** Copied and pasted from TOS - Created 3:00 p.m., October 20th, 2015 **
Rivalry week. Lets get it started.
The Alabama Crimson Tide and the Tennessee Volunteers face off on Saturday in Tuscaloosa in a week 7 SEC college football rivalry game.
The Alabama Crimson Tide have reeled off four wins in a row and sit at 6-1 after winning at Texas A&M last week. The Alabama offense is averaging 35.6 points and 430.1 yards per game and they have turned the ball over 13 times. Bama QB Jake Coker has completed 61.9 percent of his passes with 11 touchdowns and six interceptions and he has rushed for two touchdowns. Derrick Henry is Alabama’s top rusher with 901 yards and 12 touchdowns and Calvin Ridley leads in receptions with 38 with three of those going for touchdowns. The Crimson Tide defense is allowing 16.7 points and 271.9 yards per game with 12 interceptions, four fumble recoveries, and 22 sacks. Reggie Ragland is the leader of the Alabama defense with 59 tackles, Jarran Reed has 34 tackles, and Jonathan Allen has five sacks. Alabama appears to be a team that is getting better as the season goes on.
The Tennessee Volunteers are 3-3 this season and are coming off of a bye week after beating Georgia two weeks ago. The Tennessee offense is averaging 37.2 points and 434.7 yards per game and they have turned the ball over just five times. Vols QB Joshua Dobbs has completed 58 percent of his passes with eight touchdowns and two interceptions and he has rushed for five scores. Jalen Hurd leads Tennessee in rushing with 572 yards and seven touchdowns and Josh Malone is their top pass catcher with 17 catches. The Tennessee defense is allowing 25.7 points and 419 yards per game with four interceptions, four fumble recoveries, and nine sacks. Jalen Reeves-Maybin is Tennessee’s top tackles with 56, Brian Randolph has 34 tackles, and Derek Barnett has 32 tackles. Tennessee is still looking for a signature win and snagging one here would fill that need.
Alabama is 0-4 against the spread in their last four home games, 1-7 against the spread following a game that they covered the point spread, and 14-5 against the spread in their last 19 October games. Tennessee is 10-22-1 against the spread against a team with a winning record, 2-7 against the spread following a win, and 1-4 against the spread in their last five SEC games. The favorite has covered the point spread in four of the last five meetings of these two and the road team is 14-5-1 against the spread in the last 20 meetings of these two.
Vegas line opening: -14 to -15.5
Current Line: -15 to -15.5
Projected Game Total: 56
I talked to 5 sharps betting on this game, and All of them are previous contributors so this should be pretty interesting to see how they feel.
Sharp #1
Tennessee and Alabama is one of those rivalries that is not gone but is sometimes forgotten. It is very real. These are two teams who have the same main objective. Get the ball, shove it down your throat. They have two very different ways of doing this but that is what each team wants to do. Starting with Alabama. Regardless of what many think about Alabama, They beat themselves much of the game against Ole Miss. This is a very good and talented team. The way they adapt to personnel problems is second to none. But they have to be salivating at Tennessee's rush defense. It is not that Tennessee's players are not in the right position, they just are not tackling. Derrick Henry is not the back where you want to try to shore up your tackling. Also, Kiffen does a great job of scheming to get his best receivers the ball, so look for him to find 12 and 13. As far as the defense goes, very stout. They want to take the run away and want to rarely send more than 5 at the quarterback in passing situations. Thats where they have been lock tight. The Tennessee offense will definitely need to rely on Dobbs not Hurd. Hurd is special but Dobbs is the key. Alabama will probably try to use Ragland to neutralize Dobbs and Tennessee needs to exploit that if that does happen. Dobbs has to be cut loose again like in the UGA game. Let a playmaker make plays if this happens, this game stays close but Alabama has too much experience and depth for them to pull out an upset.
Alabama 31 Tennessee 21
Sharp #2
This game is all about the Tennessee offense versus the Alabama defense, and I do not think that the vols have the ability to put the pressure on the crimson tide offense to score a lot of points when necessary. I do not see them giving up much of a run game, and they will at least in the first half be very content to let Dobbs beat them with his arm. Sadly, I think Tennessee will try to let Hurd go blow for blow with Henry and they will come up short. Not much else to see in this store. Alabama Rolls.
45-20
Sharp #3
This sharp believes that this game is going to hit the over which breaks most trends that indicate how this game is going to go. The real unknown is Tennessee. We know Alabama is going to roll out an elite team with a very sound if not almost bulletproof strategy. This sharp said he does not know what to think about Tennessee. Dobbs looked like a 2009 Terrelle Pryor. Not deadly accurate, not untouchable, but just enough a both that you cant pick which evil to live with. The receivers still need to do better, but no one wants to be that team when the light bulb comes on. Some of the young linemen on both sides of the ball really stood out and are playing with a chip on their shoulder, will they play or will they return to their reserve roles. Especially Kahlil Mckenzie. That one player changes the dynamic of that run defense. The middle linebacker looks better every game. I just see points being put on the board and most likely Alabama winning but points will be put on the board.
