UF RUN OFFENSE VS. UT RUN DEFENSE
If ever a game was going to be determined along the line of scrimmage, then this is at the head of the list. Simply put, whichever team is able to run the ball better (and that doesn’t necessarily mean more yards, it means being more effective for 60 minutes) will likely come out on top. It’s been a bit of a mixed bag here for the Gators, who have put up nice numbers on the ground against overmatched defenses without the offensive line truly dominating the action. But Florida’s four-man tailback group has been quite efficient, with all four running efficiently and as a group, averaging 5.3 yards a pop. The hunch here is that this will be sophomore Jordan Cronkrite’s breakout game. He’s had the fewest attempts of the top four, but his straight-ahead ability makes him a good bet against the Vols. Of course, it all comes down to Florida’s offensive line, again missing starting guard Tyler Jordan. Tennessee’s rushing defense has been decent, not great, but surely its front seven is the best Florida will have faced to date.
SLIGHT EDGE: FLORIDA
UF PASS OFFENSE VS. UT PASS DEFENSE
Without Luke Del Rio (probably), without knowing the health status of star receiver Antonio Callaway, who will play but may not be 100 percent, and without knowing what head coach Jim McElwain’s veiled hints and closed practices might suggest, this is really a big “who knows?” Florida definitely has a minor advantage due to the absence of injured Tennessee cornerback Cam Sutton, the Vols’ best in the back end, but with Austin Appleby at the controls, again who knows? The Gators have been strong in pass protection, yielding just one sack although Del Rio was hit a bunch last week, and the Vols have only three sacks so far. The idea won’t be for Appleby to have to win the game himself, but to make enough plays to keep the chains moving and not make any critical errors, which was his failing at Purdue. If the Gators can establish the run, then the paly-action piece will open up, but if the run game is stalled, and more is placed on Appleby’s plate, that could be problematic.
EDGE: EVEN
UT RUN OFFENSE VS. UF RUN DEFENSE
Without question the most significant matchup of the afternoon, strength on strength as the Vols will look to duplicate last season’s success on the ground in this matchup, while the Gators aim to continue their brawny play up front. In bruising tailback Jalen Hurd, and dangerous quarterback Joshua Dobbs, the Vols are capable to controlling things on the ground, as their 254 yards rushing in last season’s contest can attest. It was a terrible tackling exhibition from Florida and while no one expects a repeat performance, Dobbs especially warrants full attention. But Tennessee’s offensive line has been hampered by spotty play, which Florida could capitalize on with its deep and talented defensive line. It’s been quiet stat-wise for the Gators’ main guys up front, but expect that to change with tackles Caleb Brantley and Cece Jefferson and end Bryan Cox Jr., all getting heavily involved. The preliminaries are over – it’s time to see if this defense can dominate an offense like Tennessee’s.
EDGE: FLORIDA
UT PASS OFFENSE VS. UF PASS DEFENSE
If the Gators can summon a pass defense to rival its rhetoric, then this should be no contest. Florida has been quite yappy about its defensive prowess for quite some time and now it’s time to back up those words. The Gators have been able to fashion terrific pressure up front, as 16 sacks in three games validate. And the secondary, headed by star cornerbacks Teez Tabor and Quincy Wilson and safety Marcus Maye, has been the beneficiary of the harried quarterbacks. But Dobbs is different and can escape pressure, so the onus will be on the defensive backs to hold their coverage against talented receivers. Dobbs is hardly the most accurate passer, so controlling the running attack would put everything in the hands of the Gator defense. The Gators are the only team in the SEC not to allow a touchdown in the air, and if we’re still saying that on Saturday night, then all is well. Plus it would behoove the secondary to cut down on the pass interference infractions, and the defense as a whole to quit committing penalties.
EDGE: FLORIDA
SPECIAL TEAMS
Although we don’t know how kicker Eddy Pineiro will react to his first collegiate game outside The Swamp, he presents a formidable weapon for the Gators, not just for the possibility of nailing some long field goals, but also for the added benefit of negating Tennessee’s potent return game. Pineiro’s ability to put the ball through the endzone on kickoffs (14 touchbacks in 20 attempts) can seriously neutralize elusive Evan Berry and Alvin Kamara and the same goes for punter Johnny Townsend, leading the SEC with a 50.3-yard average. Similarly, if Callaway is able to assume his return man duties, that is another plus for Florida here, because Brandon Powell is extremely ordinary as a returner. The Vols’ return game has been nothing special (last in the SEC in punt returns) and their kickers have been somewhat ordinary. This could be an area where Florida has a decided advantage, but there are still a few unknowns.
