...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected over a large part of the
southeastern states on Friday. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes
may occur throughout the period.
...Synopsis...
A potent shortwave trough will move eastward across the OH and TN
valleys, with substantial height falls and increasing winds aloft.
Low pressure is forecast to travel eastward along the OH River
during the day, reaching WV by 00Z. A cold front will extend
southward from the low across eastern KY and TN, trailing
west/southwestard across central AL and into southern MS/LA.
Meanwhile, a warm front will lift northward across NC and into VA
during the day, aided by southwesterly 850 mb flow around 40 kt.
Ample low-level moisture will exist across the warm sector, and
strong shear will favor severe storms throughout the day. Several
areas of concentrated severe potential may materialize, with the
potential for a few tornadoes.
...Eastern KY and TN...
Early day storms may produce hail across the eastern half of TN and
KY as large-scale lift and instability increase. The main threat is
expected to be during the afternoon, ahead of the strong vorticity
maximum, where clearing/heating takes place and shear is strong.
While models vary regarding how much instability will develop, this
area will be very favorable for an arcing line of low-topped
supercells, with hail and tornado risk. An upgrade in risk category
may be considered in later outlooks.
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected over a large part of the
southeastern states on Friday. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes
may occur throughout the period.
...Synopsis...
A potent shortwave trough will move eastward across the OH and TN
valleys, with substantial height falls and increasing winds aloft.
Low pressure is forecast to travel eastward along the OH River
during the day, reaching WV by 00Z. A cold front will extend
southward from the low across eastern KY and TN, trailing
west/southwestard across central AL and into southern MS/LA.
Meanwhile, a warm front will lift northward across NC and into VA
during the day, aided by southwesterly 850 mb flow around 40 kt.
Ample low-level moisture will exist across the warm sector, and
strong shear will favor severe storms throughout the day. Several
areas of concentrated severe potential may materialize, with the
potential for a few tornadoes.
...Eastern KY and TN...
Early day storms may produce hail across the eastern half of TN and
KY as large-scale lift and instability increase. The main threat is
expected to be during the afternoon, ahead of the strong vorticity
maximum, where clearing/heating takes place and shear is strong.
While models vary regarding how much instability will develop, this
area will be very favorable for an arcing line of low-topped
supercells, with hail and tornado risk. An upgrade in risk category
may be considered in later outlooks.
