This storm is kinda of a late bloomer meaning this wasn’t something we saw a week ago or so and have been watching it. In the last few days the threat for severe weather including tornadoes has been growing. A QLCS (broken squall line) will intensify and race across the state and be in ETn late afternoon. Shear will be quite strong but this time we will have some surface based instability to work with. A warm front will lift north during the morning, skies will clear out and the wind will pick up. This is not as of now a “tornado outbreak” situation but it’s possible there could be a few discreet supercells form in front of the line. These storms would be the ones we would need to watch for tornadoes. There could also be a chance for tornadoes embedded within the QLCS line. We will continue to monitor and update going forward. The plateau and SE Tennessee as of now looks like the sweet spot.
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN AL...NORTHERN GA...UPSTATE SC...FAR WESTERN NC AND SOUTHEAST TN...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing swaths of damaging gusts and tornadoes are expected across a broad area from the Deep South into the southern Appalachians on Wednesday. The greatest risk area will encompass portions of central/northern Alabama into southeast Tennessee, far western North Carolina/South Carolina and northern Georgia.
...Deep South to the Southern Appalachians...
A closed upper low and its attendant trough will deep and shift east from the Plains to the Upper Great Lakes/MS Valley on Wednesday. This will maintain deep-layer southwesterly flow across the Gulf Coast states into the Mid-Atlantic, resulting in a broad warm-advection regime ahead of the trough. A strong low-level jet around 40-50 kt will be somewhat more focused across parts of MS/AL into the Carolinas ahead of a strong surface cold front. This surface front is forecast to extend roughly from southeast MO into east-central TX Wednesday morning, while a warm front extends from the southern TN border into Upstate SC. The warm front should lift north into NC and possibly southern VA late in the period while the cold front sweeps eastward across the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast.
A seasonally moist boundary layer will exist ahead of the surging cold front, with surface dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s across much of the southern/southeastern U.S. This will aid in moderate destabilization of a strongly sheared environment. Deep-layer flow largely parallel to the surface cold front will support linear convection, with another QLCS sweeping east across the southern U.S. likely. A swath of damaging gusts will accompany organized convection through the daytime across parts of MS/AL/TN/GA and into the southern Appalachians, the Carolinas and southern GA/northern FL during the evening/overnight. While damaging gusts appear the most likely hazard at this time, tornado potential will exist as well, both within the QLCS/mesovortices and in any semi-discrete convection should it develop ahead of the line
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN AL...NORTHERN GA...UPSTATE SC...FAR WESTERN NC AND SOUTHEAST TN...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing swaths of damaging gusts and tornadoes are expected across a broad area from the Deep South into the southern Appalachians on Wednesday. The greatest risk area will encompass portions of central/northern Alabama into southeast Tennessee, far western North Carolina/South Carolina and northern Georgia.
...Deep South to the Southern Appalachians...
A closed upper low and its attendant trough will deep and shift east from the Plains to the Upper Great Lakes/MS Valley on Wednesday. This will maintain deep-layer southwesterly flow across the Gulf Coast states into the Mid-Atlantic, resulting in a broad warm-advection regime ahead of the trough. A strong low-level jet around 40-50 kt will be somewhat more focused across parts of MS/AL into the Carolinas ahead of a strong surface cold front. This surface front is forecast to extend roughly from southeast MO into east-central TX Wednesday morning, while a warm front extends from the southern TN border into Upstate SC. The warm front should lift north into NC and possibly southern VA late in the period while the cold front sweeps eastward across the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast.
A seasonally moist boundary layer will exist ahead of the surging cold front, with surface dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s across much of the southern/southeastern U.S. This will aid in moderate destabilization of a strongly sheared environment. Deep-layer flow largely parallel to the surface cold front will support linear convection, with another QLCS sweeping east across the southern U.S. likely. A swath of damaging gusts will accompany organized convection through the daytime across parts of MS/AL/TN/GA and into the southern Appalachians, the Carolinas and southern GA/northern FL during the evening/overnight. While damaging gusts appear the most likely hazard at this time, tornado potential will exist as well, both within the QLCS/mesovortices and in any semi-discrete convection should it develop ahead of the line