SLIGHT EDGE: FLORIDA
INTANGIBLES
Would seemingly tilt in Florida’s direction, given the recent history of this series, but does it really matter that Urban Meyer and Will Muschamp never lost to Tennessee, once the game kicks off? Tennessee should get a bounce from playing at home, but only if it has success – if it struggles, it could have a negative effect. History vs. home field, do they negate each other?
EDGE: EVEN
OVERVIEW
The past doesn’t matter, the point spread doesn’t matter, all the talk doesn’t matter, just going to come down to which team makes the fewest mistakes and is able to turn in some big plays, like it does in all big games. From this viewpoint, rankings aside, Florida appears to be a more complete team and if the defense shows up like it has so far, advantage visitors.
SLIGHT EDGE: FLORIDA
KEYS TO VICTORY
RUN THE BALL
Florida is not good enough up front to simply line up and pound the ball at Tennessee, but this doesn’t necessarily have to be a balanced offensive effort. An effective ground attack can take some of the heat off Appleby, who has played in a number of big stadiums against major opponents in the Big Ten, but has rarely come out on the winning side. If he lets the others around him do the heavy lifting, Florida will be in good shape.
BACK UP THE BOASTS
The Gators’ defense has been reminding all who’ll listen about how strong they have been, but they’ve also played nobody (Kentucky doesn’t count, the Wildcats react like kittens at the sight of the Gators). If indeed Florida has the BDN and is indeed DBU, it’s time to deliver and make those words mean something.
PLAY SMART
Emotions will be running high for both sides, especially early in the contest. It will be imperative for Florida to keep its cool while playing with the proper amount of energy. The Gators have been by far the most penalized team in the SEC, getting penalized 44 yards per game more than their opponents. In a close game, that could matter. Keep the personal fouls and foolish penalties under control, and the Gators’ chances for victory rise dramatically.
MARTY’S PREDICTION: FLORIDA 19, Tennessee 17
If ever a game was going to be determined along the line of scrimmage, then this is at the head of the list. Simply put, whichever team is able to run the ball better (and that doesn’t necessarily mean more yards, it means being more effective for 60 minutes) will likely come out on top. It’s been a bit of a mixed bag here for the Gators, who have put up nice numbers on the ground against overmatched defenses without the offensive line truly dominating the action. But Florida’s four-man tailback group has been quite efficient, with all four running efficiently and as a group, averaging 5.3 yards a pop. The hunch here is that this will be sophomore Jordan Cronkrite’s breakout game. He’s had the fewest attempts of the top four, but his straight-ahead ability makes him a good bet against the Vols. Of course, it all comes down to Florida’s offensive line, again missing starting guard Tyler Jordan. Tennessee’s rushing defense has been decent, not great, but surely its front seven is the best Florida will have faced to date.
SLIGHT EDGE: FLORIDA
UF PASS OFFENSE VS. UT PASS DEFENSE
Without Luke Del Rio (probably), without knowing the health status of star receiver Antonio Callaway, who will play but may not be 100 percent, and without knowing what head coach Jim McElwain’s veiled hints and closed practices might suggest, this is really a big “who knows?” Florida definitely has a minor advantage due to the absence of injured Tennessee cornerback Cam Sutton, the Vols’ best in the back end, but with Austin Appleby at the controls, again who knows? The Gators have been strong in pass protection, yielding just one sack although Del Rio was hit a bunch last week, and the Vols have only three sacks so far. The idea won’t be for Appleby to have to win the game himself, but to make enough plays to keep the chains moving and not make any critical errors, which was his failing at Purdue. If the Gators can establish the run, then the paly-action piece will open up, but if the run game is stalled, and more is placed on Appleby’s plate, that could be problematic.
