Seems to have gone largely unreported by the media that the last 48 hours (really the last 4-5 days due to the results lag) have seen an explosion in the CV testing rate across the US.
For about 15 days in April through Monday/Tuesday we had been testing at a rate of about 140-150k nationwide tests per day. But on Wednesday and Thursday we reported over 500k test results across the country. Huge jump. That’s a 60 percent increase.
I believe it is sustainable. I know that Georgia, as an example, is rapidly increasing testing (has the supplies) on an almost daily basis. We were doing ab 2k tests a day on April 13; now on our way to 10k per day by mid next week and then plans for more in May and beyond. Sure every state is doing significant percentage jumps.
Good news for the goal of doing 5-10mm tests a week in a fully reopened economy this summer.
But the interesting takeaway for the end of April... this new, 60 percent jump in tests administered over the last 48 hours did NOT result in an increase in overall positive result totals, relative to the prior 48 hours. We bumped along at about 30k positives a day regardless of whether we were doing 150k total tests per day or 250k total tests per day.
Only two days of data, but if the trend roughly holds as we continue to grow the testing, you are getting closer to the goal of a 97-99 percent negative rate and always being able to locate virtually all positives, capacity-wise, in a day or so if you really needed to if certain localized outbreaks were to occur.
Coupled with the data out of NY and CA about the true mortality rate (under 1 percent) this is great news for getting our lives back closer to normal.
For about 15 days in April through Monday/Tuesday we had been testing at a rate of about 140-150k nationwide tests per day. But on Wednesday and Thursday we reported over 500k test results across the country. Huge jump. That’s a 60 percent increase.
I believe it is sustainable. I know that Georgia, as an example, is rapidly increasing testing (has the supplies) on an almost daily basis. We were doing ab 2k tests a day on April 13; now on our way to 10k per day by mid next week and then plans for more in May and beyond. Sure every state is doing significant percentage jumps.
Good news for the goal of doing 5-10mm tests a week in a fully reopened economy this summer.
But the interesting takeaway for the end of April... this new, 60 percent jump in tests administered over the last 48 hours did NOT result in an increase in overall positive result totals, relative to the prior 48 hours. We bumped along at about 30k positives a day regardless of whether we were doing 150k total tests per day or 250k total tests per day.
Only two days of data, but if the trend roughly holds as we continue to grow the testing, you are getting closer to the goal of a 97-99 percent negative rate and always being able to locate virtually all positives, capacity-wise, in a day or so if you really needed to if certain localized outbreaks were to occur.
Coupled with the data out of NY and CA about the true mortality rate (under 1 percent) this is great news for getting our lives back closer to normal.
