*** Copied/Pasted from TOS - Original thread created November 24th, 1:45 pm ***
Sorry for the wait, y'all. Turkey day has had my full attention!
The Tennessee Volunteers and the Vanderbilt Commodores face off on Saturday in Knoxville in SEC college football action.
The Tennessee Volunteers are 7-4 this season and while it looks nice on the surface it is below the preseason expectations for this team. The Tennessee offense is averaging 32.6 points and 413.4 yards per game and they have turned the ball over 12 times. Vols QB Joshua Dobbs has completed 59.7 percent of his passes with 13 touchdowns and five interceptions and he has rushed for 699 yards and eight touchdowns. Jalen Hurd is Tennessee’s top rusher with 1.038 yards and 10 touchdowns and Von Pearson is the top receiver with 33 catches. The UT defense is allowing 20.5 points and 366.7 yards per game with seven interceptions, seven fumble recoveries, and 22 sacks. Jalen Reeves-Maybin as 96 tackles, Brian Randolph has 60 tackles, and Derek Barnett has 7.0 sacks. Tennessee should be going to a decent bowl but they were thinking SEC East title.
The Vanderbilt Commodores are 4-7 this season so this in state rivalry is their bowl game. The Vanderbilt offense is averaging 14 points and 318.8 yards per game and they have turned the ball over 24 times. Vandy QB Johnny McCrary has completed 54.7 percent of his passes with six touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Ralph Webb leads the Vanderbilt ground attack with 1,003 yards and five touchdowns and Trent Sherfield has 45 receptions. The Commodores defense is allowing 18.1 points and 334.8 yards per game with six interceptions, 11 fumble recoveries, and 26 sacks. Zach Cunningham leads Vandy with 93 tackles and 4.5 sacks, Darreon Herring has 58 tackles, and Oren Brooks has 50 tackles and three interceptions. Vanderbilt has a solid defense but with their offense’s issues they can’t afford to lose the turnover battle.
Tennessee is 4-1 against the spread in their last five SEC games, 7-16-1 against the spread following a win, and 0-4 against the spread against a team with a losing record. Vanderbilt is 4-0 against the spread following a loss, 6-2 against the spread in their last eight SEC games, and 9-3 against the spread in their last 12 road games. The underdog has covered the spread in six of the last eight meetings of these two.
Vegas Line Opening: -16.5 – 18 Vols
Vegas Current Line: -16.5 - 17
Projected Game Total: 41
I was able to find four sharps who are taking a chance on this game. Two of which have bet on Tennessee. These were both the same two that bet on Tennessee against Missouri. Most sharps that are doing well by this point in time in the season usually bet half the units that they usually do because of the unpredictability of the rivalries. Let’s get it started.
Sharp #1
This sharp believes this spread is right on the money. Tennessee can run away with this game by 3 or more scores, and Vanderbilt can keep the game within 10 points with the right defensive scheme. For that reason he is going to stay away from the spread and probably stick with the total. Tennessee’s 19-8 win over Missouri was a strong indication that Butch Jones is very comfortable slowing their pace of play down just a bit and leaning on his defense and special teams. This sharp believes that 10 points will win this game for the Vols and the coaches probably understand that as well. Vanderbilt just does not have a very good offense, and this sharp believes with the improved play of the secondary, and the ability to let Reeves-Maybin roam a little more, they will go with the gameplan of not letting Ralph Webb beat them this game. Tennessee dominated the time of possession against Missouri 36-24. Look for the same strategy. If the big plays are limited like they usually are this will be a low scoring game.
Tennessee 23 Vanderbilt 10
Sharp #2
If the Texas A&M was a precursor what is going to happen, this game will get ugly. Kyle Allen can spin it much better than Josh Dobbs, but Dobbs is a better play maker. Dobbs’ running backs are better. The interior part of the line is better when Robertson is playing. Tennessee’s defense is better. Looked like Brian Randolph forgot how good he was at football earlier in the season. Because it is a rivalry game, This sharp will give Vanderbilt 7 points because he thinks they will cause a turnover in the red zone, but no one can expect this team to move the ball more than 30 yards at a time. With Tennessee’s special teams, it is hard to see Vanderbilt crossing midfield more than twice. To punt that much to a player that can hurt you every time he touches it spells disaster and a meltdown. The Georgia guys like Dobbs, Kamara, and Sutton got a lot of love in the UGA game, and I expect the Tennessee guys to takeover this game. Hurd, Robertson, Kelly, Malone, and Barnett should all have big days in what should be a dominating game. This sharp expects to see some blood boiling, but in the end just too much Tennessee.
