LONG
What a match up!
At stake:
UK- Must win for the SEC race and for them getting a 1 seed. Tennessee, Duke and UVA are locks. Gonzaga (2 losses) is not going to lose again and no way a 5 loss UK teams gets in over them. UK has to run the table and get 2 wins over an elite Tennessee team to get a 1 seed.
UT- Road win @ UK locks up the 1 seed.
Kentucky- They are interesting to me. I have talked to a few basketball people about them and they feel similar about them as I do. Of course the national media is going to love them up because it is good for ratings to have UK as "elite". I just don't think they are. I think they are a good team and some nights are really good. I just don't see them as one of the elite teams in CBB (UT, Duke, UVA, Zaga and Mich St was before losing their best guard).
They really got the benefit of playing Kansas when they were a shell of themselves but were still ranked Top 10 and everyone on the surface assumed they were elite. That was the national game darling and viewed as a National Championship type preview. So when UK beat them it was a massive deal. Kansas is not even a Top 20 team right now. They had a 3 game stretch that elevated them in everyone's minds. @ Top 15 Auburn. Home win over Top 20 Miss State and then the Kansas game. At the time those 3 teams were seen as really really good. As it turns out the bottom fell out for Kansas and Auburn and Miss State is now safely a solid team certainly not a great team. Not taking away from UK because those are good wins but at the time they seemed like a huge deal but the reality is those teams are not great teams as they were thought to be.
Rebounding
There is a pretty big misconception about UK.
It is assumed Kentucky has great size and length. They do not. They are however a really good rebounding basketball team and they focus on crashing the boards as a team. It is their philosophy and with that level of focus combined with being athletic it produces.
Reid Travis is 6'8 and strong as an ox. He doesn't play above the rim nor is he long.
Washington is 6'8 but is long. He is very athletic.
Keldon Johnson is 6'6 and 200 pounds and is a good athlete.
That is their height and length who play.
Nick Richards typically plays around 10 minutes per game and that has gone down in SEC play. He is not very good at basketball but he is big and athletic. He is a very good shot blocker. He plays less when Washington plays well. He is the biggest player on the team.
EJ Montgomery- tall, long and skinny. He is a 6'10 hustle guy. Not much offensive game. Decent rebounder and decent shot blocker. Plays about 10-15 minutes per game. He is getting the minutes Richards has lost.
They are not LSU. They are not big, massive and elite athletes who overwhelm you on the boards. They do a good job of positioning and focusing on rebounding. That is how they hurt you. They don't have their normal explosive bouncy big wing players that can hurt you from that area. Herro is not that and Keldon Johnson is a solid athlete but an elite one.
Offensively
Ashton Hagans is a great defender, a good passer and facilitator but a non factor shooting the ball. He can penetrate with his quickness. Expect us to play off him with his man clogging the lane and helping on UKs bigs.
They play through Washington, Johnson and Herro. Reid Travis point production has plummeted in SEC play and quite frankly he has been a non factor scoring wise in the majority of SEC games. He has scored single digits in 8 out of 11 SEC games including 6 games with under 6 points.
PJ Washington is a stud and getting better. Offensive game is expanding. Good 3 point shooter, can drive and can post up.
Johnson is a streaky shooter who can disappear. I imagine he will be locked in. I put Admiral on him to be physical on the young freshman.
Herro has a nice all around game and can really shoot it. He scares me the most. You know you will get buckets from Washington and Johnson and that is fine. Herro is the guy who can go off and bang 6 3's on you. I put Bowden on him all game and its not even close. Jordan Bowden never breaks down defensively. He is always locked in. Against a shooter if you fall asleep or have a lapse it is a 3. I play Bowden 32 plus minutes and he is with Herro all game long. If Herro doesn't go off Kentucky can not score with us IMO.
They also bring Quickley and Baker off the bench for short minutes. They are okay shooters, not great size, solid athletes. They haven't really gotten to play for long enough stretches to really show everything they have.
Defensively
They can play. Cal has them bought in. Starts with Hagans who is elite. Johnson and Herro solid. Washington can't bang like he used to with the weight loss but he moves better and is more athletic, natural trade off. Reid Travis is solid. Not much length but is in position and isn't going to be moved. Good not great shot blocking team. When Richards or EJ is not in they don't protect the rim great.
Star Power match ups:
Grant Williams vs PJ Washington- Grant dominated this match up 3 times last year. They are both significantly better than last year.
The Admiral vs Keldon Johnson- Admiral is an NBA player. KJ is a lottery pick. SR vs FR.
Fascinating match up:
Jordan Bone vs Ashton Hagans- probably the most explosive, arguably best PG in CBB vs a bona fide elite defender. Can Hagans stop Bone from getting into the lane and getting out in transition. Tennessee plays faster than anyone due to Bone getting the ball up the court. Can Hagans slow this down?
