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Vegas Line Analysis

BigOrange151

Well-Known Member
Jan 24, 2015
9,145
10,699
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Sharp E and G are the most consistent. Y'all will like their analysis:

Tennessee has reached the 4-0 mark prior to going in to Athens, GA to face the Georgia Bulldogs. The perception among the sharps in Vegas has not really changed, and the general consensus among them is that they need to see more before having full confidence in the Tennessee coaching staff. With that being said, many of them thought the play calling was almost flawless on both sides of the ball. The goal line calls left something to be desired. I was able to find 4 sharps who were playing this game. Although this game fits the bill of games most bettors jump at, there is a lot of uncertainty involved around both teams and that will be shown in the write-up.

The sportschatplace write up is listed at the top of the thread which has a brief write up and prediction on the site.

Let’s begin.

Tennessee (4-0) vs Georgia (3-1)
Opening Line: -3 to 3.5 Tennessee
Current Line: -3 to 3.5 Tennessee
Opening Total: 53
Current Total: 53

Sharp A (0-2-0)
W1: Tenn Cover (L)
W2: Pass
W3: N/A
W4: Fla Cover (L)

Last week this Sharp said that Tennessee was 11 points better than Florida even with the injuries that the vols had sustained, He also mentioned that he hedged his bet and took Tennessee -4 on gameday which saved him from a true loss. Now on to the Georgia game. The only reasons this line is so small are because of the name on the jersey and the location. Georgia is a great matchup for Tennessee, and on the other end for Georgia, this is not the team that you want to be seeing right now. Let’s talk about Georgia first. They have an offensive line that needs work. They have not seen the gradual improvement that Tennessee has, and some growing pains were expected to be there. The running back stable is full as usual, but the health and durability there is a major concern. Chubb is an absolute beast, but he has lost that break away step. He will probably get it back in time, but it is still a little too soon. He looks stronger than ever though. Their receiving unit is not bad, and they have some weapons there, but with their quarterback situation, Mckenzie is the only real reliable option when they need a play. The problem here is Tennessee is very good at stop run, and they are getting better each week. Everyone saw what happened last week when Barnett is able to pin his ears back. Just do not think Georgia has the firepower to keep up with Tennessee. The Tennessee offense will hopefully keep up the same things they did against Florida minus the drops. Until proven otherwise, expect the vols to start slow but this sharp likes the Vols to win and cover Tennessee 37- 28.

Top Plays (6-5-0)

Washington (-3) over Stanford
South Florida (-5.5) over Cincy
Wisconsin vs Michigan over (44.5)
Louisville vs Clemson over (67)
Baylor (-16.5) over Iowa State

Sharp B (1-3-0)
W1: Over (L)
W2: Vols Cover (W)
W3: Vols Cover (L)
W4: Fla win (L)

This sharp was very surprised by the performance that the vols put on the entire game. It is absolutely amazing what a healthy Chance Hall did for the confidence of that offensive line. There were still some mistakes, but give some credit to Florida’s front 4. Those guys are not slouches by any means. That was a battle and in the end Tennessee won and they deserve the credit for that. As for the Georgia game, this game never goes how it is supposed to, and this line reflects the recent history. Based on talent this is the first year Tennessee should have played within a touchdown of Georgia. Healthy Chubb, Michel, and Holyfield will not hide the woes on Georgia’s offensive line. Remember when people said Barnett always comes on strong at the end of the season, well if he gets any better, he might work his way into a top ten pick in the 2017 draft. Tennessee’s offense is getting better. While the gameplan was very good, this offense has plenty of room to grow. If the offensive line can keep Trent Thompson at bay, this could be a very long game for the bulldogs. With that being said, we will see how the coaching really does in a hostile environment. They need to prove that they can pull a game out that their players might get themselves in trouble. This sharp is expecting some unexpected fireworks and will say vols win 34-30. His play is the over.

Top Plays (7-6-1)

UNC (+10) Over FSU
Clemson (+2) over Louisville
Miami (-7) over Georgia Tech

Sharp C (0-3-0)
W1: Over (L)
W2: Pass
W3: Over (L)
W4: Under (L)

This sharp was very impressed with what Tennessee did on Saturday. They were creative in the offense and they kept Florida’s defense on its heels most of the game. They have one thing left to do, and that is get Alvin Kamara involved. When this happens, because this sharp truly does feel like it will happen, the Tennessee offense could very well turn into the most potent offense in the SEC. Due to his recent string of Tennessee losses he is going to only play other games and give himself a week off betting wise. He believes Tennessee wins 37-17. He passes.

