line fumbles. One third down stop or touchdown conversion could be the difference tomorrow.
6. One of the reasons I picked the Vols to win a close game — outside of the fact Missouri is in a monthlong swoon and Tennessee is coming off an idle date following a three-game winning streak — is because Pruitt was so pleased with his team’s preparation this week. This is no a coach that dishes out compliments freely. The fact he thought the Vols had their best two days of practice in-season means something. College kids are always susceptible of laying an egg any Saturday (see: Georgia State), but I don’t see that happening this weekend.
7. Tennessee’s bowl picture has become fairly defined in the last few weeks: The Vols are positioned to either end up in Jacksonville or Nashville.
Tampa is an outside possibility, but Texas A&M, which played in the Gator Bowl last season, or Auburn appear to be likelier options for the Outback Bowl. Should the Vols go 6-6, Memphis could be an option, but Nashville will not bypass taking Tennessee.
Because the SEC could send multiple teams to the College Football Playoff and/or the New Year’s Six games, Tennessee is in prime position to play in Florida if it wins out. The SEC pairs teams with bowls after the Citrus Bowl takes its pick, and Jacksonville would be a great get for the Vols (and 40,000 fans in orange) after the team’s 0-2 start.
8. Favorite quote, Part I
Oftentimes, much of what Tennessee players say publicly are couched comments full of quotes straight from the PR whiteboard. But every now and then, someone will say something actually interesting. There was several such cases this week in fact. I’ll have a story on Nigel Warrior tomorrow discussing his dramatic turnaround this season. But Trey Smith and Daniel Bituli, on two totally different topics, also had some noteworthy quotes Wednesday.
Smith was asked about his practice schedule and dealing with his blood clot regimen that limits his contact throughout the week all season. While many players would struggle with such an on-and-off schedule, Smith said this week, “It’s really not been that tough, honestly. I don’t know why it isn’t. Beginning of the year, I think I was more fearful about everything going on, but probably after the first game, it really wasn’t that hard, because at the end of the day, I’m still just playing football. In my mind, I guess that’s how I approach it. As long as I know what to do mentally, my physical, it’s like mental repetition.
“I can’t explain it, it’s just like I just know what to do when I go out there a lot of times, and I can feel it, instead of just having to do it over and over.”
Few guys could do what Smith has done in terms of preparation, and then play well most Saturdays. Enjoy the last few games Vol Nation, because I expect them to be his last in a Tennessee uniform.
9. Favorite quote, Part Deux.
In previous media scrums, Bituli has spoken pointedly about his early life. His journey — from the Congo to a Cameroon refugee camp to Nashville, Tennessee — and the lessons of perseverance have shaped the young man he has become today. Bituli was asked about his childhood adversity and if those struggles have helped him deal with some tough times during his career at Tennessee.
The senior linebacker composed himself and then delivered one of the most honest answers we’ve heard all fall.
“Things like football, I mean, it’s definitely hard, but when it comes to the real world, facing things like this is nothing compared to that. … So, yeah, football’s hard, but things I went through growing up were definitely harder. That was a life-and-death situation. … I always want to keep on fighting. That’s something my parents have preached to me from a young age. No matter what situation you’re in, just keep fighting. You’re ultimately in control of your own destiny.”
That’s real life perspective stuff.
10. Tennessee opened as a 7-point underdog at Missouri, but the line was quickly bet down to the Vols +4 by midweek. It’s held firm there, with 71% of the bets on Tennessee.
The over-under is 45.5, with heavy consensus (74% per oddshark) on the under.
In a crazy, random stat, I saw that the Vols are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games on turf, which includes the blowout loss at Missouri in 2017.
Despite Tennessee’s three-game winning streak and Mizzou’s terrible last month, most statistical models still expect a close Tigers W.
SP+ predicts a 25-19 final, with Missouri holding a win probability of 62%. FPI is slightly less confident, but has the Tigers winning 59% of the time.
