Don't think it will happen, but it would be total Vol meltdown if it went down this way:
Arkansas Razorbacks(+7) at Tennessee Volunteers
A lot is being made of the similarities in this matchup. Both teams entered the season with ample preseason hype, the most established quarterbacks in the league save Dak Prescott, plus new playcallers who each coordinated Big Ten offenses before underwhelming as head coach of Central Michigan. Both teams are now tasked with bouncing back from difficult losses.
The differences matter. Tennessee's loss was far more painful, mainly in that it was somewhat program-defining. How can Butch Jones claim sufficient progress along the path to SEC East supremacy when in its 29th game his program still cannot beat Florida, a team just four games into its own rebuilding effort?
Arkansas' demise was more gradual. The team was underprepared against Toledo but was out of the tank and ready to go against Texas Tech, a loss that made it accept what Tennessee is just now having to swallow -- that it just wasn't good enough. Bret Bielema has already been through the ordeal of having preseason hopes crash and the challenge of addressing negativity that meant no one was having fun anymore. For Tennessee, the "Not Fun Anymore" time is just starting.
The main advantage for Arkansas, though, is that the Razorbacks' program culture is better equipped to withstand and bounce back from disappointment like this. There are a lot of bells and whistles to what Butch Jones has built at Tennessee. Some are nicely done homages to Tennessee history (which Jones has certainly embraced) and some feel a little contrived. Some were very successful (the Vol for Life program), some have yet to achieve total buy-in ("63 effort") and some are cultural borrows from a time and place Tennessee fans are uninterested in imitating ("Team 119").
Jones' approach through it all can come across as dogmatic, even a little robotic. The players, too, flash little personality in media sessions, mostly parroting their coach's orthodoxy. The underlying program values are frequently expressed by rote, as manifesto or mission statement. Bielema's freewheeling, keep-it-real manner is better medicine. Both teams entered the season with good player leadership and both claim to have had good weeks of practice ahead of this game. That rings more true at Arkansas, where the message is more about belief in each other than a canon of maxims.
The Hogs are a tough team for which to prep, and Tennessee hasn't played them yet. Arkansas will bring the physicality while presenting lots of difficult formations and personnel groupings. That includes a lot of different deployments of the tight end, something Tennessee did not handle well at Florida. It's hard to hold up defensively against the Razorbacks' constant downhill bruising if your hearts are not fully in it. If Arkansas shows up angry and Tennessee is still on the mat, there's no limit to how ugly this could get.
ATS pick: Arkansas
Score: Arkansas 42, Tennessee 20
Georgia Bulldogs (-2) versus Alabama Crimson Tide
Adaptability is a trait of all coaches with longevity, and during the past few years Mark Richt has proved he's still willing to search for new answers. Richt brought home SEC titles in 2002 and 2005, and East Division crowns in 2011 and 2012. It was the narrow 2012 SEC championship game loss to Alabama that prevented Richt from realizing his best chance at a national championship, a presumed beating of disadvantaged Notre Dame in Miami. Some of Richt's searching the past two years has led him in an Alabama-flavored direction. Second-year defensive coordinator Jeremy Pruitt is a Nick Saban disciple, and new strength and conditioning coach Mark Hocke was Scott Cochran's No. 2 in the Alabama weight room the past six years.
Alabama may still carry the league's standard and represent the "hump" to be cleared for programs hoping to earn SEC titles and such, but the 2015 edition is ripe for the picking. Bama has no SEC-caliber answer at quarterback and is not getting the performance it got last year from playcaller Lane Kiffin. This offense has regressed from the one that put 500 yards on Ole Miss, and Alabama will need to win four-quarter defensive struggles with good teams this year, as it will not be able to score enough to gain control.
The stakes are much higher for Georgia than Alabama. Georgia gets a crippled Alabama between the hedges as a favorite. Its coach has spent two years remaking the program in preparation for this exact moment, and its grad transfer quarterback is working out and Alabama's isn't. Georgia has looked every ounce the contender so far, and what's rolling into Athens is not Nick Saban's machine at its finest, at the peak of its powers. If Mark Richt can't win this one, it will be very difficult for anyone in the organization or fan base to keep the faith, to enter the next "big game" actually expecting to win instead of just hoping to win. Georgia has every advantage Saturday. There are no more excuses. No more getting outplayed. No more "they were just better than us today." Because this time they're not. Losing this one is called choking. If Mark Richt can't win this game, there may not be much more Mark Richt. We'll say he gets it done and the name on everyone's lips afterward is Jeremy Pruitt, whose departure from Tuscaloosa will, at long last, be linked to the decline of the Alabama secondary.
