It's important to note that FPI is not projecting yards or points; it's projecting a team's expected points added (EPA) per game. Unlike yards, which treat all situations equally, the teams with the highest defensive EPA per game will be efficient units that limit ball movement, force turnovers and keep opponents out of the end zone. The number associated with EPA per game below refers to the points per game a defense is expected to contribute to the team's net scoring margin, with an average defense expected to contribute zero net points against an average offense.
1. Alabama Crimson Tide
Predicted defensive EPA per game: plus-14.0
Returning starters: Five
2015 defensive efficiency rank: First
As the only team to finish in the top 10 in defensive efficiency in each of the past four seasons, Alabama has built a defensive dynasty that's unlikely to end in 2016. Although the Tide are tasked with replacing a number of key leaders (Reggie Ragland, A'Shawn Robinson, Jarran Reed) and defensive coordinator Kirby Smart, they have the talent and experience to fill those holes. First-team All-SEC defenders Jonathan Allen (team leader in sacks) and Eddie Jackson (team leader in interceptions) return for their senior seasons to go along withtop prospects Tim Williams, Da'Shawn Handand a boatload of blue-chip recruits. Don't be surprised if new defensive coordinator Jeremy Pruitt produces an even more dominant defense in 2016 than the one that won the national championship last season.
2. LSU Tigers
Predicted defensive EPA per game: plus-12.1
Returning starters: Nine
2015 defensive efficiency rank: 21st
With nine returning starters and the second-most ESPN 300 defensive signees in the past three seasons, new defensive coordinator Dave Aranda will have plenty of talent to work with in 2016. Aranda goes to Baton Rouge after three seasons at Wisconsin, where his Badgers allowed the fewest yards per game (289.4) and second-fewest points per drive (1.26) in the FBS, while ranking in the top 15 in defensive efficiency -- which adjusts for opponent strength and pace -- twice (2013 and 2015). Running a 3-4 scheme, Aranda will have plenty of speed at linebacker with Arden Key and Kendell Beckwith. He also will have a stable secondary with second-team All-SEC selections Jamal Adams and Tre'Davious White returning for the Tigers.
3. Florida Gators
Predicted defensive EPA per game: plus-10.8
Returning starters: Six
2015 defensive efficiency rank: 11th
Even under a more offensive-minded head coach in Jim McElwain, Florida's defense did not drop off in 2015. The Gators ranked 11th in defensive efficiency, their fourth straight season in the top 12, and seventh in QBR allowed. The Gators have to replace three All-SEC performers (Jonathan Bullard, Vernon Hargreaves III and Antonio Morrison), but they have one of the top corners in the country in Jalen Tabor and young talent to fill their holes in the front seven. Look for young blue-chip recruits like CeCe Jefferson and Antonneous Clayton to step up on the defensive line as the Gators are again expected to be elite up front.
4. Washington Huskies
Predicted defensive EPA per game: plus-10.8
Returning starters: Seven
2015 defensive efficiency rank: Ninth
In Chris Petersen's second season as Washington's head coach, the Huskies ranked in the top 10 in defensive efficiency and led the Pac-12 in points per drive allowed (1.34). With seven returning starters and an influx of young recruits, there is reason to believe the Huskies' defense could be even stronger in 2016. Led by Budda Baker and Sidney Jones, Washington's strength will be its secondary, which will come in handy in the pass-heavy Pac-12. Many expect the Huskies to compete for a Pac-12 title in 2016, and if they make that leap, their defense likely will be a major reason why.
5. Oklahoma Sooners
Predicted defensive EPA per game: plus-10.6
Returning starters: Six
2015 defensive efficiency rank: Fifth
Oklahoma finished in the top two in the Big 12 in defensive efficiency, opponent Total QBR, sacks and interceptions last season. Despite losing its leaders in tackles (Dominique Alexander), sacks (Eric Striker) and interceptions (Zack Sanchez), Oklahoma is projected by FPI again to have on average the top defense in its conference. Like Washington, Oklahoma's strength will be its secondary. Cornerback Jordan Thomas, whose five interceptions last season are the most among returning Big 12 players, is back along with both starting safeties, Steven Parker and Ahmad Thomas. With a top-five projected offense, the Sooners should be one of the most well-rounded teams in the country.