Tennessee 31 Vanderbilt 6
Sharp #3
This sharp just harped on mindset and the first thing that came out of his mouth was Tennessee needs to end this rivalry. Not the administration, or what fans think, but if the players want Tennessee to be back to traditional Tennessee, they must put this rivalry to bed. In the future this needs to be a tune-up game going into the SEC championship game, not a potential pitfall. That is the message that he would send to the players. He believes that is exactly what Butch Jones will do. Look at all the examples of teams that are going to play tough games that could make or break getting a shot at a championship (Baylor-TCU, OK-OK St, UF-FSU, Ole Miss- MS St,Aub-Bama, Mich-Ohio St, ND-Stan, etc), and emphasize that Tennessee can be that team where they say, these guys took the drama out of who is going to win in the first the quarter. People always talk about win this last one for the seniors, and that should be a point of emphasis on senior day, but this locker room has to understand what this holds for the future. Players should be hitting their stride right now, and it should be expected that Tennessee comes out and dominates Vanderbilt.
Tennessee 29 Vanderbilt 3
Sharp #4
This is Tennessee’s home finale on a field where they have not played particularly well. No disrespect to Western Carolina or North Texas, but Tennessee was winning as long as they woke up on those Saturday’s. Georgia is really the lone time Tennessee Players put a smile on fans faces, and that took a while even still. This sharp has gone back and forth about the spread because 17 is a really good number. With that being said, this sharp thinks that beginning of this game could be forgettable. It is holiday time, players are not with their families, and minds are not in the right place. This will go for both teams, and lead to a sloppy game at the beginning. A few leaders will try to get the game going (Looking at Barnett and Dobbs), and then handle Vanderbilt with ease. This is one of the games where you do not want the usual suspects to beat you, and I think the opposite will happen. Hurd will explode for yardage. I think the offensive line will be much better in this game than most would think. This sharp will take the line whenever it is at 16.5 in favor of the vols.
Tennessee 20 Vanderbilt 3
Sharp #1 is Sharp #1 from Mizzou: He picked Mizzou cover over Tenn, Tenn cover vs USC, Tenn cover vs UK, Tenn cover over bama but loss, also picked OU would cover and win and Tenn to cover and Win vs UGA
Sharp #2 is Sharp #3 from Mizzou: He picked Tenn cover vs Mizzou, South Carolina cover vs Tenn, and Tenn to win and cover vs UF
Looks like many of the sharps think this game is sitting at about the right spread, but every single one picked the under. This is surprising because although they all acknowledged this, this wasn’t a Kentucky like decision where they had to choose the under. Some think Tennessee could be scary successful against Vanderbilt due to some match-ups they have. They were not specific in that, so I did not add to the individual write-ups, but do not be surprised to see big plays based off what some of these guys are thinking.
Hope everyone has a good Thanksgiving.
Go Vols
Sorry for the wait, y'all. Turkey day has had my full attention!
The Tennessee Volunteers and the Vanderbilt Commodores face off on Saturday in Knoxville in SEC college football action.
The Tennessee Volunteers are 7-4 this season and while it looks nice on the surface it is below the preseason expectations for this team. The Tennessee offense is averaging 32.6 points and 413.4 yards per game and they have turned the ball over 12 times. Vols QB Joshua Dobbs has completed 59.7 percent of his passes with 13 touchdowns and five interceptions and he has rushed for 699 yards and eight touchdowns. Jalen Hurd is Tennessee’s top rusher with 1.038 yards and 10 touchdowns and Von Pearson is the top receiver with 33 catches. The UT defense is allowing 20.5 points and 366.7 yards per game with seven interceptions, seven fumble recoveries, and 22 sacks. Jalen Reeves-Maybin as 96 tackles, Brian Randolph has 60 tackles, and Derek Barnett has 7.0 sacks. Tennessee should be going to a decent bowl but they were thinking SEC East title.
The Vanderbilt Commodores are 4-7 this season so this in state rivalry is their bowl game. The Vanderbilt offense is averaging 14 points and 318.8 yards per game and they have turned the ball over 24 times. Vandy QB Johnny McCrary has completed 54.7 percent of his passes with six touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Ralph Webb leads the Vanderbilt ground attack with 1,003 yards and five touchdowns and Trent Sherfield has 45 receptions. The Commodores defense is allowing 18.1 points and 334.8 yards per game with six interceptions, 11 fumble recoveries, and 26 sacks. Zach Cunningham leads Vandy with 93 tackles and 4.5 sacks, Darreon Herring has 58 tackles, and Oren Brooks has 50 tackles and three interceptions. Vanderbilt has a solid defense but with their offense’s issues they can’t afford to lose the turnover battle.
Tennessee is 4-1 against the spread in their last five SEC games, 7-16-1 against the spread following a win, and 0-4 against the spread against a team with a losing record. Vanderbilt is 4-0 against the spread following a loss, 6-2 against the spread in their last eight SEC games, and 9-3 against the spread in their last 12 road games. The underdog has covered the spread in six of the last eight meetings of these two.
Vegas Line Opening: -16.5 – 18 Vols
Vegas Current Line: -16.5 - 17
Projected Game Total: 41
I was able to find four sharps who are taking a chance on this game. Two of which have bet on Tennessee. These were both the same two that bet on Tennessee against Missouri. Most sharps that are doing well by this point in time in the season usually bet half the units that they usually do because of the unpredictability of the rivalries. Let’s get it started.
