Let’s dive into the Week 9 advanced stats, courtesy of Pro Football Focus.
As a reminder, this is the PFF grading scale.
< 50 = Bad
50-60 = Average
70-80 = Above Average
80-84 = Good
85 and up = Very, very good.
With that … the Tennessee-South Carolina advanced stats…
Before I get into the PFF, I wanted to link Bill Connelly's Five Factors box score for the game. The SB Nation stat guru is the creator of S&P+ and measures each game over Five Factors (efficiency, explosiveness, field position, finishing drives and turnovers). What jumps out about the Tennessee-SC five factors box score is the postgame win probability. While it was just a 3-point game (and Connelly's metrics can't take into account a crucial missed call like the goal line fumble), Tennessee had just a 20.2 percent postgame win probability, meaning the game wasn't nearly as close as it seemed. Just an interesting note.
With that, the PFF data.
OFFENSIVE GRADES
Per PFF, Jarrett Guarantano was 1 of 7 on throws that traveled longer than 10 yards in the air … and that was the 5-yard touchdown pass to Eli Wolf.
On all other throws, the second-year starter went 25 of 31 for 203 yards. He completed 13 passes behind the line of scrimmage.
Naturally with all the short throws behind or at the LOS, Tennessee’s wideouts and ‘backs racked up tons of yards after the catch. 200 to be exact. That’s wild. As a group, they averaged 7.7 yards after the catch. Callaway had 86 yards receiving — 70 came after the catch. He also accounted for seven first downs on his nine receptions.
Callaway, Palmer (the deep shot that hit him in the chest) and Jennings were all credited with a drop.
Weird stat of the day: Guarantano’s completion percentage on standard drop-backs: 69.2. On play-action: 69.2
While Vols ran the ball better Saturday, their longest run of the day went for 14 yards (CFA’s touchdown). Their second-biggest gain was Guarantano’s 11-yard scramble.
Still, all the misdirection and emphasis on the short passing game seemed to open up a few more holes behind a makeshift OL. On the day, 52 percent of Tennessee’s rushing yards came after contact. That’s by far its lowest rate in conference play this season: UF (82 percent), UGA (69 percent), AU (86 percent) and Alabama (78 percent).
With no Trey Smith and Chance Hall and Jerome Carvin staying on the bench, Tennessee still opted to run left Saturday. Tatum wasn’t great at the point of attack as a run blocking, but he was helped by Jahmir Johnson and Ryan Johnson, who opened up holes to the tune of 90 yards on 17 carries (5.3 ypa on runs left of the center).
In terms of pass protection, Guarantano was sacked twice and hit four times Saturday. On 44 drop backs, he was still pressured 17 times. That’s still far too many.
Tatum graded out as the unit’s best pass protector (66.3), allowing three hurries. Richmond had a rough night, yielding a sack, a hit and four pressures. The same could be said for Niehaus, who allowed a couple pressures off A-gap blizes. He was also penalized twice.
DEFENESIVE GRADES
So Shawn Shamburger didn’t play. Neither did Matthew Butler. Theo Jackson saw one snap, and only when Nigel Warrior’s helmet popped off. Paul Bain played just four snaps, and Jordan Allen had a two-snap cameo.
After playing 46 snaps against Alabama, Will Ignont saw just six snaps — by far the fewest he’s seen all season.
Along the defensive line, Tennessee inserted John Mincey into the rotation (65.4), with the freshman playing for the first time since the UTEP game. He saw 11 snaps. Emmit Gooden (48.2) played 13 snaps, same for backup OLB Deandre Johnson (53.7).
I will say, Sapp’s grade is the one that jumps out as a the strangest. On film, he was little help in the run game aside from one stop behind the LOS. He was credited with a QB pressure and hit, which helped inflate his overall grade. Of the 12 players listed above, he also played by far the fewest snaps.
Amazingly, Kirkland played more snaps than any of the inside linebackers. That’s simply not a recipe for success for Tennessee right now.
The Vols were responsible for seven missed tackles, per PFF. Two each by TK and Taylor, with Kirkland, Johnson and Buchanan all missing one as well. This is where there’s some nebulous in some of these stats.
You can’t penalize Warrior for a couple misses when he probably should have been in position to make a tackle, yet took a bad angle and had no chance to make a play. The same thing happened to Kirkland on South Carolina’s last big run of the game.
Rico Dowdle rushed for 140 yards on Saturday — 98 yards before contact.
As for the secondary, TK allowed four receptions on four targets, including three first downs and Edwards’ long catch. Warrior was 2 of 2 but for just 16 yards. Bryce Thompson didn’t allow a reception on two targets, neither did Baylen Buchanan.
As a reminder, this is the PFF grading scale.
< 50 = Bad
50-60 = Average
70-80 = Above Average
80-84 = Good
85 and up = Very, very good.
With that … the Tennessee-South Carolina advanced stats…
Before I get into the PFF, I wanted to link Bill Connelly's Five Factors box score for the game. The SB Nation stat guru is the creator of S&P+ and measures each game over Five Factors (efficiency, explosiveness, field position, finishing drives and turnovers). What jumps out about the Tennessee-SC five factors box score is the postgame win probability. While it was just a 3-point game (and Connelly's metrics can't take into account a crucial missed call like the goal line fumble), Tennessee had just a 20.2 percent postgame win probability, meaning the game wasn't nearly as close as it seemed. Just an interesting note.
