247 Florida Thomas Goldkamp
When breaking down where a program is headed, it's important to identify trends in recruiting. GatorBait.net stops to take a look at the two-year trend in Florida recruiting under Jim McElwain to determine where the Gators are getting more talented and where the talent level is dropping off.
To look at the changes on a roster and evaluate recruiting classes, often looking at them in groups of two is helpful. Using two-year segments helps to eliminate issues with small sample size, where missing on a position in a given year can be evened out by hitting on that position in the following class.
Using Florida's last four recruiting classes, we've analyzed how the Gators roster has shifted both in terms of numbers and talent.
Keeping a keen eye on bluechip talent (recruits rated either 4- or 5-stars), we took the 2013 and 2014 recruiting classes and broke them down by position and 247Composite star rating, and you can see that breakdown below.
2013-14 Breakdown By Position
Pos (Num - Avg) - Breakdown of Star Ratings
QB (3 - 3.7) - 2 (4-star), 1 (3-star)
RB (2 - 4.0) - 1 (5-star), 1 (3-star)
WR (8 - 3.4) - 3 (4-star), 5 (3-star)
TE (2 - 3.0) - 2 (3-star)
OL (11 - 3.1) - 1 (4-star), 10 (3-star)
DE (5 - 3.2) - 1 (4-star), 4 (3-star)
DT (6 - 4.0) - 6 (4-star)
LB (4 - 4.0) - 1 (5-star), 2 (4-star), 1 (3-star)
CB (5 - 4.0) - 2 (5-star), 1 (4-star), 2 (3-star)
S (4 - 4.0) - 4 (4-star)
ST (1 - 3.0) - 1 (3-star)
Offense Bluechip: 7 of 26 (26.9%) | Average Stars: 3.3
Defense Bluechip: 17 of 24 (70.8%) | Average Stars: 3.8
Overall Bluechip: 24 of 51 (47.1%) | Average Stars: 3.5
Florida's bluechip percentage on defense in those two classes was outstanding. Not coincidentally, the Gators have also fielded a fantastic defense over the last couple seasons with many of those players turning into starters.
Of those 17 bluechip defensive players, six have been regular starters, while another four have been regular contributors.
Meanwhile, on the offensive side of the ball, six of the seven bluechip players in those two classes have been regular starters. Florida's problem offensively has been a severe lack of talented depth, and that shows up in the recruiting numbers.
The good news?
Jim McElwain has begun to improve the talent on offense. With the 2015 and 2016 recruiting classes, McElwain bumped the offensive bluechip percentage against its previous two-year average by more than six percentage points. The average star rating of offensive players is slightly better from 2015-16 than 2013-14.
But there are concerns on the defensive side of the ball, where the quality of recruits landed -- at least in terms of 247Composite star rating -- has dropped off considerably.
Check out the breakdown of the 2015 and 2016 classes by position below.
2015-16 Breakdown By Position
Pos (Num - Avg) - Breakdown of Star Ratings
QB (2 - 3.5) - 1 (4-star), 1 (3-star)
RB (4 - 3.8) - 3 (4-star), 1 (3-star)
WR (7 - 3.4) - 3 (4-star), 4 (3-star)
TE (2 - 3.0) - 2 (3-star)
OL (9 - 3.2) - 1 (5-star), 8 (3-star)
DE (6 - 3.7) - 1 (5-star), 2 (4-star), 3 (3-star)
DT (2 - 3.0) - 2 (3-star)
LB (4 - 3.3) - 1 (4-star), 3 (3-star)
CB (5 - 3.2) - 1 (4-star), 4 (3-star)
S (3 - 3.0) - 3 (3-star)
ST (1 - 3.0) - 1 (3-star)
Offense Bluechip: 8 of 24 (33.3%) | Average Stars: 3.4
Defense Bluechip: 5 of 20 (25.0%) | Average Stars: 3.3
Overall Bluechip: 13 of 45 (28.9%) | Average Stars: 3.3
That two-year period from 2013-14 where Will Muschamp notched a 70.8 percent bluechip haul on defense? In the last two cycles that percentage has dipped to just 25.0 percent, with Florida landing only five bluechip recruits on defense.
While the Gators have improved their talent at defensive end by the numbers, there has been a talent dropoff by star rating at every other position on defense.
When McElwain was hired, he was brought in to fix the offense and build Florida back into a contender.
He's certainly on his way to fixing the offense, demonstrating clearly in his first year that his system can be extremely productive despite limited parts with a capable quarterback. As he upgrades those parts around the quarterback and continues to develop offensive players, Florida figures to get things straightened out on that side of the ball.
The danger is letting the talent slip too much defensively. The Gators have typically fielded top-notch defenses, and fans are well aware what a unit like that can do even with a limited offense (see: a trip to Atlanta in 2015).
If Florida hopes to compete for national titles regularly, though, McElwain will have to maintain the talent level on defense as he improves the offense.