ATS pick: Georgia
Score: Georgia 20, Alabama 6
UNLV Rebels (+6.5) at Nevada Wolf Pack
We love what Tony Sanchez is doing at UNLV so far and the way the Rebels are running the ball. We're not so bullish on Brian Polian's Nevada program. Over time, Polian and his passive approach to this rivalry will not get the money as often as the fiery Sanchez. This week, the travel-weary Pack are coming off a pair of tough road dates at Texas A&M and Buffalo.
ATS pick: UNLV
Score: UNLV 31, Nevada 28
Iowa Hawkeyes (+6.5) at Wisconsin Badgers
Both sides have some injuries on defense, and there are a handful of key Iowa players whose status might not be known until close to game time. Still, we'll probably take points with what looks like the Big Ten West's most complete team. The Hawkeyes are not the most talented group Kirk Ferentz has fielded, but the revamped staff is showing better chemistry, the team is closer, no entire position groups are glaring weaknesses and the team is getting improved performance from two key spots -- playcaller and quarterback. Greg Davis is delivering this year, and the coaches' choice of C.J. Beathard over Jake Rudock has paid off big, as Beathard has become a primary team leader and leads the Big Ten in quarterback rating. Last year, Iowa gained 400 yards per game for the first time since 2005, and this offense can be even better.
So far, Wisconsin has replaced shelved tailback Corey Clement pretty well, using a combination of elusive junior Dare Ogunbowale and physical freshman Taiwan Deal. The offensive line, though, is not up to program standards in either talent or experience, and it was banged up in camp and the early part of the season. We see the Badgers as pretty good but not a Top 25 team and are generally looking to fade a regime that will not approach the success of the last one. We expect Paul Chryst to gradually disappoint and for the Badgers to lose ace defensive coordinator Dave Aranda within a couple of years. Division titles will be hard to come by.
ATS pick: Iowa
Score: Iowa 20, Wisconsin 17
Arkansas Razorbacks(+7) at Tennessee Volunteers
A lot is being made of the similarities in this matchup. Both teams entered the season with ample preseason hype, the most established quarterbacks in the league save Dak Prescott, plus new playcallers who each coordinated Big Ten offenses before underwhelming as head coach of Central Michigan. Both teams are now tasked with bouncing back from difficult losses.
The differences matter. Tennessee's loss was far more painful, mainly in that it was somewhat program-defining. How can Butch Jones claim sufficient progress along the path to SEC East supremacy when in its 29th game his program still cannot beat Florida, a team just four games into its own rebuilding effort?
Arkansas' demise was more gradual. The team was underprepared against Toledo but was out of the tank and ready to go against Texas Tech, a loss that made it accept what Tennessee is just now having to swallow -- that it just wasn't good enough. Bret Bielema has already been through the ordeal of having preseason hopes crash and the challenge of addressing negativity that meant no one was having fun anymore. For Tennessee, the "Not Fun Anymore" time is just starting.
The main advantage for Arkansas, though, is that the Razorbacks' program culture is better equipped to withstand and bounce back from disappointment like this. There are a lot of bells and whistles to what Butch Jones has built at Tennessee. Some are nicely done homages to Tennessee history (which Jones has certainly embraced) and some feel a little contrived. Some were very successful (the Vol for Life program), some have yet to achieve total buy-in ("63 effort") and some are cultural borrows from a time and place Tennessee fans are uninterested in imitating ("Team 119").
Jones' approach through it all can come across as dogmatic, even a little robotic. The players, too, flash little personality in media sessions, mostly parroting their coach's orthodoxy. The underlying program values are frequently expressed by rote, as manifesto or mission statement. Bielema's freewheeling, keep-it-real manner is better medicine. Both teams entered the season with good player leadership and both claim to have had good weeks of practice ahead of this game. That rings more true at Arkansas, where the message is more about belief in each other than a canon of maxims.