I kind of forced a prediction out of him. He said Bama 37 Tennessee 28
Sharp #4
If Tennessee wants to send a message. Get the ball, get an excellent kick return, come out with Kamara and Hurd in the backfield, 9 and 15 on the outside with Wolf at tight end. Run 4 99 routes and let Dobbs air it out. Regardless of result Alabama needs to fear the deep ball and they need to forget that Jalen Hurd plays for Tennessee. If Hurd only gets 5 touches in the first half, the coaching staff probably did something right. They should also never substitute. Alabama does a very good job on defense matching personnel with what the offense is doing. Tennessee needs to suck it up and not substitute in lieu of getting that eventual formation that was a complete mistake. If these things do not happen, you can talk until you are blue in the face and the vols still will not do anything. This sharp thinks some of this happens but not all of it. Old habits die hard.
Alabama 38 Tennessee 28
Sharp #5
This last sharp says if anyone is rushing for a 100 yards this week the best probability is Derrick Henry and then Joshua Dobbs. If Alabama throws more than 15 times outside of screens, then they might be in trouble but this sharp does not see that happening. Tackling problems do not just magically disappear. Derrick Henry should have a field day in this game. Drake should be able to put some damage down too. Ridley is a future a star and the kid can fly, be on the look out if he gets anyone other than Sutton lined up against him. and if 6 is not roaming deep in the middle of the field, double moves toward the goal posts are going to be tried on several occasions. Tennessee can only stay relevant by creating some turnovers and getting great special teams play. I do not think all the moving parts will work enough to derail a crimson tide train that looks to be steamrolling. They took A&M's best punch in stride to a very good win. If Tennessee comes out hot and Alabama starts slow as this season would indicate, Alabama could see adversity. The crowd will be pumping, I do not think Tennessee gets it done but I think the spread will be covered. This sharp takes the points
Alabama 33 Tennessee 20
Sharp #1 is sharp #1 from UGA: he predicating UGA, FL, and OU would win and cover
Sharp #2 is the sharp from ArK: He predicted Ark would win and cover
Sharp #3 is sharp #3 from Fl: He picked OU over and FL under
Sharp #4 is Sharp #2 from UGA: He picked OU would cover and win and Tenn to cover and Win vs UGA
Sharp #5 is sharp #3 from UGA: He picked UGA to cover and win
No one predicting victory for the vols but many seem to be taking the points. All seem to think that if the vols even attempt to air it out they will have more success than trying to spend extra time dedicated towards establishing the run.
Lets hope Dobbs throws for 400
GO Vols
Rivalry week. Lets get it started.
The Alabama Crimson Tide and the Tennessee Volunteers face off on Saturday in Tuscaloosa in a week 7 SEC college football rivalry game.
The Alabama Crimson Tide have reeled off four wins in a row and sit at 6-1 after winning at Texas A&M last week. The Alabama offense is averaging 35.6 points and 430.1 yards per game and they have turned the ball over 13 times. Bama QB Jake Coker has completed 61.9 percent of his passes with 11 touchdowns and six interceptions and he has rushed for two touchdowns. Derrick Henry is Alabama’s top rusher with 901 yards and 12 touchdowns and Calvin Ridley leads in receptions with 38 with three of those going for touchdowns. The Crimson Tide defense is allowing 16.7 points and 271.9 yards per game with 12 interceptions, four fumble recoveries, and 22 sacks. Reggie Ragland is the leader of the Alabama defense with 59 tackles, Jarran Reed has 34 tackles, and Jonathan Allen has five sacks. Alabama appears to be a team that is getting better as the season goes on.
The Tennessee Volunteers are 3-3 this season and are coming off of a bye week after beating Georgia two weeks ago. The Tennessee offense is averaging 37.2 points and 434.7 yards per game and they have turned the ball over just five times. Vols QB Joshua Dobbs has completed 58 percent of his passes with eight touchdowns and two interceptions and he has rushed for five scores. Jalen Hurd leads Tennessee in rushing with 572 yards and seven touchdowns and Josh Malone is their top pass catcher with 17 catches. The Tennessee defense is allowing 25.7 points and 419 yards per game with four interceptions, four fumble recoveries, and nine sacks. Jalen Reeves-Maybin is Tennessee’s top tackles with 56, Brian Randolph has 34 tackles, and Derek Barnett has 32 tackles. Tennessee is still looking for a signature win and snagging one here would fill that need.
Alabama is 0-4 against the spread in their last four home games, 1-7 against the spread following a game that they covered the point spread, and 14-5 against the spread in their last 19 October games. Tennessee is 10-22-1 against the spread against a team with a winning record, 2-7 against the spread following a win, and 1-4 against the spread in their last five SEC games. The favorite has covered the point spread in four of the last five meetings of these two and the road team is 14-5-1 against the spread in the last 20 meetings of these two.
Vegas line opening: -14 to -15.5
Current Line: -15 to -15.5
Projected Game Total: 56
I talked to 5 sharps betting on this game, and All of them are previous contributors so this should be pretty interesting to see how they feel.
