Wanted to go ahead and get this thread up before tomorrow morning. Mods are in pretty good agreement for a winter storm to effect the mid south starting in W Tennessee on Wednesday and finishing up Friday morning in the mountains. I feel really good as of now that West Tennessee will see mostly snow but sleet could mix in at times. The further east you go the forecast becomes much more complex. All across the state the temperatures at the surface will support snow. Just like this last system there could be a warm layer of air (warm nose) push into Tennessee from Nashville east to Knoxville. Mods are really struggling with this part of the storm. Mods like the NAM are on the warm side and have very little accumulation of snow east of Nashville. While the Euro, GFS, RAP and HRRR are much colder and have more snow. Some mods are showing nothing while more than one is showing 5-10” in the valley. Right now the NWS for Knoxville is saying this is a nothing burger but I don’t agree with that at all. They said something similar a couple of days before Christmas Eve. Main thing right now is to see what the daytime high temperatures do tomorrow and to see if the NAM starts caving to the other mods. Later on I’ll posts some maps after my son goes to bed. As always everyone feel free to posts maps and give your opinion.