1. Alabama Crimson Tide
Predicted defensive EPA per game: plus-14.0
Returning starters: Five
2015 defensive efficiency rank: First
As the only team to finish in the top 10 in defensive efficiency in each of the past four seasons, Alabama has built a defensive dynasty that's unlikely to end in 2016. Although the Tide are tasked with replacing a number of key leaders (Reggie Ragland, A'Shawn Robinson, Jarran Reed) and defensive coordinator Kirby Smart, they have the talent and experience to fill those holes. First-team All-SEC defenders Jonathan Allen (team leader in sacks) and Eddie Jackson (team leader in interceptions) return for their senior seasons to go along withtop prospects Tim Williams, Da'Shawn Handand a boatload of blue-chip recruits. Don't be surprised if new defensive coordinator Jeremy Pruitt produces an even more dominant defense in 2016 than the one that won the national championship last season.
2. LSU Tigers
Predicted defensive EPA per game: plus-12.1
Returning starters: Nine
2015 defensive efficiency rank: 21st
With nine returning starters and the second-most ESPN 300 defensive signees in the past three seasons, new defensive coordinator Dave Aranda will have plenty of talent to work with in 2016. Aranda goes to Baton Rouge after three seasons at Wisconsin, where his Badgers allowed the fewest yards per game (289.4) and second-fewest points per drive (1.26) in the FBS, while ranking in the top 15 in defensive efficiency -- which adjusts for opponent strength and pace -- twice (2013 and 2015). Running a 3-4 scheme, Aranda will have plenty of speed at linebacker with Arden Key and Kendell Beckwith. He also will have a stable secondary with second-team All-SEC selections Jamal Adams and Tre'Davious White returning for the Tigers.
3. Florida Gators
Predicted defensive EPA per game: plus-10.8
Returning starters: Six
2015 defensive efficiency rank: 11th
Even under a more offensive-minded head coach in Jim McElwain, Florida's defense did not drop off in 2015. The Gators ranked 11th in defensive efficiency, their fourth straight season in the top 12, and seventh in QBR allowed. The Gators have to replace three All-SEC performers (Jonathan Bullard, Vernon Hargreaves III and Antonio Morrison), but they have one of the top corners in the country in Jalen Tabor and young talent to fill their holes in the front seven. Look for young blue-chip recruits like CeCe Jefferson and Antonneous Clayton to step up on the defensive line as the Gators are again expected to be elite up front.
4. Washington Huskies
Predicted defensive EPA per game: plus-10.8
Returning starters: Seven
2015 defensive efficiency rank: Ninth
In Chris Petersen's second season as Washington's head coach, the Huskies ranked in the top 10 in defensive efficiency and led the Pac-12 in points per drive allowed (1.34). With seven returning starters and an influx of young recruits, there is reason to believe the Huskies' defense could be even stronger in 2016. Led by Budda Baker and Sidney Jones, Washington's strength will be its secondary, which will come in handy in the pass-heavy Pac-12. Many expect the Huskies to compete for a Pac-12 title in 2016, and if they make that leap, their defense likely will be a major reason why.
5. Oklahoma Sooners
Predicted defensive EPA per game: plus-10.6
Returning starters: Six
2015 defensive efficiency rank: Fifth
Oklahoma finished in the top two in the Big 12 in defensive efficiency, opponent Total QBR, sacks and interceptions last season. Despite losing its leaders in tackles (Dominique Alexander), sacks (Eric Striker) and interceptions (Zack Sanchez), Oklahoma is projected by FPI again to have on average the top defense in its conference. Like Washington, Oklahoma's strength will be its secondary. Cornerback Jordan Thomas, whose five interceptions last season are the most among returning Big 12 players, is back along with both starting safeties, Steven Parker and Ahmad Thomas. With a top-five projected offense, the Sooners should be one of the most well-rounded teams in the country.