X Factor match up:
Tyler Herro offense vs Jordan Bowden defense
Here is the reality, when breaking down a game you have to speak generally. It is basketball and is not always cut and dry. You can have an awful shooting night and the other team can shoot over their heads. But in general......
Kentucky is going to have to be able to score to keep up with Tennessee. UK is limited by the fact that their PG's scoring is pretty much restricted to lay ups and the fact that Reid Travis has turned into a non factor. They have 3 guys who carry the load. Washington and Johnson are going to get their points, which is fine. HERRO IS THE GUY WHO CAN GO OFF. He can go 6 of 9 from 3. IMO he has to score close to 20 to give UK a chance to score enough.
Jordan Bowden is as good of a wing defender as there is in CBB. As I mentioned earlier if you watch him in games he never breaks down, never relaxes and is always locked in. Against a wing shooter that is key. Herro won't be able to go by him and will have to shoot over his length. Tip your cap on the makes but college players struggle to do that consistently.
To me this match up determines if UK can keep pace. This is obviously assuming Tennessee doesn't go ice cold, which happens in basketball.
Bottom Line
Basketball is a funny game. The better team doesn't always win like football. This game really doesn't hurt Tennessee if they lose it (speaking national perception and seeding wise).
Tennessee is the better more complete basketball team.
Rick Barnes is a better coach than John Calipari.
Road games are tough. It is also true some teams do in fact play better on the road. That seems to be the case with the Vols. I know first hand that Tennessee is going to walk into Rupp looking for blood.
I hope the refs let them play. We don't need quick whistles. Let the teams determine it. If a key guy for UK gets in foul trouble it may get ugly. Tennessee can play through a starter being on the bench much more easily than UK can.
It is VERY hard to do what Tennessee has done by basically not having "a big game" in 2 months. We thought WVU would be that. It wasn't. To take care of business continually in a game like basketball is no small feat.
The "big game" is now here and trust me when I tell you Tennessee can not wait.
I am not sold on UK being more than a really good team. They impress me defensively. I think they are limited offensively. The atmosphere will be rocking and UK may come out like gang busters early but once everyone settles in I am going to be interested if this young UK team can lock in for 40 minutes and keep pace with Tennessee.
What a match up!
At stake:
UK- Must win for the SEC race and for them getting a 1 seed. Tennessee, Duke and UVA are locks. Gonzaga (2 losses) is not going to lose again and no way a 5 loss UK teams gets in over them. UK has to run the table and get 2 wins over an elite Tennessee team to get a 1 seed.
UT- Road win @ UK locks up the 1 seed.
Kentucky- They are interesting to me. I have talked to a few basketball people about them and they feel similar about them as I do. Of course the national media is going to love them up because it is good for ratings to have UK as "elite". I just don't think they are. I think they are a good team and some nights are really good. I just don't see them as one of the elite teams in CBB (UT, Duke, UVA, Zaga and Mich St was before losing their best guard).
They really got the benefit of playing Kansas when they were a shell of themselves but were still ranked Top 10 and everyone on the surface assumed they were elite. That was the national game darling and viewed as a National Championship type preview. So when UK beat them it was a massive deal. Kansas is not even a Top 20 team right now. They had a 3 game stretch that elevated them in everyone's minds. @ Top 15 Auburn. Home win over Top 20 Miss State and then the Kansas game. At the time those 3 teams were seen as really really good. As it turns out the bottom fell out for Kansas and Auburn and Miss State is now safely a solid team certainly not a great team. Not taking away from UK because those are good wins but at the time they seemed like a huge deal but the reality is those teams are not great teams as they were thought to be.
Rebounding
There is a pretty big misconception about UK.
It is assumed Kentucky has great size and length. They do not. They are however a really good rebounding basketball team and they focus on crashing the boards as a team. It is their philosophy and with that level of focus combined with being athletic it produces.
Reid Travis is 6'8 and strong as an ox. He doesn't play above the rim nor is he long.
Washington is 6'8 but is long. He is very athletic.
Keldon Johnson is 6'6 and 200 pounds and is a good athlete.
That is their height and length who play.
Nick Richards typically plays around 10 minutes per game and that has gone down in SEC play. He is not very good at basketball but he is big and athletic. He is a very good shot blocker. He plays less when Washington plays well. He is the biggest player on the team.
EJ Montgomery- tall, long and skinny. He is a 6'10 hustle guy. Not much offensive game. Decent rebounder and decent shot blocker. Plays about 10-15 minutes per game. He is getting the minutes Richards has lost.