The Hogs are a tough team for which to prep, and Tennessee hasn't played them yet. Arkansas will bring the physicality while presenting lots of difficult formations and personnel groupings. That includes a lot of different deployments of the tight end, something Tennessee did not handle well at Florida. It's hard to hold up defensively against the Razorbacks' constant downhill bruising if your hearts are not fully in it. If Arkansas shows up angry and Tennessee is still on the mat, there's no limit to how ugly this could get.
ATS pick: Arkansas
Score: Arkansas 42, Tennessee 20
Georgia Bulldogs (-2) versus Alabama Crimson Tide
Adaptability is a trait of all coaches with longevity, and during the past few years Mark Richt has proved he's still willing to search for new answers. Richt brought home SEC titles in 2002 and 2005, and East Division crowns in 2011 and 2012. It was the narrow 2012 SEC championship game loss to Alabama that prevented Richt from realizing his best chance at a national championship, a presumed beating of disadvantaged Notre Dame in Miami. Some of Richt's searching the past two years has led him in an Alabama-flavored direction. Second-year defensive coordinator Jeremy Pruitt is a Nick Saban disciple, and new strength and conditioning coach Mark Hocke was Scott Cochran's No. 2 in the Alabama weight room the past six years.
Alabama may still carry the league's standard and represent the "hump" to be cleared for programs hoping to earn SEC titles and such, but the 2015 edition is ripe for the picking. Bama has no SEC-caliber answer at quarterback and is not getting the performance it got last year from playcaller Lane Kiffin. This offense has regressed from the one that put 500 yards on Ole Miss, and Alabama will need to win four-quarter defensive struggles with good teams this year, as it will not be able to score enough to gain control.
The stakes are much higher for Georgia than Alabama. Georgia gets a crippled Alabama between the hedges as a favorite. Its coach has spent two years remaking the program in preparation for this exact moment, and its grad transfer quarterback is working out and Alabama's isn't. Georgia has looked every ounce the contender so far, and what's rolling into Athens is not Nick Saban's machine at its finest, at the peak of its powers. If Mark Richt can't win this one, it will be very difficult for anyone in the organization or fan base to keep the faith, to enter the next "big game" actually expecting to win instead of just hoping to win. Georgia has every advantage Saturday. There are no more excuses. No more getting outplayed. No more "they were just better than us today." Because this time they're not. Losing this one is called choking. If Mark Richt can't win this game, there may not be much more Mark Richt. We'll say he gets it done and the name on everyone's lips afterward is Jeremy Pruitt, whose departure from Tuscaloosa will, at long last, be linked to the decline of the Alabama secondary.
ATS pick: Georgia
Score: Georgia 20, Alabama 6
UNLV Rebels (+6.5) at Nevada Wolf Pack
We love what Tony Sanchez is doing at UNLV so far and the way the Rebels are running the ball. We're not so bullish on Brian Polian's Nevada program. Over time, Polian and his passive approach to this rivalry will not get the money as often as the fiery Sanchez. This week, the travel-weary Pack are coming off a pair of tough road dates at Texas A&M and Buffalo.
ATS pick: UNLV
Score: UNLV 31, Nevada 28
Iowa Hawkeyes (+6.5) at Wisconsin Badgers
Both sides have some injuries on defense, and there are a handful of key Iowa players whose status might not be known until close to game time. Still, we'll probably take points with what looks like the Big Ten West's most complete team. The Hawkeyes are not the most talented group Kirk Ferentz has fielded, but the revamped staff is showing better chemistry, the team is closer, no entire position groups are glaring weaknesses and the team is getting improved performance from two key spots -- playcaller and quarterback. Greg Davis is delivering this year, and the coaches' choice of C.J. Beathard over Jake Rudock has paid off big, as Beathard has become a primary team leader and leads the Big Ten in quarterback rating. Last year, Iowa gained 400 yards per game for the first time since 2005, and this offense can be even better.
So far, Wisconsin has replaced shelved tailback Corey Clement pretty well, using a combination of elusive junior Dare Ogunbowale and physical freshman Taiwan Deal. The offensive line, though, is not up to program standards in either talent or experience, and it was banged up in camp and the early part of the season. We see the Badgers as pretty good but not a Top 25 team and are generally looking to fade a regime that will not approach the success of the last one. We expect Paul Chryst to gradually disappoint and for the Badgers to lose ace defensive coordinator Dave Aranda within a couple of years. Division titles will be hard to come by.
ATS pick: Iowa
Score: Iowa 20, Wisconsin 17