Sharp #1
Tennessee and Alabama is one of those rivalries that is not gone but is sometimes forgotten. It is very real. These are two teams who have the same main objective. Get the ball, shove it down your throat. They have two very different ways of doing this but that is what each team wants to do. Starting with Alabama. Regardless of what many think about Alabama, They beat themselves much of the game against Ole Miss. This is a very good and talented team. The way they adapt to personnel problems is second to none. But they have to be salivating at Tennessee's rush defense. It is not that Tennessee's players are not in the right position, they just are not tackling. Derrick Henry is not the back where you want to try to shore up your tackling. Also, Kiffen does a great job of scheming to get his best receivers the ball, so look for him to find 12 and 13. As far as the defense goes, very stout. They want to take the run away and want to rarely send more than 5 at the quarterback in passing situations. Thats where they have been lock tight. The Tennessee offense will definitely need to rely on Dobbs not Hurd. Hurd is special but Dobbs is the key. Alabama will probably try to use Ragland to neutralize Dobbs and Tennessee needs to exploit that if that does happen. Dobbs has to be cut loose again like in the UGA game. Let a playmaker make plays if this happens, this game stays close but Alabama has too much experience and depth for them to pull out an upset.
Alabama 31 Tennessee 21
Sharp #2
This game is all about the Tennessee offense versus the Alabama defense, and I do not think that the vols have the ability to put the pressure on the crimson tide offense to score a lot of points when necessary. I do not see them giving up much of a run game, and they will at least in the first half be very content to let Dobbs beat them with his arm. Sadly, I think Tennessee will try to let Hurd go blow for blow with Henry and they will come up short. Not much else to see in this store. Alabama Rolls.
45-20
Sharp #3
This sharp believes that this game is going to hit the over which breaks most trends that indicate how this game is going to go. The real unknown is Tennessee. We know Alabama is going to roll out an elite team with a very sound if not almost bulletproof strategy. This sharp said he does not know what to think about Tennessee. Dobbs looked like a 2009 Terrelle Pryor. Not deadly accurate, not untouchable, but just enough a both that you cant pick which evil to live with. The receivers still need to do better, but no one wants to be that team when the light bulb comes on. Some of the young linemen on both sides of the ball really stood out and are playing with a chip on their shoulder, will they play or will they return to their reserve roles. Especially Kahlil Mckenzie. That one player changes the dynamic of that run defense. The middle linebacker looks better every game. I just see points being put on the board and most likely Alabama winning but points will be put on the board.
I kind of forced a prediction out of him. He said Bama 37 Tennessee 28
Sharp #4
If Tennessee wants to send a message. Get the ball, get an excellent kick return, come out with Kamara and Hurd in the backfield, 9 and 15 on the outside with Wolf at tight end. Run 4 99 routes and let Dobbs air it out. Regardless of result Alabama needs to fear the deep ball and they need to forget that Jalen Hurd plays for Tennessee. If Hurd only gets 5 touches in the first half, the coaching staff probably did something right. They should also never substitute. Alabama does a very good job on defense matching personnel with what the offense is doing. Tennessee needs to suck it up and not substitute in lieu of getting that eventual formation that was a complete mistake. If these things do not happen, you can talk until you are blue in the face and the vols still will not do anything. This sharp thinks some of this happens but not all of it. Old habits die hard.
Alabama 38 Tennessee 28
Sharp #5
This last sharp says if anyone is rushing for a 100 yards this week the best probability is Derrick Henry and then Joshua Dobbs. If Alabama throws more than 15 times outside of screens, then they might be in trouble but this sharp does not see that happening. Tackling problems do not just magically disappear. Derrick Henry should have a field day in this game. Drake should be able to put some damage down too. Ridley is a future a star and the kid can fly, be on the look out if he gets anyone other than Sutton lined up against him. and if 6 is not roaming deep in the middle of the field, double moves toward the goal posts are going to be tried on several occasions. Tennessee can only stay relevant by creating some turnovers and getting great special teams play. I do not think all the moving parts will work enough to derail a crimson tide train that looks to be steamrolling. They took A&M's best punch in stride to a very good win. If Tennessee comes out hot and Alabama starts slow as this season would indicate, Alabama could see adversity. The crowd will be pumping, I do not think Tennessee gets it done but I think the spread will be covered. This sharp takes the points
Alabama 33 Tennessee 20
Sharp #1 is sharp #1 from UGA: he predicating UGA, FL, and OU would win and cover
Sharp #2 is the sharp from ArK: He predicted Ark would win and cover
Sharp #3 is sharp #3 from Fl: He picked OU over and FL under
Sharp #4 is Sharp #2 from UGA: He picked OU would cover and win and Tenn to cover and Win vs UGA
Sharp #5 is sharp #3 from UGA: He picked UGA to cover and win
No one predicting victory for the vols but many seem to be taking the points. All seem to think that if the vols even attempt to air it out they will have more success than trying to spend extra time dedicated towards establishing the run.
Lets hope Dobbs throws for 400
GO Vols