They are not LSU. They are not big, massive and elite athletes who overwhelm you on the boards. They do a good job of positioning and focusing on rebounding. That is how they hurt you. They don't have their normal explosive bouncy big wing players that can hurt you from that area. Herro is not that and Keldon Johnson is a solid athlete but an elite one.
Offensively
Ashton Hagans is a great defender, a good passer and facilitator but a non factor shooting the ball. He can penetrate with his quickness. Expect us to play off him with his man clogging the lane and helping on UKs bigs.
They play through Washington, Johnson and Herro. Reid Travis point production has plummeted in SEC play and quite frankly he has been a non factor scoring wise in the majority of SEC games. He has scored single digits in 8 out of 11 SEC games including 6 games with under 6 points.
PJ Washington is a stud and getting better. Offensive game is expanding. Good 3 point shooter, can drive and can post up.
Johnson is a streaky shooter who can disappear. I imagine he will be locked in. I put Admiral on him to be physical on the young freshman.
Herro has a nice all around game and can really shoot it. He scares me the most. You know you will get buckets from Washington and Johnson and that is fine. Herro is the guy who can go off and bang 6 3's on you. I put Bowden on him all game and its not even close. Jordan Bowden never breaks down defensively. He is always locked in. Against a shooter if you fall asleep or have a lapse it is a 3. I play Bowden 32 plus minutes and he is with Herro all game long. If Herro doesn't go off Kentucky can not score with us IMO.
They also bring Quickley and Baker off the bench for short minutes. They are okay shooters, not great size, solid athletes. They haven't really gotten to play for long enough stretches to really show everything they have.
Defensively
They can play. Cal has them bought in. Starts with Hagans who is elite. Johnson and Herro solid. Washington can't bang like he used to with the weight loss but he moves better and is more athletic, natural trade off. Reid Travis is solid. Not much length but is in position and isn't going to be moved. Good not great shot blocking team. When Richards or EJ is not in they don't protect the rim great.
Star Power match ups:
Grant Williams vs PJ Washington- Grant dominated this match up 3 times last year. They are both significantly better than last year.
The Admiral vs Keldon Johnson- Admiral is an NBA player. KJ is a lottery pick. SR vs FR.
Fascinating match up:
Jordan Bone vs Ashton Hagans- probably the most explosive, arguably best PG in CBB vs a bona fide elite defender. Can Hagans stop Bone from getting into the lane and getting out in transition. Tennessee plays faster than anyone due to Bone getting the ball up the court. Can Hagans slow this down?
X Factor match up:
Tyler Herro offense vs Jordan Bowden defense
Here is the reality, when breaking down a game you have to speak generally. It is basketball and is not always cut and dry. You can have an awful shooting night and the other team can shoot over their heads. But in general......
Kentucky is going to have to be able to score to keep up with Tennessee. UK is limited by the fact that their PG's scoring is pretty much restricted to lay ups and the fact that Reid Travis has turned into a non factor. They have 3 guys who carry the load. Washington and Johnson are going to get their points, which is fine. HERRO IS THE GUY WHO CAN GO OFF. He can go 6 of 9 from 3. IMO he has to score close to 20 to give UK a chance to score enough.
Jordan Bowden is as good of a wing defender as there is in CBB. As I mentioned earlier if you watch him in games he never breaks down, never relaxes and is always locked in. Against a wing shooter that is key. Herro won't be able to go by him and will have to shoot over his length. Tip your cap on the makes but college players struggle to do that consistently.
To me this match up determines if UK can keep pace. This is obviously assuming Tennessee doesn't go ice cold, which happens in basketball.
Bottom Line
Basketball is a funny game. The better team doesn't always win like football. This game really doesn't hurt Tennessee if they lose it (speaking national perception and seeding wise).
Tennessee is the better more complete basketball team.
Rick Barnes is a better coach than John Calipari.
Road games are tough. It is also true some teams do in fact play better on the road. That seems to be the case with the Vols. I know first hand that Tennessee is going to walk into Rupp looking for blood.
I hope the refs let them play. We don't need quick whistles. Let the teams determine it. If a key guy for UK gets in foul trouble it may get ugly. Tennessee can play through a starter being on the bench much more easily than UK can.
It is VERY hard to do what Tennessee has done by basically not having "a big game" in 2 months. We thought WVU would be that. It wasn't. To take care of business continually in a game like basketball is no small feat.
The "big game" is now here and trust me when I tell you Tennessee can not wait.
I am not sold on UK being more than a really good team. They impress me defensively. I think they are limited offensively. The atmosphere will be rocking and UK may come out like gang busters early but once everyone settles in I am going to be interested if this young UK team can lock in for 40 minutes and keep pace with Tennessee.