Sharp #1
This sharp believes this spread is right on the money. Tennessee can run away with this game by 3 or more scores, and Vanderbilt can keep the game within 10 points with the right defensive scheme. For that reason he is going to stay away from the spread and probably stick with the total. Tennessee’s 19-8 win over Missouri was a strong indication that Butch Jones is very comfortable slowing their pace of play down just a bit and leaning on his defense and special teams. This sharp believes that 10 points will win this game for the Vols and the coaches probably understand that as well. Vanderbilt just does not have a very good offense, and this sharp believes with the improved play of the secondary, and the ability to let Reeves-Maybin roam a little more, they will go with the gameplan of not letting Ralph Webb beat them this game. Tennessee dominated the time of possession against Missouri 36-24. Look for the same strategy. If the big plays are limited like they usually are this will be a low scoring game.
Tennessee 23 Vanderbilt 10
Sharp #2
If the Texas A&M was a precursor what is going to happen, this game will get ugly. Kyle Allen can spin it much better than Josh Dobbs, but Dobbs is a better play maker. Dobbs’ running backs are better. The interior part of the line is better when Robertson is playing. Tennessee’s defense is better. Looked like Brian Randolph forgot how good he was at football earlier in the season. Because it is a rivalry game, This sharp will give Vanderbilt 7 points because he thinks they will cause a turnover in the red zone, but no one can expect this team to move the ball more than 30 yards at a time. With Tennessee’s special teams, it is hard to see Vanderbilt crossing midfield more than twice. To punt that much to a player that can hurt you every time he touches it spells disaster and a meltdown. The Georgia guys like Dobbs, Kamara, and Sutton got a lot of love in the UGA game, and I expect the Tennessee guys to takeover this game. Hurd, Robertson, Kelly, Malone, and Barnett should all have big days in what should be a dominating game. This sharp expects to see some blood boiling, but in the end just too much Tennessee.
Tennessee 31 Vanderbilt 6
Sharp #3
This sharp just harped on mindset and the first thing that came out of his mouth was Tennessee needs to end this rivalry. Not the administration, or what fans think, but if the players want Tennessee to be back to traditional Tennessee, they must put this rivalry to bed. In the future this needs to be a tune-up game going into the SEC championship game, not a potential pitfall. That is the message that he would send to the players. He believes that is exactly what Butch Jones will do. Look at all the examples of teams that are going to play tough games that could make or break getting a shot at a championship (Baylor-TCU, OK-OK St, UF-FSU, Ole Miss- MS St,Aub-Bama, Mich-Ohio St, ND-Stan, etc), and emphasize that Tennessee can be that team where they say, these guys took the drama out of who is going to win in the first the quarter. People always talk about win this last one for the seniors, and that should be a point of emphasis on senior day, but this locker room has to understand what this holds for the future. Players should be hitting their stride right now, and it should be expected that Tennessee comes out and dominates Vanderbilt.
Tennessee 29 Vanderbilt 3
Sharp #4
This is Tennessee’s home finale on a field where they have not played particularly well. No disrespect to Western Carolina or North Texas, but Tennessee was winning as long as they woke up on those Saturday’s. Georgia is really the lone time Tennessee Players put a smile on fans faces, and that took a while even still. This sharp has gone back and forth about the spread because 17 is a really good number. With that being said, this sharp thinks that beginning of this game could be forgettable. It is holiday time, players are not with their families, and minds are not in the right place. This will go for both teams, and lead to a sloppy game at the beginning. A few leaders will try to get the game going (Looking at Barnett and Dobbs), and then handle Vanderbilt with ease. This is one of the games where you do not want the usual suspects to beat you, and I think the opposite will happen. Hurd will explode for yardage. I think the offensive line will be much better in this game than most would think. This sharp will take the line whenever it is at 16.5 in favor of the vols.
Tennessee 20 Vanderbilt 3
Sharp #1 is Sharp #1 from Mizzou: He picked Mizzou cover over Tenn, Tenn cover vs USC, Tenn cover vs UK, Tenn cover over bama but loss, also picked OU would cover and win and Tenn to cover and Win vs UGA
Sharp #2 is Sharp #3 from Mizzou: He picked Tenn cover vs Mizzou, South Carolina cover vs Tenn, and Tenn to win and cover vs UF
Looks like many of the sharps think this game is sitting at about the right spread, but every single one picked the under. This is surprising because although they all acknowledged this, this wasn’t a Kentucky like decision where they had to choose the under. Some think Tennessee could be scary successful against Vanderbilt due to some match-ups they have. They were not specific in that, so I did not add to the individual write-ups, but do not be surprised to see big plays based off what some of these guys are thinking.
Hope everyone has a good Thanksgiving.
Go Vols
