For the tl;dr crowd:
Maybe we can better than expected in 2018. There are three SEC examples in the last decade when it happened and no one thought it would. Can the Vols be a similar success story? *fingers crossed*
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National pundits expect an underwhelming season for the 2018 Vols, but dig into the numbers, and you might find a different story, or at least the potential for one. If Pruitt is the rising star we think and hope he is, 2018 may not be all doom and gloom.
In recent SEC history, there are three relevant examples of programs that had bottomed-out before bringing in young coaches to the right the ship.
Note:
The charts below are populated by historical Sagarin rankings. Jeff Sagarin is an MIT-trained statistician, and his CFB ratings were part of the BCS formula for its entire existence. Though his rankings aren’t perfect, they are a consistent measurement tool, and the historical data is readily available on sagarin.com. The only column of data not sourced from sagarin.com is the recruiting data in the final column. I opted to use the 24/7 Composite rankings instead of Rivals. For those not familiar, the Composite rankings incorporate all available recruiting data for a player—24/7, Rivals, ESPN, Scout etc.—into a single rating. Disclaimer: The recruiting numbers below don't account for transfers, busts, or early departures for the NFL, but they give us a sense of the type of talent flowing through a program.
First, what’s the current state of the Vols?
Jeremy Pruitt inherits one of the worst teams ever at Tennessee, coming off the first 8-loss season in school history. (Did You Know: By win-%, the worst teams in school history were actually the 1906 and the 1909 teams; they were each 1-6.). After fielding three teams that ranked 10th-27th (all of which underachieved, I’d argue), the 2017 Butch Jones-led Vols totally tanked, finishing outside the Sagarin top-90, easily the worst finish in 20 years of Sagarin data. In recruiting, as we enter the 2018 season, the 24/7 Composite rankings for the Vols have ranged from 4th (2015) to 20th (the 2018 class, which is not shown on the chart), averaging 14th.
Mississippi State:
Though he might be a current punching bag on the General’s Quarters, Dan Mullen is a solid example for comparison purposes. After coordinating for a national championship team, he became a first-time head coach and took over an SEC team that had finished outside the Sagarin top-90. In his first year, Mullen took MSU from 93rd to 45th in Sagarin rankings, and he did it with recruiting classes that ranged from 20th (‘09 freshman class) to 50th (Croom’s worst class), averaging 35th. To summarize, though his team was only one win better than Croom’s last, Mullen showed significant and measurable improvement in his first year, including a big rivalry win in the Egg Bowl, and he did it versus what Sagarin believed was the toughest schedule in the country.
Vanderbilt:
The ineptness of Vanderbilt football is well-documented (recent victories over the Vols notwithstanding), but that didn’t stop first-time head coach James Franklin, in 2011, from making bold proclamations in the preseason that his Commodores would perform at a high level. It seemed like lip service that wouldn’t (and couldn’t) become a reality, but then it did. Franklin took a team that had been absolutely abysmal for two seasons and tripled their win total in his first year, and he did it with what was easily the worst roster in the SEC.
Ole Miss:
With only a single season of head-coaching experience (and that in the Sun Belt) on his resume, relative unknown coach Hugh Freeze took over a terrible Ole Miss in 2012, a team that had finished outside the Sagarin top-100 in the prior year and outside the top-80 the year before that. The SEC media and fans gave the Rebels no shot to be relevant in 2012. They were expected to be an easy out for any conference opponent. The four recruiting classes leading up to that 2012 season, when taken as a whole, were average by SEC standards.
Conclusion:
So what does it all mean? Maybe nothing. But maybe something, and maybe something significant. Maybe it shows us that the doomsday scenarios being pushed by the national and SEC media is not a foregone conclusion for the 2018 Vols. In fact, maybe it proves that a talented coach and staff can take an ok-to-solid roster and overachieve with it, even if the schedule is really difficult. Jeremy Pruitt enters his first year in the SEC with a team that, on paper, is more talented than the teams inherited by Mullen, Franklin, and Freeze (per the 4y avg. Sagarin ranks of each team), and that, on paper, was not as bad the previous four years as what those three inherited (compare the 4y avg. Sagarin rankings). The biggest hurdle will be the schedule, which will surely be one of the toughest in the country, similar to MSU in ‘09.
But if Jeremy Pruitt, with his coaching resume full of championships and coaching staff full of SEC experience, is who we think he is, maybe there’s a glimmer of hope for the 2018 Vols. Though I expect some bumps in the road as Pruitt grows into the position, maybe this case study tells us he can also get a win that makes us believe. (Sept. 22 would be a good time for a make-us-believe win.) While his first season won’t make or break him, 2018 should give us a window into the future of Tennessee football. Will we see significant and measurable improvement, or more of the clumsy incompetence we’ve frequently seen the last 8 seasons?
I’m banking on the former.
GBO.
Maybe we can better than expected in 2018. There are three SEC examples in the last decade when it happened and no one thought it would. Can the Vols be a similar success story? *fingers crossed*
----------------------
National pundits expect an underwhelming season for the 2018 Vols, but dig into the numbers, and you might find a different story, or at least the potential for one. If Pruitt is the rising star we think and hope he is, 2018 may not be all doom and gloom.
In recent SEC history, there are three relevant examples of programs that had bottomed-out before bringing in young coaches to the right the ship.