1. Tennessee has lost to Missouri by the same 50-17 margin in back-to-back seasons, but if there’s even 50 combined points on Saturday, that would surprise most folks.
The Vols are healthier up front, but they’re still an offense that ranks ahead of only Vandy in the SEC in yards per game. They’re 10th in yards per play (5.53), slightly ahead of Mizzou (5.42).
The Tigers are really scuffling offensively (27 total points during their four-game losing streak) but they’re stingy on defense and have playmakers on that side of the football.
Jeremy Pruitt continues to preach that his team has a lot to prove because they still haven’t played a complete game yet. I don’t think it happens tomorrow night, either. The Vols’ 60-minute performance will come next weekend in a revenge spanking over Vandy. They’ll be doing well if they simply walk out of Tigers Stadium with a W on Saturday night.
2. Jarrett Guarantano is expected to start at quarterback, and he’ll need to play well for the Vols to win. The redshirt junior has excelled as the sixth-man, but in a game where possessions could be limited, the choice to give him the reins from the start makes sense.
Guarantano has little experience against Missouri, though. He was hurt and didn’t play in 2017, and saw just nine snaps a year ago, getting sacked as many times (two) as pass attempts (0 of 2) before leaving the blowout loss.
The Tigers do boast one of the better secondaries in the SEC, so Guarantano must be on point tomorrow.
They rank No. 1 in pass defense and have a trio of long corners (all 6-1) to matchup against Tennessee’s big wideouts. Junior safety Tyree Gillespie is also one of the more underrated defensive backs in the SEC.
3. One area that’s been hammered home this weekend for the Vols is stopping the run. The Tigers have pulverized UT on the ground the last three seasons — 420 yards and four touchdowns in 2016, 433 yards and two scores in 2017 and 227 yards and three touchdowns last year.
Tennessee’s defense line has improved as much as any unit on the team, and Tracy Rocker’s group cannot have a letdown night. They were excellent against Mississippi State, South Carolina and UAB, and while Kentucky had some yards, they mostly shutdown Lynn Bowden after halftime.
Mizzou has a massive OL — second only to Georgia in the SEC East. All five starters weigh over 325 pounds and several lineman were preseason all-conference selections. But the group hasn’t lived up to its potential as purported big bullies. In a one-dimensional offense without the threat of Kelly Bryant’s legs, they’ve struggled to both pass protect or create movement in the run game — advantages for the Vols.
It’s a group that’s still capable though, so Darel Middleton, Aubrey Solomon and others can’t expect to just show up and watch the Tigers roll over. Don’t be surprised if freshman Elijah Simmons enters the rotation in short yardage situations again.
4. If Bryce Thompson (knee) is unable to play, that obviously hurts Tennessee’s defense, but Kenneth George has ascended into a reliable option outside, and is even playing more consistently than Alontae Taylor.
The Tigers don’t have the same playmakers on the perimeter in recent years, either. Jonathan Nance and Kam Scott are fine, but where Mizzou will challenge Tennessee’s defense is between the numbers.
Saturday is a big test for Shawn Shamburger, Nigel Warrior and the inside linebackers.
Almost inexplicably, the Tigers have not thrown a touchdown to a wideout in SEC play. Most targets, especially on third down, go to tight end Albert Okwuegbunam (26 catches and six touchdowns) or tailback Tyler Badie (team-high 30 catches and three scores).
The Vols have barely played against Okwuegbunam, who has been injured most of the the last two meetings. Warrior and Daniel Bituli have made themselves some money this fall, but Saturday night will be their toughest test in coverage since squaring off against UF’s Kyle Pitts, and that matchup did not go well for the Vols (four catches for 62 yards and a score).
5. In a game that’s expected to be cold and low-scoring, two important factors tomorrow night will be third downs and red zone efficiency.
The Tigers have the No. 4 third down defense in the league, allowing conversions just 31% of the time. The Vols rank 13th. Everyone knows about Tennessee’s inability to score touchdowns in the red zone (13th in the SEC), but Mizzou is only slightly better (tied for 10th). In fact, the Tigers’ overall red zone offense is worse than the Vols (13th overall) due to several missed kicks and goal line fumbles. One third down stop or touchdown conversion could be the difference tomorrow.
