The numbers they are talking about for unreported cases seem absolutely crazy, but what if they are right? Then New York should hit herd immunity in the next 10 days. 80 times the number of cases is already off the table, as New York would be sitting at 95% of the population having already been infected. There would basically be no new cases being reported, we're talking single or double digits daily. But if the number is actually around 40 to 50 times, then we would just be getting close to herd immunity and should cross the line in the next week to 10 days. We should start seeing their daily numbers dropping right now. Of course, reporting isn't very consistent, so any one day's numbers should be taken with a grade of slaw.
Of course, New York's numbers skew the entire country. Only a couple other states would be anywhere near the numbers needed for herd immunity. But if this does happen, it gives us something to consider for everywhere else, particularly since numbers are likely to start spiking again in May.
If this is even remotely accurate, the best thing we could do would be to return to normal. If 50 times the number of reported cases are out there and asymptomatic, then there was never any reason to close down anything to begin with (other than trying to keep the hospitals functioning, of course).
I've got my doubts that there are actually that many asymptomatic cases. For one thing, this would have to be one of, if not the most, infectious viruses ever. But I'm praying this is right. Definitely going to be watching those New York numbers. Sadly, as of 4 days ago, the CDC is now asking them to estimate how many cases they may have that are unconfirmed, which means there's going to be the potential for some wildly inaccurate reporting.
Of course, New York's numbers skew the entire country. Only a couple other states would be anywhere near the numbers needed for herd immunity. But if this does happen, it gives us something to consider for everywhere else, particularly since numbers are likely to start spiking again in May.
If this is even remotely accurate, the best thing we could do would be to return to normal. If 50 times the number of reported cases are out there and asymptomatic, then there was never any reason to close down anything to begin with (other than trying to keep the hospitals functioning, of course).
I've got my doubts that there are actually that many asymptomatic cases. For one thing, this would have to be one of, if not the most, infectious viruses ever. But I'm praying this is right. Definitely going to be watching those New York numbers. Sadly, as of 4 days ago, the CDC is now asking them to estimate how many cases they may have that are unconfirmed, which means there's going to be the potential for some wildly inaccurate reporting.