Note:
The charts below are populated by historical Sagarin rankings. Jeff Sagarin is an MIT-trained statistician, and his CFB ratings were part of the BCS formula for its entire existence. Though his rankings aren’t perfect, they are a consistent measurement tool, and the historical data is readily available on sagarin.com. The only column of data not sourced from sagarin.com is the recruiting data in the final column. I opted to use the 24/7 Composite rankings instead of Rivals. For those not familiar, the Composite rankings incorporate all available recruiting data for a player—24/7, Rivals, ESPN, Scout etc.—into a single rating. Disclaimer: The recruiting numbers below don't account for transfers, busts, or early departures for the NFL, but they give us a sense of the type of talent flowing through a program.
First, what’s the current state of the Vols?
Jeremy Pruitt inherits one of the worst teams ever at Tennessee, coming off the first 8-loss season in school history. (Did You Know: By win-%, the worst teams in school history were actually the 1906 and the 1909 teams; they were each 1-6.). After fielding three teams that ranked 10th-27th (all of which underachieved, I’d argue), the 2017 Butch Jones-led Vols totally tanked, finishing outside the Sagarin top-90, easily the worst finish in 20 years of Sagarin data. In recruiting, as we enter the 2018 season, the 24/7 Composite rankings for the Vols have ranged from 4th (2015) to 20th (the 2018 class, which is not shown on the chart), averaging 14th.
- 4y Avg. Sagarin Rank: 37th (2014-2017)
- 4y Avg. 24/7 Composite: 14th (2015-2018)
- Top-25 opponents in 2018 preseason FPI: #2 Alabama, #3 Georgia, #7 Auburn, #21 Florida, (Note: SCar is #28, Mizzou is #29, and WV is #39)
Mississippi State:
Though he might be a current punching bag on the General’s Quarters, Dan Mullen is a solid example for comparison purposes. After coordinating for a national championship team, he became a first-time head coach and took over an SEC team that had finished outside the Sagarin top-90. In his first year, Mullen took MSU from 93rd to 45th in Sagarin rankings, and he did it with recruiting classes that ranged from 20th (‘09 freshman class) to 50th (Croom’s worst class), averaging 35th. To summarize, though his team was only one win better than Croom’s last, Mullen showed significant and measurable improvement in his first year, including a big rivalry win in the Egg Bowl, and he did it versus what Sagarin believed was the toughest schedule in the country.
- 4y Avg. Sagarin Rank: 79th (2005-2008)
- 4y Avg. 24/7 Composite: 35th (2006-2009)
- Ranked opponents in 2009: #2 Florida, #3 Alabama, #7 LSU, #20 Ole Miss, #25 Georgia Tech
Vanderbilt:
The ineptness of Vanderbilt football is well-documented (recent victories over the Vols notwithstanding), but that didn’t stop first-time head coach James Franklin, in 2011, from making bold proclamations in the preseason that his Commodores would perform at a high level. It seemed like lip service that wouldn’t (and couldn’t) become a reality, but then it did. Franklin took a team that had been absolutely abysmal for two seasons and tripled their win total in his first year, and he did it with what was easily the worst roster in the SEC.
- 4y Avg. Sagarin Rank: 81st (2007-2010)
- 4y Avg. 24/7 Composite: 64th (2008-2011)
- Ranked opponents in 2011: #2 Alabama, #8 Arkansas, #12 South Carolina
Ole Miss:
With only a single season of head-coaching experience (and that in the Sun Belt) on his resume, relative unknown coach Hugh Freeze took over a terrible Ole Miss in 2012, a team that had finished outside the Sagarin top-100 in the prior year and outside the top-80 the year before that. The SEC media and fans gave the Rebels no shot to be relevant in 2012. They were expected to be an easy out for any conference opponent. The four recruiting classes leading up to that 2012 season, when taken as a whole, were average by SEC standards.
- 4y Avg. Sagarin Rank: 54th (2008-2011)
- 4y Avg. 24/7 Composite: 27th (2009-2012)
- Ranked opponents in 2012: #1 Alabama, #7 Georgia, #8 LSU, #14 Texas, #25 Miss State
Conclusion:
So what does it all mean? Maybe nothing. But maybe something, and maybe something significant. Maybe it shows us that the doomsday scenarios being pushed by the national and SEC media is not a foregone conclusion for the 2018 Vols. In fact, maybe it proves that a talented coach and staff can take an ok-to-solid roster and overachieve with it, even if the schedule is really difficult. Jeremy Pruitt enters his first year in the SEC with a team that, on paper, is more talented than the teams inherited by Mullen, Franklin, and Freeze (per the 4y avg. Sagarin ranks of each team), and that, on paper, was not as bad the previous four years as what those three inherited (compare the 4y avg. Sagarin rankings). The biggest hurdle will be the schedule, which will surely be one of the toughest in the country, similar to MSU in ‘09.
But if Jeremy Pruitt, with his coaching resume full of championships and coaching staff full of SEC experience, is who we think he is, maybe there’s a glimmer of hope for the 2018 Vols. Though I expect some bumps in the road as Pruitt grows into the position, maybe this case study tells us he can also get a win that makes us believe. (Sept. 22 would be a good time for a make-us-believe win.) While his first season won’t make or break him, 2018 should give us a window into the future of Tennessee football. Will we see significant and measurable improvement, or more of the clumsy incompetence we’ve frequently seen the last 8 seasons?
I’m banking on the former.
GBO.