There's certainly work to be done.
When breaking down where a program is headed, it's important to identify trends in recruiting. GatorBait.net stops to take a look at the two-year trend in Florida recruiting under Jim McElwain to determine where the Gators are getting more talented and where the talent level is dropping off.
To look at the changes on a roster and evaluate recruiting classes, often looking at them in groups of two is helpful. Using two-year segments helps to eliminate issues with small sample size, where missing on a position in a given year can be evened out by hitting on that position in the following class.
Using Florida's last four recruiting classes, we've analyzed how the Gators roster has shifted both in terms of numbers and talent.
Keeping a keen eye on bluechip talent (recruits rated either 4- or 5-stars), we took the 2013 and 2014 recruiting classes and broke them down by position and 247Composite star rating, and you can see that breakdown below.
2013-14 Breakdown By Position
Pos (Num - Avg) - Breakdown of Star Ratings
QB (3 - 3.7) - 2 (4-star), 1 (3-star)
RB (2 - 4.0) - 1 (5-star), 1 (3-star)
WR (8 - 3.4) - 3 (4-star), 5 (3-star)
TE (2 - 3.0) - 2 (3-star)
OL (11 - 3.1) - 1 (4-star), 10 (3-star)
DE (5 - 3.2) - 1 (4-star), 4 (3-star)
DT (6 - 4.0) - 6 (4-star)
LB (4 - 4.0) - 1 (5-star), 2 (4-star), 1 (3-star)
CB (5 - 4.0) - 2 (5-star), 1 (4-star), 2 (3-star)
S (4 - 4.0) - 4 (4-star)
ST (1 - 3.0) - 1 (3-star)
Offense Bluechip: 7 of 26 (26.9%) | Average Stars: 3.3
Defense Bluechip: 17 of 24 (70.8%) | Average Stars: 3.8
Overall Bluechip: 24 of 51 (47.1%) | Average Stars: 3.5
Florida's bluechip percentage on defense in those two classes was outstanding. Not coincidentally, the Gators have also fielded a fantastic defense over the last couple seasons with many of those players turning into starters.
Of those 17 bluechip defensive players, six have been regular starters, while another four have been regular contributors.
Meanwhile, on the offensive side of the ball, six of the seven bluechip players in those two classes have been regular starters. Florida's problem offensively has been a severe lack of talented depth, and that shows up in the recruiting numbers.
The good news?
Jim McElwain has begun to improve the talent on offense. With the 2015 and 2016 recruiting classes, McElwain bumped the offensive bluechip percentage against its previous two-year average by more than six percentage points. The average star rating of offensive players is slightly better from 2015-16 than 2013-14.
But there are concerns on the defensive side of the ball, where the quality of recruits landed -- at least in terms of 247Composite star rating -- has dropped off considerably.
Check out the breakdown of the 2015 and 2016 classes by position below.
2015-16 Breakdown By Position
Pos (Num - Avg) - Breakdown of Star Ratings
QB (2 - 3.5) - 1 (4-star), 1 (3-star)
RB (4 - 3.8) - 3 (4-star), 1 (3-star)
WR (7 - 3.4) - 3 (4-star), 4 (3-star)
TE (2 - 3.0) - 2 (3-star)
OL (9 - 3.2) - 1 (5-star), 8 (3-star)
DE (6 - 3.7) - 1 (5-star), 2 (4-star), 3 (3-star)
DT (2 - 3.0) - 2 (3-star)
LB (4 - 3.3) - 1 (4-star), 3 (3-star)
CB (5 - 3.2) - 1 (4-star), 4 (3-star)
S (3 - 3.0) - 3 (3-star)
ST (1 - 3.0) - 1 (3-star)
Offense Bluechip: 8 of 24 (33.3%) | Average Stars: 3.4
Defense Bluechip: 5 of 20 (25.0%) | Average Stars: 3.3
Overall Bluechip: 13 of 45 (28.9%) | Average Stars: 3.3
That two-year period from 2013-14 where Will Muschamp notched a 70.8 percent bluechip haul on defense? In the last two cycles that percentage has dipped to just 25.0 percent, with Florida landing only five bluechip recruits on defense.
While the Gators have improved their talent at defensive end by the numbers, there has been a talent dropoff by star rating at every other position on defense.
When McElwain was hired, he was brought in to fix the offense and build Florida back into a contender.
He's certainly on his way to fixing the offense, demonstrating clearly in his first year that his system can be extremely productive despite limited parts with a capable quarterback. As he upgrades those parts around the quarterback and continues to develop offensive players, Florida figures to get things straightened out on that side of the ball.
The danger is letting the talent slip too much defensively. The Gators have typically fielded top-notch defenses, and fans are well aware what a unit like that can do even with a limited offense (see: a trip to Atlanta in 2015).
If Florida hopes to compete for national titles regularly, though, McElwain will have to maintain the talent level on defense as he improves the offense.
There's certainly work to be done.