6. One of the reasons I picked the Vols to win a close game — outside of the fact Missouri is in a monthlong swoon and Tennessee is coming off an idle date following a three-game winning streak — is because Pruitt was so pleased with his team’s preparation this week. This is no a coach that dishes out compliments freely. The fact he thought the Vols had their best two days of practice in-season means something. College kids are always susceptible of laying an egg any Saturday (see: Georgia State), but I don’t see that happening this weekend.
7. Tennessee’s bowl picture has become fairly defined in the last few weeks: The Vols are positioned to either end up in Jacksonville or Nashville.
Tampa is an outside possibility, but Texas A&M, which played in the Gator Bowl last season, or Auburn appear to be likelier options for the Outback Bowl. Should the Vols go 6-6, Memphis could be an option, but Nashville will not bypass taking Tennessee.
Because the SEC could send multiple teams to the College Football Playoff and/or the New Year’s Six games, Tennessee is in prime position to play in Florida if it wins out. The SEC pairs teams with bowls after the Citrus Bowl takes its pick, and Jacksonville would be a great get for the Vols (and 40,000 fans in orange) after the team’s 0-2 start.
8. Favorite quote, Part I
Oftentimes, much of what Tennessee players say publicly are couched comments full of quotes straight from the PR whiteboard. But every now and then, someone will say something actually interesting. There was several such cases this week in fact. I’ll have a story on Nigel Warrior tomorrow discussing his dramatic turnaround this season. But Trey Smith and Daniel Bituli, on two totally different topics, also had some noteworthy quotes Wednesday.
Smith was asked about his practice schedule and dealing with his blood clot regimen that limits his contact throughout the week all season. While many players would struggle with such an on-and-off schedule, Smith said this week, “It’s really not been that tough, honestly. I don’t know why it isn’t. Beginning of the year, I think I was more fearful about everything going on, but probably after the first game, it really wasn’t that hard, because at the end of the day, I’m still just playing football. In my mind, I guess that’s how I approach it. As long as I know what to do mentally, my physical, it’s like mental repetition.
“I can’t explain it, it’s just like I just know what to do when I go out there a lot of times, and I can feel it, instead of just having to do it over and over.”
Few guys could do what Smith has done in terms of preparation, and then play well most Saturdays. Enjoy the last few games Vol Nation, because I expect them to be his last in a Tennessee uniform.
9. Favorite quote, Part Deux.
In previous media scrums, Bituli has spoken pointedly about his early life. His journey — from the Congo to a Cameroon refugee camp to Nashville, Tennessee — and the lessons of perseverance have shaped the young man he has become today. Bituli was asked about his childhood adversity and if those struggles have helped him deal with some tough times during his career at Tennessee.
The senior linebacker composed himself and then delivered one of the most honest answers we’ve heard all fall.
“Things like football, I mean, it’s definitely hard, but when it comes to the real world, facing things like this is nothing compared to that. … So, yeah, football’s hard, but things I went through growing up were definitely harder. That was a life-and-death situation. … I always want to keep on fighting. That’s something my parents have preached to me from a young age. No matter what situation you’re in, just keep fighting. You’re ultimately in control of your own destiny.”
That’s real life perspective stuff.
10. Tennessee opened as a 7-point underdog at Missouri, but the line was quickly bet down to the Vols +4 by midweek. It’s held firm there, with 71% of the bets on Tennessee.
The over-under is 45.5, with heavy consensus (74% per oddshark) on the under.
In a crazy, random stat, I saw that the Vols are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games on turf, which includes the blowout loss at Missouri in 2017.
Despite Tennessee’s three-game winning streak and Mizzou’s terrible last month, most statistical models still expect a close Tigers W.
SP+ predicts a 25-19 final, with Missouri holding a win probability of 62%. FPI is slightly less confident, but has the Tigers winning 59% of the time.
