Using ESPN's Football Power Index -- which is broken down into predicted offense, defense and special-teams components -- we can project the top offenses heading into the season.
It's important to note that FPI is not projecting yards or points; it's projecting a team's expected points added (EPA) per game. Unlike yards, which treat all situations equally, the teams with the highest offensive EPA per game will be efficient units that convert yards to points, avoid turnovers and control field position. The number associated with EPA per game below refers to the points per game an offense is expected to contribute against an average defense to the team's net scoring margin, with an average offense expected to contribute zero net points.
Let's run through the list.
1. Florida State Seminoles
Predicted offensive EPA per game: plus-15.6
Returning starters: 11 (including QB)
2015 offensive efficiency rank: 22nd
Florida State returns all 11 offensive starters to a unit that has ranked in the top 25 in efficiency each of the last four years. Dalvin Cook is the most explosive running back in the nation; he led the FBS with 22 rushes of 20-plus yards in 2015. The receiving corps is deep, with second-team All-ACC selections Travis Rudolph and Kermit Whitfield returning. Adding to their depth, the Seminoles have signed a top-three recruiting class in each of the last three seasons. The only outstanding question is whether QB Sean Maguire, who sat out the spring recovering from a broken ankle, can hold off redshirt freshman Deondre Francois for the starting spot and perform at a level needed for the Seminoles to return to the College Football Playoff.
2. Clemson Tigers
Predicted offensive EPA per game: plus-14.4
Returning starters: Eight (including QB)
2015 offensive efficiency rank: Ninth
With consensus All-American QB Deshaun Watson back for his junior year, the Tigers are poised for another productive offensive campaign. Watson, the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy, had the second-highest Total QBR in the FBS last season (87.8) and was a model of consistency, with a QBR above 70 in every game. With three All-ACC selections returning -- RB Wayne Gallman, WR Artavis Scott and TE Jordan Leggett -- Watson will have plenty of help at the skill positions. Wide receiver Mike Williams, who missed most of last season with a neck injury, also returns and could take Clemson's offense to new heights because of his ability to stretch the field (he led the ACC in 20-yard receptions in 2014). If Clemson can fill the holes left on its offensive line, its 2016 offense may be even more dominant than last season's.
3. Oklahoma Sooners
Predicted offensive EPA per game: plus-12.8
Returning starters: Seven (including QB)
2015 offensive efficiency rank: 12th
After its loss to Texas on Oct. 10 last season, Oklahoma was the third-most efficient offense in the nation. During that time, QB Baker Mayfield ranked sixth in Total QBR and the Sooners led the nation in yards per rush (excluding sacks). With running backs Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon, who rushed for a combined 2,102 yards and 23 touchdowns, returning this season, the Sooners should again have one of the most dynamic rushing attacks in the FBS. Oklahoma has to replace the heart and soul of its offense, wide receiver Sterling Shepard, along with a few key offensive linemen, but the Sooners have a deep bench to fill those spots. Look for wide receivers Dede Westbrook and Geno Lewis, a transfer from Penn State, to emerge as Oklahoma looks to return to the College Football Playoff.
4. Oklahoma State Cowboys
Predicted offensive EPA per game: plus-12.7
Returning starters: 10 (including QB)
2015 offensive efficiency rank: 21st
Oklahoma State lost its final three games of 2015, so it's easy to forget that the Cowboys began the year 10-0 and were in the thick of the College Football Playoff discussion. They return 10 starters, including QB Mason Rudolph, to an offense that ranked fourth in the Big 12 in efficiency. James Washington, who averaged 20.5 yards per reception in 2015, again should be one of the most explosive receivers in the Big 12, and Marcell Ateman is expected to be a strong No. 2 option. Additionally, the Pokes return all five starting offensive linemen to a unit that ranked third in the Big 12 in pressure percentage allowed.
It's important to note that FPI is not projecting yards or points; it's projecting a team's expected points added (EPA) per game. Unlike yards, which treat all situations equally, the teams with the highest offensive EPA per game will be efficient units that convert yards to points, avoid turnovers and control field position. The number associated with EPA per game below refers to the points per game an offense is expected to contribute against an average defense to the team's net scoring margin, with an average offense expected to contribute zero net points.
Let's run through the list.
1. Florida State Seminoles
Predicted offensive EPA per game: plus-15.6
Returning starters: 11 (including QB)
2015 offensive efficiency rank: 22nd
Florida State returns all 11 offensive starters to a unit that has ranked in the top 25 in efficiency each of the last four years. Dalvin Cook is the most explosive running back in the nation; he led the FBS with 22 rushes of 20-plus yards in 2015. The receiving corps is deep, with second-team All-ACC selections Travis Rudolph and Kermit Whitfield returning. Adding to their depth, the Seminoles have signed a top-three recruiting class in each of the last three seasons. The only outstanding question is whether QB Sean Maguire, who sat out the spring recovering from a broken ankle, can hold off redshirt freshman Deondre Francois for the starting spot and perform at a level needed for the Seminoles to return to the College Football Playoff.
2. Clemson Tigers
Predicted offensive EPA per game: plus-14.4
Returning starters: Eight (including QB)
2015 offensive efficiency rank: Ninth
With consensus All-American QB Deshaun Watson back for his junior year, the Tigers are poised for another productive offensive campaign. Watson, the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy, had the second-highest Total QBR in the FBS last season (87.8) and was a model of consistency, with a QBR above 70 in every game. With three All-ACC selections returning -- RB Wayne Gallman, WR Artavis Scott and TE Jordan Leggett -- Watson will have plenty of help at the skill positions. Wide receiver Mike Williams, who missed most of last season with a neck injury, also returns and could take Clemson's offense to new heights because of his ability to stretch the field (he led the ACC in 20-yard receptions in 2014). If Clemson can fill the holes left on its offensive line, its 2016 offense may be even more dominant than last season's.
3. Oklahoma Sooners
Predicted offensive EPA per game: plus-12.8
Returning starters: Seven (including QB)
2015 offensive efficiency rank: 12th
After its loss to Texas on Oct. 10 last season, Oklahoma was the third-most efficient offense in the nation. During that time, QB Baker Mayfield ranked sixth in Total QBR and the Sooners led the nation in yards per rush (excluding sacks). With running backs Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon, who rushed for a combined 2,102 yards and 23 touchdowns, returning this season, the Sooners should again have one of the most dynamic rushing attacks in the FBS. Oklahoma has to replace the heart and soul of its offense, wide receiver Sterling Shepard, along with a few key offensive linemen, but the Sooners have a deep bench to fill those spots. Look for wide receivers Dede Westbrook and Geno Lewis, a transfer from Penn State, to emerge as Oklahoma looks to return to the College Football Playoff.
4. Oklahoma State Cowboys
Predicted offensive EPA per game: plus-12.7
Returning starters: 10 (including QB)
2015 offensive efficiency rank: 21st
Oklahoma State lost its final three games of 2015, so it's easy to forget that the Cowboys began the year 10-0 and were in the thick of the College Football Playoff discussion. They return 10 starters, including QB Mason Rudolph, to an offense that ranked fourth in the Big 12 in efficiency. James Washington, who averaged 20.5 yards per reception in 2015, again should be one of the most explosive receivers in the Big 12, and Marcell Ateman is expected to be a strong No. 2 option. Additionally, the Pokes return all five starting offensive linemen to a unit that ranked third in the Big 12 in pressure percentage allowed.