Top Plays (8-7-0)
Old Dominion (-8) over UNC Charlotte
Wisconsin (+10) over Michigan
Colorado St. (-6) over Wyoming

Sharp D (0-2-0)
W1: Tennessee Cover (L)
W2: Pass
W3: Pass
W4: Fla Cover (L)

This sharp is also passing on the game because he has not had a successful string of bets, and hopes to get the value on the vols in the next two weeks when they will be underdogs in possibly both games. He loves how the coaching staff made adjustments. He still stands by the belief that this team will only go as far as the coaching staff will take them, but cannot deny the obvious talent and weapons that are all over the field. This loss of keys players is bad, but championship teams build depth in recruiting, and the linebackers that showed up against Florida illustrated that. He believes that Tennessee wins this game 27-25 just because it is always a little odd, but his play is to pass.

Top picks (10-6-0)
Old Dominion (-8) over UNC Charlotte
Duke (-4) over Virginia
Florida Atlantic (-6) over Florida Int.
Louisville (-1.5) over Clemson

Sharp E (2-0-0)
W1: Appalachian St. Cover (W)
W2: Pass
W3: N/A
W4: Vols Cover (W)

I think Saturday was the first time that Butch Jones made moves to attack another team’s strengths and weaknesses. If he can maintain that killer instinct, then he will prove me wrong and be exactly who Tennessee needs in order to put meaningful rings back on the player’s fingers. He put the players in a position to succeed, and at first they didn’t respond, but in the second half they took over. This sharp believes that for the first time, this Tennessee team believes they can beat anyone, not just play with them. The team in Athens is breaking in a new coach, and you can tell. Mark Richt was a cool character at Georgia, and Kirby Smart is a fiery as they come. Richt also let his players voice their opinion in the right manner, and Kirby seems to be a his way or the highway type. Does this mean that Georgia cannot play with Tennessee? Absolutely not, but it means they have to learn to find each other, and looking at all of their previous games, they are not close. They beat a good UNC team, but cleary Chizik forgot what run defense was, Mizzou had them beat and took a chance and got burned. Ole Miss took them to the woodshed. Tennessee’s talent and style is on par with Ole Miss. If they coaches want to make a statement, which I think they will. You go try to beat Georgia by 50 and put yourself in position to win the east before November. Tennessee rolls in a big way. 53-20. Takes vols and parlay over

Top picks (5-6-0)
Ohio (-2.5) over Miami OH
Miami (-7) over Georgia Tech
UNC vs Florida St over (69)
Florida (-10) over Vanderbilt

Sharp F (0-1-0)

Did Not see this sharp

Sharp G (2-0-0)
W1: No play
W2: Over (W)
W3: Pass
W4: Tenn Cover (W)

This is the real game that this sharp has been waiting for. Tennessee is clearly the class of the East, and they have the talent to show it. Four weeks in a row the Vols have started extremely slow. Their defense is built for all situations, but you clearly will see them shine if they can play from ahead. The Georgia offensive line needs serious work. The running backs are good but with no room to run, they will not do as well. Tennessee’s front 7 is suffocating at times, and this was proven more true than ever against Florida. Georgia will need to either run the ball well or open up the passing early to keep Tennessee from over powering them. Trenton Thompson has to set the tone. If he is unable to wreak havoc, Tennessee will run all over them. Dobbs is also very hard to contain, and this sharp believes that will be a determining factor. Keep Dobbs running. Georgia will give up big plays, just have to be patient. Look for Kamara to shake loose this game. Nothing better than the Georgia guys putting on big time in Georgia. They will not feel the extra pressure, but every chance Butch Jones gets to put Kamara, Dobbs, or Preston Williams in the endzone, he will. Interested to see how the coaching staff has the team prepared in their first true road game. In the end, Georgia just will not keep Tennessee from making explosive plays. Vols win 38-10. Vols to cover.

Hope everyone enjoys

Go Vols
 
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