EDGE: EVEN
UT RUN OFFENSE VS. UF RUN DEFENSE
Without question the most significant matchup of the afternoon, strength on strength as the Vols will look to duplicate last season’s success on the ground in this matchup, while the Gators aim to continue their brawny play up front. In bruising tailback Jalen Hurd, and dangerous quarterback Joshua Dobbs, the Vols are capable to controlling things on the ground, as their 254 yards rushing in last season’s contest can attest. It was a terrible tackling exhibition from Florida and while no one expects a repeat performance, Dobbs especially warrants full attention. But Tennessee’s offensive line has been hampered by spotty play, which Florida could capitalize on with its deep and talented defensive line. It’s been quiet stat-wise for the Gators’ main guys up front, but expect that to change with tackles Caleb Brantley and Cece Jefferson and end Bryan Cox Jr., all getting heavily involved. The preliminaries are over – it’s time to see if this defense can dominate an offense like Tennessee’s.
EDGE: FLORIDA
UT PASS OFFENSE VS. UF PASS DEFENSE
If the Gators can summon a pass defense to rival its rhetoric, then this should be no contest. Florida has been quite yappy about its defensive prowess for quite some time and now it’s time to back up those words. The Gators have been able to fashion terrific pressure up front, as 16 sacks in three games validate. And the secondary, headed by star cornerbacks Teez Tabor and Quincy Wilson and safety Marcus Maye, has been the beneficiary of the harried quarterbacks. But Dobbs is different and can escape pressure, so the onus will be on the defensive backs to hold their coverage against talented receivers. Dobbs is hardly the most accurate passer, so controlling the running attack would put everything in the hands of the Gator defense. The Gators are the only team in the SEC not to allow a touchdown in the air, and if we’re still saying that on Saturday night, then all is well. Plus it would behoove the secondary to cut down on the pass interference infractions, and the defense as a whole to quit committing penalties.
EDGE: FLORIDA
SPECIAL TEAMS
Although we don’t know how kicker Eddy Pineiro will react to his first collegiate game outside The Swamp, he presents a formidable weapon for the Gators, not just for the possibility of nailing some long field goals, but also for the added benefit of negating Tennessee’s potent return game. Pineiro’s ability to put the ball through the endzone on kickoffs (14 touchbacks in 20 attempts) can seriously neutralize elusive Evan Berry and Alvin Kamara and the same goes for punter Johnny Townsend, leading the SEC with a 50.3-yard average. Similarly, if Callaway is able to assume his return man duties, that is another plus for Florida here, because Brandon Powell is extremely ordinary as a returner. The Vols’ return game has been nothing special (last in the SEC in punt returns) and their kickers have been somewhat ordinary. This could be an area where Florida has a decided advantage, but there are still a few unknowns.
SLIGHT EDGE: FLORIDA
INTANGIBLES
Would seemingly tilt in Florida’s direction, given the recent history of this series, but does it really matter that Urban Meyer and Will Muschamp never lost to Tennessee, once the game kicks off? Tennessee should get a bounce from playing at home, but only if it has success – if it struggles, it could have a negative effect. History vs. home field, do they negate each other?
EDGE: EVEN
OVERVIEW
The past doesn’t matter, the point spread doesn’t matter, all the talk doesn’t matter, just going to come down to which team makes the fewest mistakes and is able to turn in some big plays, like it does in all big games. From this viewpoint, rankings aside, Florida appears to be a more complete team and if the defense shows up like it has so far, advantage visitors.
SLIGHT EDGE: FLORIDA
KEYS TO VICTORY
RUN THE BALL
Florida is not good enough up front to simply line up and pound the ball at Tennessee, but this doesn’t necessarily have to be a balanced offensive effort. An effective ground attack can take some of the heat off Appleby, who has played in a number of big stadiums against major opponents in the Big Ten, but has rarely come out on the winning side. If he lets the others around him do the heavy lifting, Florida will be in good shape.
BACK UP THE BOASTS
The Gators’ defense has been reminding all who’ll listen about how strong they have been, but they’ve also played nobody (Kentucky doesn’t count, the Wildcats react like kittens at the sight of the Gators). If indeed Florida has the BDN and is indeed DBU, it’s time to deliver and make those words mean something.
PLAY SMART
Emotions will be running high for both sides, especially early in the contest. It will be imperative for Florida to keep its cool while playing with the proper amount of energy. The Gators have been by far the most penalized team in the SEC, getting penalized 44 yards per game more than their opponents. In a close game, that could matter. Keep the personal fouls and foolish penalties under control, and the Gators’ chances for victory rise dramatically.
MARTY’S PREDICTION: FLORIDA 19, Tennessee 17
