as theirs is this one.... covid19.healthdata.org and shows not only projections for the entire US, but breaks it down state-by-state as well. I have no idea how many of you have looked at it, but I posted it so people could see it if they choose to. It assumes the mitigating tactics currently used by each state, and looks at four - stay-at-home order, educational facilities closed, non-essential services closed, and travel severely limited. States without 3 out of the 4 are projected to have greater loss of life. It also puts emphasis on available beds, ICU beds, and ventilators, and those states with issues in these areas are also projected to have considerably greater loss of life. It's interesting to me that California, which stumbled a bit out of the gate, but then became somewhat more proactive, is projected to have a total of 5,086 deaths. It will have no shortage of beds or ICU beds. In contrast, New York, with a significant shortage of total beds and ICU beds, is projected to hit its peak death rate in 9 days and end up with almost 16,000 deaths. In Tennessee, the model projects hitting the peak on April 26. Because of the significant shortage of beds and ICU beds and the lack of a stay-at-home order they project almost 5000 deaths. This was prior to Lee closing non-essential services, and also does not consider us to have educational facilities closed, likely because it was not ordered, but was urged. However, that request has been followed essentially the state. So between having nonessential services closed and also almost all educational facilities closed, that number obviously should be revised down.
I put this up just so people could take a look if they choose. I am not trying to change the opinion of anyone about the validity of this model or any model.
I put this up just so people could take a look if they choose. I am not trying to change the opinion of anyone about the validity of this model or any model.