With that, the PFF data.
OFFENSIVE GRADES
- QB Jarrett Guarantano (78.5)
- RB Tim Jordan (74.7)
- RB Ty Chandler (73.6)
- WR Marquez Callaway (68.2)
- LG Jahmir Johnson (64.8)
- C Ryan Johnson (62.9)
- LT Marcus Tatum (60.5)
- WR Jauan Jennings (59.7)
- LG Nathan Niehaus (58.9)
- WR Josh Palmer (55.6)
- RT Drew Richmond (55.3)
- TE Eli Wolf (54.3)
- TE Dominick Wood-Anderson (51.3)
Per PFF, Jarrett Guarantano was 1 of 7 on throws that traveled longer than 10 yards in the air … and that was the 5-yard touchdown pass to Eli Wolf.
On all other throws, the second-year starter went 25 of 31 for 203 yards. He completed 13 passes behind the line of scrimmage.
Naturally with all the short throws behind or at the LOS, Tennessee’s wideouts and ‘backs racked up tons of yards after the catch. 200 to be exact. That’s wild. As a group, they averaged 7.7 yards after the catch. Callaway had 86 yards receiving — 70 came after the catch. He also accounted for seven first downs on his nine receptions.
Callaway, Palmer (the deep shot that hit him in the chest) and Jennings were all credited with a drop.
Weird stat of the day: Guarantano’s completion percentage on standard drop-backs: 69.2. On play-action: 69.2
While Vols ran the ball better Saturday, their longest run of the day went for 14 yards (CFA’s touchdown). Their second-biggest gain was Guarantano’s 11-yard scramble.
Still, all the misdirection and emphasis on the short passing game seemed to open up a few more holes behind a makeshift OL. On the day, 52 percent of Tennessee’s rushing yards came after contact. That’s by far its lowest rate in conference play this season: UF (82 percent), UGA (69 percent), AU (86 percent) and Alabama (78 percent).
With no Trey Smith and Chance Hall and Jerome Carvin staying on the bench, Tennessee still opted to run left Saturday. Tatum wasn’t great at the point of attack as a run blocking, but he was helped by Jahmir Johnson and Ryan Johnson, who opened up holes to the tune of 90 yards on 17 carries (5.3 ypa on runs left of the center).
In terms of pass protection, Guarantano was sacked twice and hit four times Saturday. On 44 drop backs, he was still pressured 17 times. That’s still far too many.
Tatum graded out as the unit’s best pass protector (66.3), allowing three hurries. Richmond had a rough night, yielding a sack, a hit and four pressures. The same could be said for Niehaus, who allowed a couple pressures off A-gap blizes. He was also penalized twice.
DEFENESIVE GRADES
- MLB Daniel Bituli (83.9)
- Quart’e Sapp (77.7)
- CB Bryce Thompson (72.0)
- DT Alexis Johnson (71.5)
- DE Kyle Phillips (63.4)
- LS Nigel Warrior (62.7)
- DT Shy Tuttle (62.2)
- CB Baylen Buchanan (59.0)
- OLB Darrell Taylor (54.6)
- CB Alontae Taylor (53.5)
- MLB Darrin Kirkland Jr. (52.0)
- SS Todd Kelly Jr. (29.3)
So Shawn Shamburger didn’t play. Neither did Matthew Butler. Theo Jackson saw one snap, and only when Nigel Warrior’s helmet popped off. Paul Bain played just four snaps, and Jordan Allen had a two-snap cameo.
After playing 46 snaps against Alabama, Will Ignont saw just six snaps — by far the fewest he’s seen all season.
Along the defensive line, Tennessee inserted John Mincey into the rotation (65.4), with the freshman playing for the first time since the UTEP game. He saw 11 snaps. Emmit Gooden (48.2) played 13 snaps, same for backup OLB Deandre Johnson (53.7).
I will say, Sapp’s grade is the one that jumps out as a the strangest. On film, he was little help in the run game aside from one stop behind the LOS. He was credited with a QB pressure and hit, which helped inflate his overall grade. Of the 12 players listed above, he also played by far the fewest snaps.
Amazingly, Kirkland played more snaps than any of the inside linebackers. That’s simply not a recipe for success for Tennessee right now.
The Vols were responsible for seven missed tackles, per PFF. Two each by TK and Taylor, with Kirkland, Johnson and Buchanan all missing one as well. This is where there’s some nebulous in some of these stats.
You can’t penalize Warrior for a couple misses when he probably should have been in position to make a tackle, yet took a bad angle and had no chance to make a play. The same thing happened to Kirkland on South Carolina’s last big run of the game.
Rico Dowdle rushed for 140 yards on Saturday — 98 yards before contact.
As for the secondary, TK allowed four receptions on four targets, including three first downs and Edwards’ long catch. Warrior was 2 of 2 but for just 16 yards. Bryce Thompson didn’t allow a reception on two targets, neither did Baylen Buchanan.
